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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
اثر أنموذج برونر في تنمية التفكير الناقد لدى طلبة المرحلة الثانية كلية التربية الأساسية في مادة الأدب
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التعريف بالبحث

اهمية البحث والحاجة اليه :.

           اللغة وظيفة اساسية الا وهي التواصل ولقد زدادت الحاجة في هذا العصر الى تعلم اللغات والاحاطة بها اكثر من اي وقت مضى يوصفها الاساس الذي يعتمد عليه في تعلم المواد الاخرى .

         فاللغة اداة التفكير ونشر الثقافة في بلدان كثيرة مثل بلاد الاندلس التي اشرقت منها الحضارة في ا

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 15 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
The controversy of aesthetic interpretation between the sculptures and their titles Contemporary Iraqi Sculpture "Experiments in Contemporary Iraqi Sculpture Exhibition as a Model"
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The research tagged with the controversy of aesthetic interpretation between the sculptures and their titles in contemporary Iraqi sculpture, “Exhibition of Experiments in Contemporary Iraqi Sculpture as a Model”, and it is one of the new research that contributes to strengthening the critical path in the Iraqi fine movement, as the first chapter dealt with the research problem stemming from the question: What is the impact of the aesthetic hermeneutic controversy between the title and the title in contemporary Iraqi sculpture?, and do the titles of the sculptural works help to understand or enhance their contents?, The research objective included: To identify the controversy of the aesthetic interpretation of sculptures and their ti

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Assessment of Nurses knowledge toward prevention of Complications related Valvular Replacement Surgery at Surgical Department in AL-Nasiriyah Heart Center
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Objectives: The study aims to assess  the nurses knowledge toward prevention of complications related to valvular  replacement surgery and to find out the relationship between nurses knowledge and their demographic and occupational characteristic's Which as (Age, gender, level of education ,years of experience in Surgical Department , and training sessions)

 

Methodology: A descriptive design  (a cross-sectional study ) was carried out from December 2017 to May 2018 in order to assess nurses' knowledge of preventing complications Valvular Replacement Surgery at Surgical Department in  Nasiriyah Heart Center on a purposive (non-probability) sample

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The causal relationship between leadership integrity and organizational conflict: An applied research in the State Real Estate Department in the province of Najaf
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This research aims to know the impact of leadership integrity as explanatory variable including its dimensions (courage, asceticism, justice, rationality, and humanity) on organizational conflict as responding variable. This research depended on the descriptive- constructive approach through the responses of a sample of (79) employees from (Real Estate Office of The State) in Al-Najaf province. The analyzing of the study done by using (Smart PLS) program to calculate (R2, t, p). Many results concluded and one of them, there is significant impact correlation of the leadership integrity on organizational conflict. There are many suggestions have been reached depending on the results reached and one of them is the necessity of de

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of organizational culture in the quality of banking service financial perspective Applied research in a sample of Iraqi private banks
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The banking sector is a cornerstone of the national economy because of its large role of economic development of a country, which requires the advancement of this vital sector and interest in all the accompanying changes to him in order to survive and grow and continue Accordingly dealt Find reversal (organizational culture, on the quality of banking service ) sought search to achieve a number of cognitive and practical goals by selecting (10), especially among the working banks in Iraq Iraqi banks and the period is the surveyed period (2005-2014) embodied the research problem in the dialectical relationship between the (organizational culture) and its impacts on banking service quality.

Through a set of

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of wages and benefits systems on the performance of employees A field study in the General Company for Food Industries in the city of Baghdad
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The research aims to find out the impact of wages and benefits systems on the performance of employees, which included the research community on a sample of employees in the company, and the sample consisted of (50) employees and an employee, A questionnaire composed as prepared (23) paragraph, use the promised statistically methods in data collected by the questionnaire analysis. The research reached a number of results, the most prominent of which were: There is a correlation between wage systems, benefits and performance of employees, and the presence of the impact of the systems of wages and benefits to the performance of employees. The research was presented a set of recommendations including: increasing the effectiveness of

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of artificial intelligence in achieving Customer satisfaction and its reflection on cost accounting: An applied research in the Iraqi electronic industries company
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Based economic units to technology to add innovations that lead to contribute to customer satisfaction, under intense competition and rapid development in customer taste, the economic units tend to apply the concepts that contribute to customer satisfaction led by the introduction of artificial intelligence techniques. In the production prominent role in the contributing and responding to the rapid changes in customer tastes, and consequent impact this in achieving customer satisfaction. Search gained importance of relying on artificial intelligence techniques to achieve customer satisfaction through speed of response to changes in the tastes of customers and thus be able to increase its market share، and sales growth، and to achieve a

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
مجلة دراسات محاسبية ومالية
دور الذكاء الصناعي في تحقيق رضا الزبون وانعكاسه على محاسبة التكاليف بحث تطبيقي في شركة الصناعات الالكترونية
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دور الذكاء الصناعي في تحقيق رضا الزبون وانعكاسه على محاسبة التكاليف بحث تطبيقي في شركة الصناعات الالكترونية

Publication Date
Tue Feb 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Social Safety Nets and its role in the protection of widows (Problems and advancement options) A field study in the Social Welfare Department for Women
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Current search problem manifested and widows who community harsh to bear hardships and pains، The goals of continuing the sustainability of life and take responsibility, and especially in light of the difficult circumstances in which Iraq is going through, and the displacement of murder and terrorism, which generated huge numbers of widows and orphans Because of the loss of a breadwinner and which became women and children are the most harm to the victim and as a result of wars and armed tendencies So this research is an important and vital topic opens our horizons important for overlapping roles of women widows and their impact on the achievement and status of Iraqi women and that as long as aptly characterized and their ability to end

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Acute Flaccid Paralysis Surveillance System's Structure at Al-Russafa Health Directorate in Baghdad City
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Objective: evaluation of Acute Flaccid Paralysis Surveillance (AFP) System's Structure at Al-Russafa Health directorate in Baghdad City. Methodology: descriptive study using evaluation approach conducted to measure the efficiency of AFP Surveillance System structure for period from November 27th 2014 to June 30th 2015. The study adopted the non-probability multi-stage sampling approach. As nineteen health facilities under surveillance are chosen and interview is conducted with a total of 50 health worker how are involved in the AFP Surveillance System. The data are gathered from sample by using question

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