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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2018
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Ibn Abi Shaybah's responses to Abu Hanifa in the evidence that he claimed to violate in the transactions In the doctrinal balance
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Imam Ibn Abi Shaybah counted in his book classified twenty-five and a hundred recent and impact claimed that Abu Hanifa has violated the provisions required by apparent, and these conversations and effects including with regard to worship and transactions, including with regard to personal status, including with regard to borders and felonies, and collected by Sheikh Muhammad Zahid Al-Kothari in his book funny jokes in talking about the responses of Ibn Abu Shaybah on Abu Hanifa, and these issues we will study in our research.

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
ISO 9001: International Standards and their impact on achieving competitive advantage /An Applied at the private colleges in Iraq
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The results of the analysis showed that there is a correlation between ISO 9001    and the competitive advantage, which shows that the implementation of ISO 9001 in the private colleges achieves a competitive advantage through its ability to employ the entrance of quality systems management according to ISO 9001, By focusing on improving the quality of its educational services in accordance with a clear and understandable policy for all and its ability to meet the expectations, expectations and wishes of students and beneficiaries, which leads to lower costs of operations compared to other colleges and achieve a higher level of reliability and quality and value of services provided and rapid respon

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Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
مقارنة بين الطريقة التقليدية Classical Method وطريقة تحليل الطيف Spectral Analysis لإيجاد ثابت التمهيد التكيفي عند وجود قيم شاذة Outlier Values
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   In this paper , two method which deal with finding the optimal value for adaptive smoothing constant, are compared .This constant is used in adaptive Single Exponential Smoothing (ASES).

The comparing is between a method uses time domain and another uses frequency domain when the data contain outlier value for autoregressive model of order one AR(1) , or Markov Model, when the time series are stationary and non stationary with deferent samples .    

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Dec 31 2012
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The hadiths that al-Mazy cited in his book "Tuhfat al-Ashraf" from the Imam Ahmad Imam's collection and study
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This research seeks to attempt to reveal the intention of Al-Hafiz Al-Mazi from his market to hadiths from Imam Ahmad’s Musnad in his book “Masterpiece of Supervision in Knowing the Parties”, and researchers know that this book was classified by Al-Mazi to collect the parties to the six books: Sahih Al-Bukhari, Sahih Muslim, Sunan Abi Dawud, Jamea Al-Tirmidhi and Sunan Al-Nasa’i and Sunan Ibn Majah, in addition to some of the books ’authors’ books, and arranging them according to the Musnad, and it is not Musnad Ahmad from his condition, even if it is close to the arrangement of Mazi’s work, as he was a follower of that to the original owner Abu al-Qasim bin Asaker in his book “Supervising Knowledge of the Parties” in M

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The obstacles that encounter a program of rehabilitating released prisoners as perceived by prisoners themselves in tubas' province
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The study intends to explore the obstacles that encounter a program of rehabilitating released prisoners as perceived by prisoners themselves in tubas' province. To this end, the researcher used a questionnaire as an instrument which was applied on (150) prisoner had chosen randomly to collect the study data. The findings revealed no significant differences among obstacles the encounter program regarding to the following variables: age, detention period, and number of detention, additionally, the findings found that there is a variance of obstacles mean according to the prisoners themselves, rehabilitation program, and the facility of that program.

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
المشكلات التي يعاني منها تدريسيي جامعة بغداد من وجهة نظرهم وسبل حلها
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The research endeavored to single out the problems, difficulties and obstacles faced by the members of the staff of Baghdad University. The importance of research, then, depends upon the importance of the university lecturers and their vital role in developing the society.  The goals of the research are summarized in knowing the main problems facing those university lectures and relative weight  of these problems in addition to identifying the differences in their opinions to these problems according to the specializations variables (scientific, humanistic), the gender (males, females) and the Scientific grade (professor, assistant professor, lecturer, assistant lecturer.

The research is limited

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Local Dependence for Bivariate Weibull Distributions Created by Archimedean Copula
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In multivariate survival analysis, estimating the multivariate distribution functions and then measuring the association between survival times are of great interest. Copula functions, such as Archimedean Copulas, are commonly used to estimate the unknown bivariate distributions based on known marginal functions. In this paper the feasibility of using the idea of local dependence to identify the most efficient copula model, which is used to construct a bivariate Weibull distribution for bivariate Survival times, among some Archimedean copulas is explored. Furthermore, to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed procedure, a simulation study is implemented. It is shown that this approach is useful for practical situations and applicable fo

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Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Procedures for auditing accounting violations according to international auditing : standards in the Karbala Municipality Directorate
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The research aims to identify the definitional framework for accounting violations and audit procedures in accordance with international auditing standards, preparing a proposed audit program to audit violations resulting from the transition to the unified accounting system in the research sample according to the relevant international auditing standards, as the proposed audit program was prepared according to International auditing standards in order to improve the auditor’s procedures in detecting accounting violations when auditing the financial statements of municipal departments. The research concluded the most important recommendations: The necessity of adopting the audit program proposed by the researcher, for the purpose of act

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 16 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
دور معايير التدقيق الدولية في تعزيز خدمات التأكيد: بحث تطبيقي على عينه من مراقبي الحسابات
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Publication Date
Tue Dec 22 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Measuring Operational Risk on according to International Requirements: An Applied Research in Bank of Baghdad- Private Shareholders Organization
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This research aims to study and evaluate the reality of the Iraqi banks in terms of how they cope with the risks of the banking business, specifically banking operational risks, and to develop a model integrated to define, identify, measure and mitigate the impact of these risks on according to the Basel Committee requirements II about the dangers of Alchgal.uchir major search to the presence of weak results in the Iraqi banks in understanding and defining and measuring operational risks and not hedged properly, which avoids those banks operating losses as well as the results show there is a shortage in the equation of capital adequacy applied by the Iraqi banks because of non-observance of the minimum capital required to counter the ris

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