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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Use of Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Method in Investigating The Impact of Interest Rate on Foreign Direct Investment in Yemen for the Period 1990-2018
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 Foreign direct investment has seen increasing interest worldwide, especially in developing economies. However, statistics have shown that Yemen received fluctuating FDI inflows during the period under study. Against this background, this research seeks to determine the relationship and impact of interest rates on FDI flows. The study also found other determinants that greatly affected FDI inflows in Yemen for the period 1990-2018. Study data collected from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund databases. It also ensured that the time series were made balanced and interconnected, and then the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag method used in the analysis. The results showed that the interest rates and

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Extent of the Practice of Iraqi Banks to Manage Profits Using the (LLp it) Model and Its Reflection on the Tax Base, A Case Study of A Sample of Iraqi Private Banks Listed in The Iraqi Stock Exchange
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The research aims to identify the extent to which Iraqi private banks practice profit management motivated by reducing the taxable base by increasing the provision for loan losses by relying on the LLP it model, which consists of a main independent variable (net profit before tax) and independent sub-variables (bank size, total debts to total equity, loans granted to total obligations) under the name of the variables governing the banking business. (Colmgrove-Smirnov) was used to test the normal distribution of data for all banks during the period 2017-2020, and then find the correlation between the main independent variable sub and the dependent variable by means of the correlation coefficient person, and then using the multiple

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
مجلة علوم الرياضة في جامعة ديالى
إتخاذ القرار و علاقته بإنماط الشخصية و الإدراك البنائي لدى مدراء منتديات الشباب و الرياضة في محافظات الفرات الأوسط و الجنوبية.
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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of risk management programs in Dealing With risks at international airports: An Applied research at Baghdad International Airport
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The objective of the research is to identify the efficiency of risk management in various names at Baghdad International Airport in the face of various risks (financial - technical - human - natural ..) facing the sample of the search of the General Establishment of Civil Aviation and the Iraqi Airways Company where the researcher identified the hypothesis that summarizes There is a significant significant correlation between risk management, risk management and risk review and assessment. The researcher used the means of research from observation and interviews with the relevant officials in this field, as well as used the questionnaire and distributed a sample of 170 employees in the field of risk management (SMS Department) in Iraqi A

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
مجلة تكريت للعلوم السياسية
نوع المكاسب اثرها في التفاعلات التعاونية الدولية: دراسة في انماط سلوكيات الدول حيال التحديات المناخية
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في هذا البحث، تم استكشاف تأثير نوع المكاسب على التفاعلات التعاونية الدولية لاسيما في مجال مواجهة التحديات المناخية. إذ تبين أن المكاسب النسبية تلعب دورا حاسما في توجيه سلوك الدول فيما يتعلق بالاتفاقيات البيئية الدولية. ويعكس هذا التحليل دروسا مهمة لصياغة السياسات والجهود الدولية في هذا المجال ذاته. ان الدول عندما تتوقع مكاسب نسبية تفوق الخسائر المتوقعة من التعاون، فإنها تكون أكثر عرضة للالتزام بالاتفاقيات

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of the statistical methods used to Forecast the size of the Iraqi GDP for the two sectors (public and private) for the period (2025-2016)
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Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important measure of the size of the economy's production. Economists use this term to determine the extent of decline and growth in the economies of countries. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them to each other. The research aims at describing and analyzing the GDP during the period from 1980 to 2015 and for the public and private sectors and then forecasting GDP in subsequent years until 2025. To achieve this goal, two methods were used: linear and nonlinear regression. The second method in the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins models and the using of statistical package (Minitab17), (GRETLW32)) to extract the results, and then comparing the two methods, T

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The psychological, social and academic problems that encounter students of college of education in Al-Anbaar University /Al-qaim
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The study aims to identify the psychological, social, and academic problems that encounter students at the college of education. To this end, the researcher utilized the descriptive approach, where a questionnaire was used as a tool to collect the study data. The findings of study revealed that the main academic problems are inability to understand what the students read, lack of concentration over the process of studying. The Difficulty of preparation for test. Lack of ability to memorize quickly. As for the prominent social problems: the excessive usage of social media that drove students away from their main tasks, the Lack of participation in social activities, the scarcity the religious information. The psychological problems includ

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 06 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Main Difficulties Faced by EFL Students in Language Learning
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Many undergraduate learners at English departments who study English as a foreign language are unable to speak and use language correctly in their post -graduate careers.  This problem can be attributed to certain difficulties, which they faced throughout their education years that hinder their endeavors to learn. Therefore, this study aims to discover the main difficulties faced by EFL students in language learning and test the difficulty variable according to gender and college variables then find suitable solutions for enhancing learning.  A questionnaire with 15 items and 5 scales were used to help in discovering the difficulties. The questionnaire was distributed to the selected sample of study wh

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 05 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
Relationship of psychological time with elements of movie's expression Example) movies, which their events takes, place in one day / as)
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This research deals with and which was entitled: relationship between psychological time and elements of filming expression (one-day event filmsas an example). It is about the relationship of psychological time (internal) with the elements of filming expression and how the time affected when using these elements in terms of its deceleration or acceleration. In particular, this research focus on elements that slow down time or stops it when using these elements. As one day time is short and heavy at the time of spectators in terms of the large number of film events which makes the viewer runs out of breath to understand the nature of those events and then identify the causes and consequences, as they occur in a short time (one day time) a

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