تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
أن التركيب الهيكلي للجسم وقياساته الجسمية لها دورا ً كبيرا ً ومهما ً في الأداء الرياضي وتعتبر أحد أسس النجاح أو الفشل للفعالية التي يزاولها الرياضي ، كون توافر القياسات الجسمية الملائمة لمزاولة فعالية معينة تمنح الرياضي فرصة أكبر لإستيعاب الأداء الحركي السليم للمهارات ، ولكون فعالية الوثب العالي تعد واحدة من فعاليات ألعاب الساحة والميدان التي شملها التطور المتسارع في إنجازها لذا أرتأى الباحثون أن يتم أختي
... Show MoreIn this paper has been one study of autoregressive generalized conditional heteroscedasticity models existence of the seasonal component, for the purpose applied to the daily financial data at high frequency is characterized by Heteroscedasticity seasonal conditional, it has been depending on Multiplicative seasonal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic Models Which is symbolized by the Acronym (SGARCH) , which has proven effective expression of seasonal phenomenon as opposed to the usual GARCH models. The summarizing of the research work studying the daily data for the price of the dinar exchange rate against the dollar, has been used autocorrelation function to detect seasonal first, then was diagnosed wi
... Show MoreIn this research, we sought to identify the nature of the relationship between the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan and the value of Chinese exports, through the formulation of a standard model based on the model of common integration, and based on the data of the study and using the test "Angel-Granger" It reflects the relationship between the two research variables, through which the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the value of Chinese exports was estimated during the period 1978-2017.
لخلاصة Nuclear energy is among the most important discoveries reached by the human terms contributed to the solution of many problems faced by the states. The last of these that are not only utilizing it in a peaceful area, but tended toward the military field and the nuclear weapons industry , Among these countries, we find North Korea, which has openly declared their manufacture of nuclear weapons and thus entry to the club of nuclear countries. International Atomic Energy Agency has worked to resolve the North Korea standoff but has not been able to achieve positive results, prompting the intervention of European countries in order to end the crisis. تعدُّ الطاقة النووية من بين أهم الاستكشافا
... Show Moreيعد الصراعات الدولية ظاهرةقديمة قدم البشرية وعلى المستوى الدولي وغالبا ما تكون الدول الصغرى هي الساحة لتصفية الصرااعت بين الدول الكبرى كما هو الحال في سوريا مما يؤدي لعدوم وجود امن انساني فيها
The Wang-Ball polynomials operational matrices of the derivatives are used in this study to solve singular perturbed second-order differential equations (SPSODEs) with boundary conditions. Using the matrix of Wang-Ball polynomials, the main singular perturbation problem is converted into linear algebraic equation systems. The coefficients of the required approximate solution are obtained from the solution of this system. The residual correction approach was also used to improve an error, and the results were compared to other reported numerical methods. Several examples are used to illustrate both the reliability and usefulness of the Wang-Ball operational matrices. The Wang Ball approach has the ability to improve the outcomes by minimi
... Show MoreThe research talks about the most important challenges facing Muslim youth of their ideological, social and economic types, and the youth is facing several problems, the most important of which are the intellectual and social invasion to which the Islamic nation has been exposed and ways to address them from a Quranic perspective and find solutions to these problems and these challenges in accordance with Islamic Sharia and the texts of the Holy Quran. From three topics and several demands, during which the researcher tried to find solutions to each challenge through the verses of the Noble Qur’an.
The research talks about the most important challenges facing Muslim youth of their ideological, social and economic types, and the youth is facing several problems, the most important of which are the intellectual and social invasion to which the Islamic nation has been exposed and ways to address them from a Quranic perspective and find solutions to these problems and these challenges in accordance with Islamic Sharia and the texts of the Holy Quran. From three topics and several demands, during which the researcher tried to find solutions to each challenge through the verses of the Noble Qur’an.
The purpose of the current research is to identify the most important problems that primary school students suffer from inside and outside the classroom from the point of view of their teachers. A sample of (100) male and female teachers was chosen from the Rusafa\ second Directorate for the academic year (2018-2019). The research tool was prepared after reviewing literature related to the issue of problems and difficulties facing students or students in the school stage and even at university. The researcher reached several results that were discussed in the fourth chapter, with a set of conclusions based on the results of the research, and come up with several recommendations and suggestions.
At a time when any tourist in the world wants a trip to reload his energy and enjoy peace and quiet and engage in adventures in a safe environment, terrorism comes to disturb him on that journey through operations aimed at the tourist and entertainment destinations, such as shops, restaurants, cafes and hotels Is the orbit of research) for many reasons. The security measures taken by hotels play an important and fundamental role in preventing or limiting these terrorist operations. At the same time, while some hotel administrations are constantly seeking to improve these measures to preserve the safety of their guests and visitors, In spite of the high number of attacks on hotels since 2001 and today. This research is intended to highlight
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