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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
شعر الاحتضار حتّى نھایة العصر العباسي الأول ( ٣٣٤ ھ) دراسة في شعر اللحظات الأخیرة في حیاة الشعراء
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Dying poetry ,last felt the man to say apriorior improvisation during entry in to the
context of the death while going through it, or distracted by the death , before the soul went
out the duration of a brief may not exceed the minutes , with out pious or pen or vain , may
have been exercised in his daily life, compelled or for the benefit.
The discussion dealt with the meaning of dying, then presented its article with three
topics;
First; What was said in accepting the death.
Second; what was said in the reguest fo death.
Third; what was said to ignore the death.
This lesson as well as poetry style andcream and the imeanings and ideas and nages and
rhetorical rhythm. To achieve this, adopted solid sources a

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 08 2021
Journal Name
مجلة العلوم و التكنولوجية للنشاطات البدنية و الرياضية
The effectiveness of using (7E’s) learning cycle in learning a movement chain on the uneven bars in the artistic gymnastics for women
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Abstract The Object of the study aims to identify the effectiveness of using the 7E’s learning cycle to learn movement chains on uneven bars, for this purpose, we used the method SPSS. On a sample composed (20) students on collage of physical education at the university of Baghdad Chosen as two groups experimental and control group (10) student for each group, and for data collection, we used SPSS After collecting the results and having treated them statistically, we conclude the use 7E’s learning cycle has achieved remarkable positive progress, but it has diverged between to methods, On this basis, the study recommended the necessity of applying 7E’s learning cycle strategy in learning the movement chain on uneven bar

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 23 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
استخدام بطاقة الأداء المتوازن في تقويم الأداء: دراسة محاسبية في شركة بغداد للمشروبات الغازية من المنشآت الصناعية
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The performance evaluation had Focused for many years ago on The financial factors which are Not enough for the contemporary business organizations. So in order to get useful information it con used The balanced score card which can used to offer information about some measurement on which the level of the act actual performance is determined.

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
اثر أنموذج برونر في تنمية التفكير الناقد لدى طلبة المرحلة الثانية كلية التربية الأساسية في مادة الأدب
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التعريف بالبحث

اهمية البحث والحاجة اليه :.

           اللغة وظيفة اساسية الا وهي التواصل ولقد زدادت الحاجة في هذا العصر الى تعلم اللغات والاحاطة بها اكثر من اي وقت مضى يوصفها الاساس الذي يعتمد عليه في تعلم المواد الاخرى .

         فاللغة اداة التفكير ونشر الثقافة في بلدان كثيرة مثل بلاد الاندلس التي اشرقت منها الحضارة في ا

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of wages and benefits systems on the performance of employees A field study in the General Company for Food Industries in the city of Baghdad
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The research aims to find out the impact of wages and benefits systems on the performance of employees, which included the research community on a sample of employees in the company, and the sample consisted of (50) employees and an employee, A questionnaire composed as prepared (23) paragraph, use the promised statistically methods in data collected by the questionnaire analysis. The research reached a number of results, the most prominent of which were: There is a correlation between wage systems, benefits and performance of employees, and the presence of the impact of the systems of wages and benefits to the performance of employees. The research was presented a set of recommendations including: increasing the effectiveness of

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Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of practices by the Managing of human resources on effectiveness of organizational crisis Management Described and analysis research for ministry of Iraqi interior
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The practice by the  administration of human resources  on effectiveness of organization  crisis as two knowledge fields , it were be until now as center for many studies, but the collect it, study of relation between them ,and The role of practices  by the  administration of human resources  on effectiveness of organization  crisis administration  were considered a new study and first according to the available and showing  studies at this field .

The problem of this research was specified by answer for the question that deal for size of consciousness at the ministry of interior for import of&nbs

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Feb 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Diagnosing the information technology (IT) capabilities and It’s Effect to Achieving A competitive Superiority Analytical Research in Baghdad soft drinks Company/Al- Zafaraniya
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Purpose: The current research attempts to diagnosis the reflection level of Information Technology (IT) Capabilities (Architectural, infrastructure, human resources, relationships resources, and dynamic capabilities) at Baghdad soft drinks Company/Al- Zafaraniya to achieving the competitive superiority represented by indicators (Cost, quality, flexibility, delivery and innovation). Recognizing the importance of the subjects studied, and because of the importance of the expected results of the field under consideration.

Design/Methodology/Approach: The experimental method has been used, the questionnaire used to collect th

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 22 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The impact of international Accounting Standard No (21) in reducing tax obstacles : applied research in the General Authority for Taxes .
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               The research aimed to shed light on the impact of international Accounting Standard No (21) on tax obstacles represented by (tax evasion, double taxation) The financial statements of a group of banks operating in the private sector were relied upon to know the impact of the standard on tax obstacles, as well as knowing the amount of amounts, The researcher relied on the method of financial analysis of that data, which was obtained from the website of the Securities Commission, and conducted personal interviews with a number of university professors, chartered accountants, financial experts, banks, and the General Authority for Taxes to benefit from their

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of social audit in social performance an applied study of the views of a sample of managers and staff of Algerian business organizations
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            This research aims at clarifying the concept of social auditing, which is one of the most important reasons for its emergence is social responsibility accounting and its role in measuring the social performance of enterprises. The study also aimed to know how social auditing has an impact and its role in improving the social performance of business organizations, and the research refers to testing the hypotheses of an impact of social auditing on social performance through a commitment to social responsibility. The research sample consisted of 200 individuals from 20 Algerian business organizations and represented individuals who were researched in managers and em

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of academic leadership practices in activating the human capital / A field research of a Iraqi universities sample / Baghdad
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The aims of this study to diagnose the role of the (relationship and impact) Academic driving practices dimensions (model the way, inspire a shared vision, challenge the process, enable others to act, encourage the heart ) in the activation of human capital (investment and development) for (knowledge, skills, expertise, creative and training capabilities) in a sample of university professors in Baghdad city(Baghdad University, Al Mustansiriya University, University of Technology). (367 )samples were distributed to (232 at the University of Baghdad, 97 at Al-Mustansiriya University and 38 at the University of Technology). The goals of descriptive analytical method research have been used, questionnaire has been a main tool for dat

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