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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Conductivity Study of DTAB in Water and Ethanol-Water Mixture in the Presence and Absence of ZnSO4
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The physicochemical behaviour of dodecyltrimethylammonium bromide (DTAB) in water and ethanol-water mixture in the presence and absence of ZnSO4 were studied by measuring the conductivity at 298.15 K. The pre-micellar (S1) and post-micellar slopes (S2) were obtained and calculated the degree of dissociation (α) and the critical micelle concentration (cmc). With an increase in ethanol content, the cmc and α of DTAB increased whereas, in the presence of ZnSO4, the cmc and α decreased. By using cmc and α, thermodynamic properties as the standard free energy of micellization ( ) were evaluated. With an increase in ethanol content, the negative values of  are decreased indicating less spont

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Using Waks Strategy Upon Acquisition The Psychological Concepts And Mind Habits for Students of College of Education
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  The aim of research is to identify the effect of using Waks strategy upon acquiring the psychological concepts and mind habits for students in the college of education. An experimental design with a partial adjustment of two experimental and control groups as well as a posttest were employed. The researcher divided the study sample into two groups: group one consisted of (38) students to represent the experimental group that was taught according to the waks strategy, and group two consisted of (35) students to represent the control group that was taught according to the traditional method. The sample was chosen based on some variables namely (Intelligence, Prior knowledge). The researcher has designed the research tools as th

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effect of strategic thinking in human resource management strategies “Analytical field study of the views of a sample of managers in the Iraqi Ministry of Health”
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The researcher attempts to diagnose the level of the effect  of strategic thinking skills (intuition, meditation, creativity) of the managers in the Ministry of Health in Iraq and some of its institutions in the formulation of human resources management: (selection, training, incentivence , performance appraisal (Recognizing the importance of the subjects studied, and because of the importance of the expected results of th

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The effect of transparency on job satisfaction: An applied research in sample of national insurance companies
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Transparency considered being one of the modern administrational terms which started to be largely used in the last period, because of its political, economical, social and cultural dimensions. As well as, its administrational dimension that helps to create a work environment marked by order and flawless from wrong practices and Transparency provides credibility to the sides that pursue it in their practices, till it became a mean of distinction. The choice of the subject of the research ((Transparency and its effect on Level of Job satisfactions of Workers in General Insurance company)), which aims to measure the effect of Transparency in Level of Job satisfactions of Workers in Insurance company. Came in the time when many countries te

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The effect of the probing questions in the collection of literature for students of the Kurdish language department in the College of Education / Ibn Rushd for the Humanities
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    The goal of this research to identify the effect of the probing questions in the collection of material literature with students of the Kurdish language department, to achieve the aim of the research, the researcher has chosen a sample from the students of third stage of the Kurdish language Department, Faculty of Education / Ibn Rushd as a field for the application of experiment.The number of sample  reached (71) students divided into two groups represented two divisions of the experimental groups under study to the style of questions sounding by (35) students, and represented the other division of the control group, which studied in the way normal and by (36) students, as rewarded r

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Effectiveness of the organization and its role in achieving the requirements of Strategic success: A survey study of the opinions of a sample of workers at the Asia Telecom Company in Baghdad
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The research aims present to highlight the importance of creating construction Organizational appropriate to achieve strategic success and reduce many of the negative effects experienced by organizations has been developing his questionnaire especially so was distributed to a sample of workers in the Asia-cellular as sample included (60) responsive 0 and can embody intellectual dilemma following questions (What are the dimensions of the organizational infrastructure, and what are the justifications for carrying out the reform and development cleared the organizational structure to make it more flexible) to contribute to the achievement of the strategic requirements for success of the organization surveyed.
Find recommended a number o

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Intermediate Role Of information Technology In The Relationship To The Entrepreneurial Orientation and Success Factors Of The Project (Analytical exploratory research in Al – Zawraa General Company)
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The purpose of the current research is to identify the reality and applicability of the entrepreneurial approach in its dimensions (creative, proactive, independent, risk tolerant, offensive) and its impact on the success factors of the project (organizational commitment, communication, project team, project monitoring) Access to information, treatment, storage), which is a significant and important link in the success and development of industrial projects with the possibility of studying and analyzing the provision of the appropriate environment for this.

 the research started from a problem expressed by a number of intellectual and practical questions aimed at answering them as well as To answer a

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of Structured Educational Program on Nurses’ Practices Concerning Therapeutic Communication at Cardiac Care Units in Holy Karbala Governorate Hospitals
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Abstract
Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of an educational program on nurses' practices concerning therapeutic communication.
Methodology: A quasi experimental design was carried out at Karbala Center for Cardiac Diseases and Surgery, Imam Hussein Medical City and Al-Handia General Hospital for period 10th June 2017 to the 15th of August 2018.
The program and instruments were constructed and developed by the researcher to measure the purpose of the study. Purposive sample comprised of (57) nurses were divided into two groups, study and control groups. The questionnaire consisted from two parts, first part is related to nurses' demographic characteristics and second part which include practices checkl

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 10 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Impact of Socio-economic Status on Age at Menarche among Secondary School Students at AL-Dora Region in Baghdad Governorate
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Objective: To assess the Impact of Socio-economic status on age at menarche among secondary school students at
AL-Dora city in Baghdad, Iraq.
Methodology: This is a cross sectional study with multi-stage sampling was carried out during the period from the
3
th of December2013 to 12th of March 2014. The Sample comprised of 1760 girls, 1510 girls from urban area and
250 from rural area was included in the study. In first stage, selection of schools was done, and one class was
selected randomly from each level of Education, The data collection through a special questionnaire which Contain
the age of girl by year, class level, birth order, number of household, number of rooms, residency (urban/rural),
education level

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 19 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Effect Wisdom Management in Defferentiation Strategy for Service Operations Exploratory: Search of the Views of A Sample of the Officials in the General Establishment of Civil Aviation
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Today, the success or failure of organizations depends to possess the wisdom of their managers promised that the key to organizational success of the business environment, making the right decisions, and create the ability to work and think towards discrimination of products and services the organization . Seek this research to investigation the relationship between the wisdom management and differentiation strategy for service operations . It was a test of that relationship in light of the results of the analysis of the data collected through the questionnaire distributed on a sample from (98) Director Mangers, head of department and head of division in  the General Establishment of Civil Aviation . The research used descriptive st

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