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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation of Beta-2 Integrin and Platelets Roles in Sickle Cell Disease Pathogenicity in Basrah Governorate Patients
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Sickle cell disease (SCD) comprises an inherited blood disorder that is life long and affects many people globally. In spite of the development in treatment, SCA is a considerable cause of mortality and morbidity. The present study tries to assess the role of leukocytes represented by β integrin(CD18) and platelets and their productivity in the pathogenicity of disease during  the steady state and crisis in comparison with the healthy as-control group, SCD patients (15) enrolled during crisis and steady state (follow up) showed a significant increase in leukocytes and platelets cells productivity during crisis when compared to the steady state and in the steady state when compared to the healthy control group . In this study, SCD patho

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Scopus (2)
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Publication Date
Thu Feb 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
An Evaluation Study of the Classroom Activities within the Developed English Course (Flying High) for the High School First- Grade Students in View of Creative Thinking Skills
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The study aims to examine the classroom activities of the developed English course (Flying High) for the high school first-grade students, identify creative thinking skills appropriate for this grade, and show the extent the classroom activities involve these skills from the female- teachers ‘point of view. The study adopted the descriptive survey method. The study community consists of all (50) English female-teachers who teach high school first grade in Arar city during the academic year (1440 -1441 A.H, the first semester). The study was applied to all respondents. The researcher used a questionnaire as a study tool. The study revealed that the female-teachers reported their disagreement and refusal of the classroom activities in th

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Electronic government and its effect in reducing Management Corruption: دراسة استطلاعية في دائرة المرور العامة (الإجازات)
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In view of the huge and speedy development of the information and communications technology sectores which cover all the life aspects. The traditional government started to adopt the Electronic Government Concept to deliver the information, services and product marketing to the beneficiaries through the Internet and Computer system. The E-government became inevitable necessity that should be applied in every country wishes to face the Modern technical development.

E-government is not on alternative of the traditional government but a supporter which can increase its efficiency by keeping away from the routine and Beaurucratic complexity, this will save the efforts, increase achievement and reduce costs, in addition to Provide Man

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Employ Frameworks and Modern Standards in Evaluating Internal Control System: Applied Research in the General Company for Vegetable Oil Industry
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In light of today's business world, who faces challenges and intense competition as a result of the rapid evolution of technical and informational, organizations had to respond to variables through the adoption of modern management techniques that reduce the effects of risks and activating the role of the internal control system in order to contribute to the early detection of risks and reduce the negative results expected .The research is to address the problem faced by organizations which still follow the traditional methods in the control activities, and the lack of knowledge of the management and their staff of the importance of the existence of risk management and internal control system takes into account these risks, and the limit

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Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Modrating Role of Dynamic Knowledge capabilies in Addressing Organizational Failures to Achieve Business Competitiveness: Applied Research in Dairy Industries
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Purpose/ to build clear perceptions about the level of the effects of organizational failures on the competitiveness of dairy factories and the role of dynamic knowledge capabilities in minimizing these impacts

Mythology/ Design approach Use deduction approach, the research was conducted in four dairy factories in Baghdad (Abu Ghraib, Agriculture, Halal and Ayon Al-Rafidain). It was applied to a sample of (155) individuals representing a sample of the research community from factory owners, managers, Engineers, technicians and experienced workers in the dairy industry. The questionnaire was used as a main tool for collecting data, information and statistical tools in the extraction, testing and analysis o

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun May 02 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The extent of adopting the dimensions of the Blue Ocean Strategy and its impact in the market share: بحث استطلاعي في شركة الحمراء للتأمين
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With the increase in competition between insurance companies in addition to the increasing numbers in the number of insurance companies, whose number decreased to (32) private companies until the end of the year (2020). The blue ocean at the level and its effects on increasing the market share. Therefore, the two researchers tested the hypothesis and the research concluded that there is a relationship A .Also the researcher put some recommendations the most prominent is that the invention is considered one of the successful strategies an d the company has to encourage the employees according to inventive thoughts

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2006
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
اثر المعرفة المسبقة بالأهداف السلوكية في تحصيل طالبات قسم القران الكريم والتربية الإسلامية في مادة احكام التلاوة
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مشكلة البحث

إن طرائق تدريس المواد الشرعية ما تزال تُدّرس بطرائق لا تتناسب مع ما توصل إليه البحث العلمي في الميدان التربوي في الوقت الحاضر ، وهذا مما سبب في وجود أزمة فكرية وعلمية في الأقسام التي تدرس المناهج الدينية .

على الرغم من الأهمية الكبيرة لمادة التلاوة ، إلا أن هناك مشكلة كثيرا ما يعاني منها مدرسو هذه المادة، وهي انصراف الطلبة عن حفظ النصوص القرآن

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Marketing commission and its role in enhancing the competitive advantage of insurance companies : Applied research on a sample of Iraqi insurance companies
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Abstract:

                 The research aims to improve the insurance service through the marketing commission as a tool that enables the insurance companies to achieve a competitive advantage. The researcher, by observing the challenges faced by insurance companies, insurance agents and brokers, raised the main question of the research: Is there an effect of the marketing commission on the competitive advantage of insurance companies? The data was obtained through the financial statements and annual reports of the research sample companies (the National General Insurance Company, the Iraqi General Insurance Company, Al-Hamra Private

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of nanocapsules and extract of Metarhizium anisopliae in inhibiting acetylcholine esterase enzyme in Musca domestica larvae.
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M. domestica is the most important insect that transmit pathogens for diseases in the world. The use of nanotechnology is eco-friendly method in control pests. The study aims to investigate the feasibility of bio-manufacturing nanocapsules of fungal secondary metabolites in order to improve the efficiency of metabolite and assess their inhibitory effect on the acetylcholine esterase enzyme in housefly larvae. An equal mixture of organic solvents, ethyl acetate and dichloromethane, was used to extract the metabolic products of the fungus M. anisopliae, (PEG4000) and chitosan was used in the preparation of nanocapsules. The results of the DLS granular size assay showed that the size of the extract particles and the size of the chitosan and

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Scopus (3)
Crossref (1)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
شعر الاحتضار حتّى نھایة العصر العباسي الأول ( ٣٣٤ ھ) دراسة في شعر اللحظات الأخیرة في حیاة الشعراء
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Dying poetry ,last felt the man to say apriorior improvisation during entry in to the
context of the death while going through it, or distracted by the death , before the soul went
out the duration of a brief may not exceed the minutes , with out pious or pen or vain , may
have been exercised in his daily life, compelled or for the benefit.
The discussion dealt with the meaning of dying, then presented its article with three
topics;
First; What was said in accepting the death.
Second; what was said in the reguest fo death.
Third; what was said to ignore the death.
This lesson as well as poetry style andcream and the imeanings and ideas and nages and
rhetorical rhythm. To achieve this, adopted solid sources a

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