تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
سبع مسائل في احسن الوسائل للسياسة العراقية
The research current ( features tendency cosmic in contemporary Iraqi configuration) attempt to study the dimensions of the conceptual and philosophical foundations upon which the tendency of cosmic within the period that extended its influence beyond the place where I grew up to be circulated concepts in all parts of the world, it is no doubt that the world is now heading to rapprochement after the tremendous developments in the field of communication technology and reflected heavily on identity concepts, privacy, the concept of nation-states ... etc. to become an individual and a large area of access to other cultures, and all that aroused the interest of contemporary Iraqi artist this interest arising from the desire to keep up with d
... Show MoreThe paper deals with the position of the Contemporary Islamic political thought concerning the Islamic of pluralism in party system and the role of political parties in the future Islamic state . this paper focuses on the vision of Mr. mohammad hussain Fadlulah to these topics and his opinion in the legitimacy of alliancy with secular political parties The paper , also discussed his opinion concerning the adaptation of political relations between the Islamic political parties under the rules and lows of secular political system in order to have broad positively the public good
Acting on the Holy Qur’an by contemplating its meanings, stopping at its commands and prohibitions, and everything in it that guides us to truth and mercy. The Holy Qur’an includes it for various purposes in one verse, and there is no doubt that this is part of the perfection of this great book, and one of the sciences of the fundamentalists is the indication of the context, and it is a great science of high rank, and it is one of the most important things that lead to the correct understanding of the miraculous and decisive book of God Almighty, and one of the best meanings of the Qur’an It was not from the context of the verses, and from here it can be said that the indication of the context is one of the origins of deriving lega
... Show MoreThe moon tree, the lover of the night, cholera, the sea changes its colors are poetic products left by the pioneer of free poetry, as many have called her. She used to write poetry and publish it in magazines and newspapers until she published it with collections that came into existence from an early age. Several factors helped her in that that contributed to the formation of her personality and the maturity of her talent, including factors Family, including environmental, and psychological, until she later became the focus of attention of many, so she became taught in the universities of London, and students stood by her method of writing free poetry, this poetic color that Badr Shaker Al-Sayyab participated in pioneering. Whoever exam
... Show MoreSeveral studies have indicated that more than 600 cities in the world (intermas of rapid growth and development) will generate about 60% of international economic growth between 2010 and 2025 . by 2025 , 66% of the worlds population will live in urban areas the management of cities will face challenges that accompany this increase in the population which requires preparing to face these challenges and problems and the need to provide the aim of the research to know the readiness of Baghdad city to implement the strategies of urban management throught on asmple representing the ( Advisiry group for the comprechnsive development plan for the city of Baghdad 2030 and its supporters ) in the municipality of Baghdad and the number of
... Show MoreIn his novel entitled Victory. Joseph Conrad asserts himself as a writer for man
as a moral agent in this universe. His characters exhibit the possibilities for isolation
and moral deterioration in modern life. The aim of this research is to investigate some
social issues that touch the core of humanity. In this novel, Conrad's perceptive eyes
has noted so many social issues that need to be tackled. Implicitly and explicitly,
Conrad launches so many controversial issues like : communication and
disengagement or skepticism , conflict between heart and mind ,fate, demonic
identification sense of guilt in man, men , women and homosexuality, the clash
between the civilized and the raw ,the disregarded local people and
This research is a modest contribution to Put the finishing touches on therole of managerial leaders represented by static companies belonging to theministry of transport and communication/ [iraq] . the research has adopted thedescriptive. Analytical methodology and field study technique, using thequestionnaire as a tool for data collection [58] forms Nar, been distributed tothe research sample. The sample has been deliberately selected {generalmanager, as assistant general manager and heads of department}. Thequestionnaires and the main hypotheses of represented by the existence ofsignificant correlation and impact between successful managerial leadershipand crisis management using the software {SPSS}, were analyzed. Resultswere identic
... Show MoreMost cities in the world are suffering from the problem of solid waste and the resting adverse impact on the environment and public health, in particular the spread of diseases, insects and rodents, As well as the proliferation of nuisance odors result of provided by the responsible parties, As wall as weak environmental awareness among those who dwell in dealing in environmentally sound disposal of solid waste, this study was bembgesan first intake of solid waste and the kinds of concept and components by land use, As wall as the effects of solid waste on the environment spatial, factors affecting the quality and quantity of solid waste, the second topic was included as a study field presented the historical city of Baghdad
... Show MoreThe wall of Eastern side considers one of the important prominence architect sign of Baghdad city through Abbasid era , it is surrounded by many shops, houses , the work had started in the period of caliph( Al-Mustathher Billah )