تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
The research aims to find out the difficulties of studying the subject of modern and contemporary history and its proposed solutions from the point of view of the students of the literary sixth in the secondary schools of the Directorate of Education Rusafa I-Baghdad, the research community of students of the literary sixth stage, which Number(150) students,and to achieve the- And Fisher's equation-and percent weight).The results showed the existence of a number of real difficulties achieved for the study of modern and contemporary history of the sixth literature, and the data showed the existence of Unreal difficulties diagnosed from the students ' point of view .In light of this, the researcher dev
... Show MoreWe have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.
The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F
... Show MoreThe research aims to determine the strength of the relationship between time management and work pressure and administrative leadership, where he was taken a sample of (47) of the administrative leadership at the Higher Institute of security and administrative development in the Ministry of Interior was used questionnaire as a key tool in collecting data and information and analyzed the answers to the sample surveyed by using Statistical program (spss) in the arithmetic mean of the calculation and test (t) and the correlation coefficient, the research found the most important results: the existence of significant moral positive relationship between both time management and work pressure and administrative leadership, the leadership of th
... Show MoreThis study dealt with the management strategy as an independent variable and the integrated industrial distribution as a variable. The study aimed at finding the integrated industrial distribution that fits with the management strategy in providing the needs of the firm on the one hand and reducing the cost of management that is reflected in increasing its profits.
The researcher selected the data from (130) decision makers in the corporation and used the questionnaire as a tool for collecting data and used a set of statistical tools and tools suitable for the nature of information and were processed using the data analysis system (SPSS version 24) Based on the analysis of the responses of the sample and the test of correlation and
Abstract
Research aims : The aim of the research is to evaluate the reality of the inspection teams' work in the health institutions belonging to Dhi-Qar health office .
Purpose: This research seeks to present a point of view based on knowing the extent of health service quality in Dhi-Qar governorate and discover the role of the inspection teams in enhancing the health service.
Design / Methodology/ Approach: The experimental method has been used and the questionnaire has also been used to collect data in order to develop a reliable and correct measurement model for the research's variables . The research's hypotheses have been tested through using some statistical treat
... Show MoreThe current research aims at finding out how to properly and correctly manage waste and solid waste and reduce the difficulties faced by all countries. However, it is becoming increasingly acute in developed cities because their economies are growing rapidly. It is necessary to identify the modern methods used in developed countries in managing wastes. The use of modern waste management techniques is a coordinated effort by international agencies within the borders responsible for them. The problem of the study can be identified in the lack of clarity of environmental management procedures in place. The importance of the research contributes to providing greater capacity to the administrative and technical leadership in the municipality
... Show MoreEmployee Stealing or internal theft is considered from the passive practices that can’t be denied or be hidden, In spite of the hospital privacy as a serving organization that works 24\7 and deleing with human lives, they weren’t infallible from that kind of practice. To prevent or reduce this practice, it was important to search for the organizational and behavioral factors influencing internal thefts. The study problem briefly is to reach the most organizational and behavioral factors influencing internal theft, in governmental hospitals in Baghdad Rusafa Health district, this was done by analyzing (20) administrative cases of thefts occurred in the District, also a sample of (60) specialist Doctor’s opinion work, in (3) hospital
... Show MoreOver the years, the issue of inclusion of students with special educational needs (SEN) in mainstream schools is controversial worldwide. Evidence from research argues that without a positive teachers’ attitude towards the inclusion of students with SEN in mainstream schools, the successful implementation of inclusion is most likely doubtable. The aim of this paper is to understand teachers’ attitudes towards the inclusion of students with SEN in mainstream schools from different perspectives and from different contexts. The conclusion drawn in this review can be that teachers’ attitude is the most important key towards the appropriate inclusion implementation in mainstream schools. The disparity of teachers’ attitudes towards th
... Show MoreDamascus has great importance throughout its history and has increased in the Umayyad period, It was interested the by Caliphs, and became the capital of the Islam, But the late Umayyad era has witness of troubles and political, this led to collapse the Umayyad state and take the Abbasid rule, despite the neglect of the Abbasids for this city and they left to others, but it remains of great concern by some of the Abbasid caliphs.