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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020

تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
نظام النقد والتمويـل في البنك المركزي العراقـي: دراسة حالة

This research attempts to study Monetary system status and financing in the CIB through 4 sections, starting with the methodology and ending with conclusions and recommendations.

             These two topics of Monetary and financing, that falls within the mandate of the CBI, are researched / studied relying on the resources and relevant literature. This research is a simple contribution, but meantime it is an honest attempt to elevate the effective role of the CBI which is considered one of the most pioneering central banks in the region.

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 14 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Creeping Gait Analysis and Simulation of a Quadruped Robot

A quadruped (four-legged) robot locomotion has the potential ability for using in different applications such as walking over soft and rough terrains and to grantee the mobility and flexibility. In general, quadruped robots have three main periodic gaits:  creeping gait, running gait and galloping gait. The main problem of the quadruped robot during walking is the needing to be statically stable for slow gaits such as creeping gait. The statically stable walking as a condition depends on the stability margins that calculated particularly for this gait. In this paper, the creeping gait sequence analysis of each leg step during the swing and fixed phases has been carried out. The calculation of the minimum stability margins depends up

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Recurrent Stroke Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms with Clinical Public Datasets: An Empirical Performance Evaluation

Recurrent strokes can be devastating, often resulting in severe disability or death. However, nearly 90% of the causes of recurrent stroke are modifiable, which means recurrent strokes can be averted by controlling risk factors, which are mainly behavioral and metabolic in nature. Thus, it shows that from the previous works that recurrent stroke prediction model could help in minimizing the possibility of getting recurrent stroke. Previous works have shown promising results in predicting first-time stroke cases with machine learning approaches. However, there are limited works on recurrent stroke prediction using machine learning methods. Hence, this work is proposed to perform an empirical analysis and to investigate machine learning al

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 02 2020
Journal Name
مجلة العلوم الاقتصادية والإدارية
تقييم الاداء المصرفي على وفق نموذج CAMELS دراسة تطبيقية لمصرف المنصور للاستثمار للفترة من 2014-2018

The banking sector has a significant impact on the economic growth of the country, and the importance of this sector must assess its financial performance from time to time, to measure the situation related to money for each bank and how to put the supervision of the efficiency of the full. The research aims at evaluating the financial performance according to the elements of the CAMELS model, which including capital adequacy, asset quality, management efficiency, profitability, liquidity and market risk sensitivity. The research included the study of Al-Mansour Investment Bank during the period from 2014 to 2018. The base capital ratio was used to total assets to measure capital adequacy The proportion of investments to total assets to mea

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation of banking performance according to the CAMELS model An applied study of Al-Mansour Investment Bank for the period 2014-2018.

The banking sector has a significant impact on the economic growth of the country, and the importance of this sector must assess its financial performance from time to time, to measure the situation related to money for each bank and how to put the supervision of the efficiency of the full. The research aims at evaluating the financial performance according to the elements of the CAMELS model, which including capital adequacy, asset quality, management efficiency, profitability, liquidity, and market risk sensitivity. The research included the study of Al-Mansour Investment Bank during the period from 2014 to 2018. The base capital ratio was used to total assets to measure capital adequacy The proportion of investments to total a

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of risk management programs in Dealing With risks at international airports: An Applied research at Baghdad International Airport

The objective of the research is to identify the efficiency of risk management in various names at Baghdad International Airport in the face of various risks (financial - technical - human - natural ..) facing the sample of the search of the General Establishment of Civil Aviation and the Iraqi Airways Company where the researcher identified the hypothesis that summarizes There is a significant significant correlation between risk management, risk management and risk review and assessment. The researcher used the means of research from observation and interviews with the relevant officials in this field, as well as used the questionnaire and distributed a sample of 170 employees in the field of risk management (SMS Department) in Iraqi A

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
مجلة تكريت للعلوم السياسية
نوع المكاسب اثرها في التفاعلات التعاونية الدولية: دراسة في انماط سلوكيات الدول حيال التحديات المناخية

في هذا البحث، تم استكشاف تأثير نوع المكاسب على التفاعلات التعاونية الدولية لاسيما في مجال مواجهة التحديات المناخية. إذ تبين أن المكاسب النسبية تلعب دورا حاسما في توجيه سلوك الدول فيما يتعلق بالاتفاقيات البيئية الدولية. ويعكس هذا التحليل دروسا مهمة لصياغة السياسات والجهود الدولية في هذا المجال ذاته. ان الدول عندما تتوقع مكاسب نسبية تفوق الخسائر المتوقعة من التعاون، فإنها تكون أكثر عرضة للالتزام بالاتفاقيات

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Use of Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Method in Investigating The Impact of Interest Rate on Foreign Direct Investment in Yemen for the Period 1990-2018

 Foreign direct investment has seen increasing interest worldwide, especially in developing economies. However, statistics have shown that Yemen received fluctuating FDI inflows during the period under study. Against this background, this research seeks to determine the relationship and impact of interest rates on FDI flows. The study also found other determinants that greatly affected FDI inflows in Yemen for the period 1990-2018. Study data collected from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund databases. It also ensured that the time series were made balanced and interconnected, and then the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag method used in the analysis. The results showed that the interest rates and

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 04 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
Economic losses caused by mole cricket Gryllotalpa gryllotalpa on some vegetable plants and agricultural crops: Economic losses caused by mole cricket Gryllotalpa gryllotalpa on some vegetable plants and agricultural crops

The study was conducted to estimate the economic losses caused by insect mole cricket Gryllotalpa gryllotalpa on some agricultural crops and Potato tubers in collage of Agriculture- Abu Ghraib season 2012-2013. Study showed Mole cricket caused percentage of infestation in spring potato tubers variety Luciana reached to 11.61% and the percentage of loss in weight of tubers reached 18.88%. The study showed that addition of animal manure (organic fertilizer) to the soil when planting potatoes in the autumn increased the incidence of infestation and the number of tunnels caused by mole cricket which led to from increased economic losses. When matured potato tubers were left for a longer period in the soil percentage of infestation by mole cr

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The psychological, social and academic problems that encounter students of college of education in Al-Anbaar University /Al-qaim

The study aims to identify the psychological, social, and academic problems that encounter students at the college of education. To this end, the researcher utilized the descriptive approach, where a questionnaire was used as a tool to collect the study data. The findings of study revealed that the main academic problems are inability to understand what the students read, lack of concentration over the process of studying. The Difficulty of preparation for test. Lack of ability to memorize quickly. As for the prominent social problems: the excessive usage of social media that drove students away from their main tasks, the Lack of participation in social activities, the scarcity the religious information. The psychological problems includ

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