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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
مجلة تكريت للعلوم السياسية
نوع المكاسب اثرها في التفاعلات التعاونية الدولية: دراسة في انماط سلوكيات الدول حيال التحديات المناخية
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في هذا البحث، تم استكشاف تأثير نوع المكاسب على التفاعلات التعاونية الدولية لاسيما في مجال مواجهة التحديات المناخية. إذ تبين أن المكاسب النسبية تلعب دورا حاسما في توجيه سلوك الدول فيما يتعلق بالاتفاقيات البيئية الدولية. ويعكس هذا التحليل دروسا مهمة لصياغة السياسات والجهود الدولية في هذا المجال ذاته. ان الدول عندما تتوقع مكاسب نسبية تفوق الخسائر المتوقعة من التعاون، فإنها تكون أكثر عرضة للالتزام بالاتفاقيات

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
مجلة علوم الرياضة في جامعة ديالى
إتخاذ القرار و علاقته بإنماط الشخصية و الإدراك البنائي لدى مدراء منتديات الشباب و الرياضة في محافظات الفرات الأوسط و الجنوبية.
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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of the statistical methods used to Forecast the size of the Iraqi GDP for the two sectors (public and private) for the period (2025-2016)
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Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important measure of the size of the economy's production. Economists use this term to determine the extent of decline and growth in the economies of countries. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them to each other. The research aims at describing and analyzing the GDP during the period from 1980 to 2015 and for the public and private sectors and then forecasting GDP in subsequent years until 2025. To achieve this goal, two methods were used: linear and nonlinear regression. The second method in the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins models and the using of statistical package (Minitab17), (GRETLW32)) to extract the results, and then comparing the two methods, T

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 14 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Vocabulary Learning Strategies Employed by English as Foreign Language Students at NBU University
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ABSTRACT

Learning vocabulary is a challenging task for female English as a foreign language (EFL) students. Thus, improving students’ knowledge of vocabulary is critical if they are to make progress in learning a new language. The current study aimed at exploring the vocabulary learning strategies used by EFL students at Northern Border University (NBU). It also aimed to identify the mechanisms applied by EFL students at NBU University to learn vocabulary. It also aimed at evaluating the approaches adopted by EFL female students at Northern Border University (NBU) to learn a language. The study adopted the descriptive-analytical method. Two research instruments were developed to collect data namely, a survey qu

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 03 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The impact of creative accounting practices that are reflected on the sincerity and fairness of financial statements on tax evasion
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The research aims to achieve a set of objectives, the most important of which is to educate the management of companies operating in the private sector about the advantages and risks of using creative accounting practices, as on the one hand they serve the interests of the company and improve its image, and on the other hand it exposes it to the risks of non-compliance with tax laws and legislation or the risks of default and bankruptcy as a result of exploiting gaps and flexibility in the application Accounting standards, and in line with the objectives and through the research problem that was formulated in the form of a question (Are their creative accounting practices that are reflected in the honesty and fairness of financia

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 06 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Main Difficulties Faced by EFL Students in Language Learning
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Many undergraduate learners at English departments who study English as a foreign language are unable to speak and use language correctly in their post -graduate careers.  This problem can be attributed to certain difficulties, which they faced throughout their education years that hinder their endeavors to learn. Therefore, this study aims to discover the main difficulties faced by EFL students in language learning and test the difficulty variable according to gender and college variables then find suitable solutions for enhancing learning.  A questionnaire with 15 items and 5 scales were used to help in discovering the difficulties. The questionnaire was distributed to the selected sample of study wh

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of Alstonia Boonei Stem Bark Extracts on the Activity of Liver Maker Enzymes in Rats Induced by Ccl4
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This study investigated the outcome of Alstonia boonei stem bark on liver enzymes after inducing the Wistar albino rats with carbon tetrachloride (CCl4). This effect of plant extract was compared with silymarin – a drug commonly used for the treatment of chronic hepatocyte disorder. The plant sample was extracted with ethanol; acute toxicity study of the extract was performed on eighteen Wistar mice, while 30 rats were sacrificed for liver enzymes assay. The rats were divided into six clusters: each cluster has five rats, culster 1 served as control and was given 2 mL/kg b.w - distilled water; clusters 2 – 6 were CCl4 induced. Cluster 2 was untreated but served as the negative control while cluster 3 wa

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Scopus (1)
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Publication Date
Wed Oct 05 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
Relationship of psychological time with elements of movie's expression Example) movies, which their events takes, place in one day / as)
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This research deals with and which was entitled: relationship between psychological time and elements of filming expression (one-day event filmsas an example). It is about the relationship of psychological time (internal) with the elements of filming expression and how the time affected when using these elements in terms of its deceleration or acceleration. In particular, this research focus on elements that slow down time or stops it when using these elements. As one day time is short and heavy at the time of spectators in terms of the large number of film events which makes the viewer runs out of breath to understand the nature of those events and then identify the causes and consequences, as they occur in a short time (one day time) a

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The psychological, social and academic problems that encounter students of college of education in Al-Anbaar University /Al-qaim
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The study aims to identify the psychological, social, and academic problems that encounter students at the college of education. To this end, the researcher utilized the descriptive approach, where a questionnaire was used as a tool to collect the study data. The findings of study revealed that the main academic problems are inability to understand what the students read, lack of concentration over the process of studying. The Difficulty of preparation for test. Lack of ability to memorize quickly. As for the prominent social problems: the excessive usage of social media that drove students away from their main tasks, the Lack of participation in social activities, the scarcity the religious information. The psychological problems includ

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
" The role of applying the international standards of the Supreme Audit Institutions in achieving administrative reform and improving performance "
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Abstract

The aim of the research is to introduce the international standards of the Supreme audit Institutions, as well as the role of these standards in achieving administrative reform and improving the performance of the Supreme audit Institutions and the performance of the economic units under its control.

In order to achieve the objectives of the research, a questionnaire was designed from two main axes that included a number of questions addressed to a number of officials and employees of the Supreme Audit Institutions and its affiliated bodies on the role of applying the international standards of the Supreme Audit Institutions in achieving administrative re

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