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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A reflection of organizational citizenship behaviors in the performance of employees A prospective study of a sample of the teaching staff working in the Degla University College
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Abstract
        This research aims to identify the relationship and the impact of the behavior of organizational citizenship in the performance of employees, as practiced behaviors organizational citizenship substantial role in achieving the objectives of both the organization and its staff at the same time, so it affects a large extent on the characteristics and performance of individuals employees and thus influence the success of the organization as a whole, problem of the research has indicated that there is a clear failure in the study of the impact of the behavior of organizational citizenship in the performance of employees, was chosen

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 16 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Complementary Relationship between Target Costing and Value Chain In The Public Corporations Of The Jordanian Industrial Sector: An Empirical Study
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This research aims to study the target costing and value chain with their complimentary relationship in reducing product costs, meeting the needs of customer, and achieving strategic competitive advantage for manufacturing corporations in response to face international competition, technological development and continuous changing expectations of customers.    No doubt, the target costing and value chain both currently occupy a great deal of the attention of managers and accountants at the manufacturing corporations due to the significance to insure their continuity, growth and development. This significance has been the main motive to examine the role of target costing and value chain in a sample of public corporations of the

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 08 2021
Journal Name
مجلة العلوم و التكنولوجية للنشاطات البدنية و الرياضية
The effectiveness of using (7E’s) learning cycle in learning a movement chain on the uneven bars in the artistic gymnastics for women
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Abstract The Object of the study aims to identify the effectiveness of using the 7E’s learning cycle to learn movement chains on uneven bars, for this purpose, we used the method SPSS. On a sample composed (20) students on collage of physical education at the university of Baghdad Chosen as two groups experimental and control group (10) student for each group, and for data collection, we used SPSS After collecting the results and having treated them statistically, we conclude the use 7E’s learning cycle has achieved remarkable positive progress, but it has diverged between to methods, On this basis, the study recommended the necessity of applying 7E’s learning cycle strategy in learning the movement chain on uneven bar

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 25 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
اثر استخدام طريقة الاكتشاف في تحصيل تلميذات الصف السادس الابتدائي وتنمية المهارات الاجتماعية لديهن في مادة التاريخ
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اجري هذا البحث للتعرف على "اثر استخدام طريقة الاكتشاف في تحصيل تلميذات الصف السادس الابتدائي وتنمية المهارات الاجتماعية لديهن في مادة التاريخ" ،واقتصرت عينة البحث الحالي على تلميذات الصف السادس الابتدائي في مدرسة زيد بن ثابت  للبنات في مدينة الموصل حيث تكونت عينة البحث من (60)تلميذة  تم توزيعهم بشكل متساو الى مجموعتين احداهما تجريبية تدرس باستخدام طريقة الاكتشاف وعددها (30) تلميذة  في حين درست المجموع

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Screening Program for Urinary Tract Infection of Prepubertal Children at Al Nasiriya City Primary Schools
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Objective(s): The study aims Finding relationship between UTI and demographic variable include: child's age, child's gender, if males are circumcised or not, child's order in his family, father's level of education, mother's level of education, place of residence and family socioeconomic status. Methodology: A descriptive study was conducted on students of primary schools for both sexes, for the period from 19th. February 2014 through to 4th March 2014. A selected sample from two steps the first stage is to choose a school by a stratified- cluster sample, getting schools that have been selected (12) sch

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
مجلة العلوم و التكنولوجية للنشاطات البدنية و الرياضية/ الجزائر
The effect of using the five-finger strategy on learning movement chain on a balance beam in the artistic gymnastics of women
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Abstract: The aim of the research identify the effect of using the five-finger strategy in learning a movement chain on the balance beam apparatus for students in the third stage in the College of Physical Education and Sports Science, as well as to identify which groups (experimental and controlling) are better in learning the kinematic chain on the balance beam device, has been used The experimental approach is to design the experimental and control groups with pre-and post-test. The research sample was represented by third-graders, as the third division (j) was chosen by lot to represent the experimental group, and a division Third (i) to represent the control group, after which (10) students from each division were tested by lot to repr

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 13 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Patterns of Feedback Used in the E-Learning System from the Teachers of the First Cycle in the Governorate of Muscat at the Sultanate of Oman
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Abstract

This study aims to identify the degree to which the first cycle teachers use different feedback patterns in the e-learning system in addition to the differences in the degree of use according to specialization, teaching experience, and in-service training in the field of classroom assessment, as well as the interaction between them. The study sample consisted of (350) female teachers of the first cycle in government schools in Muscat Governorate for the academic year 2020/2021. The study used a questionnaire that contained four different patterns of feedback, which are reinforcement, informative, corrective, and interpretive feedback. The psychometric properties of the que

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
مجلة الحقوق
اثر تنفيذ الالتزام العقدي على حساب المدين في سلطة المحكمة ـ دراسة في القوانين المدنية والقانون الانكليزي
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يتناول البحث دراسة مقارنة بين القوانين المدنية والقانون الانكليزي لسلطة المحكمة في تنفيذ الالتزام العقدي على حساب المدين

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The impact of cognitive incompatibility schemes on the development of creative thinking skills in history subjects among first grade students
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The aim of this research is to find out the impact of cognitive incompatibility schemes on the development of creative thinking skills among first grade students.
To prove the objective of the research, the researcher put the following hypothesis:
There is no statistically significant difference at the level of (0.05) between the average score of the experimental group who study the history of ancient civilizations according to the patterns of cognitive conflict and the average grades of the control group students who study the same subject in the usual way in the test of post-creative thinking skill

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 04 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Baska Style in Achievement and Creative Thinking among Students in the Fifth Grade Literary Material and Application Rhetoric
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The current research aims to identify the effect of Baska style on students’ achievement and the creative thinking in material rhetoric and the application of students for fifth grade literary. To achieve the study objectives, the researcher has designed an achievement test to measure group of students in the fifth grade literary in material application. The researcher chose a sample of 40 female students from Khansa School for Girls in Baghdad for the academic year (2014 - 2015), he applied the test on an exploratory sample consisted of 30 female students from the research community. The study resulted in being no statistically significant difference at the level of significance (0.05) between the mean scores of the experimental group

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