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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 03 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
nternational will in the Security Council Towards the Syrian crisis
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Nations witnessed since its existence a state of wills conflict as a result of the intersection and intertwining of interests, through which it sought to achieve its goals and objectives, and this has often led to direct military conflicts and countless wars, and witnessed the entry into global wars in which humanity lost millions of lives and losses .Despite the great changes in the international arena, especially in recent decades, the conflict of wills has not ceased, although some of its features and forms have changed, and it has become more complicated after the withdrawal of this conflict to international organizations and bodies, including the Security Council. It is mandated under the Charter of the United Nations to wor

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
International and domestic political conflicts in south Yemen1869-1918
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In the South of yement, when the accupation of Aden in 1839 by the British, British politics has proceeded in accordance with interests in promoting the existence and exploitation of this important site to implement their interests. Historians believe that Britain played a major role in the conflicts that have taken place on the land of Yemen, through a series of military and political dealings between them and the Ottoman Empire prior to withdrawal of Yemen and between local authorities and power to Yemen, such interactions have led to very serious consequences for the future of Yemen and Yemen was often divided into three parts, the northern areas under the authority of Imam Yahya, and the South, under the control of Britain, Asir and

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2005
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
واقع ومستقبل الصراعات الدولية والاقليمية في البحر الاحمر
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واقع ومستقبل الصراعات الدولية والاقليمية في البحر الاحمر

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 28 2022
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Recruitment of Children in African Armed Conflicts and its International Dimensions
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       African countries are among the countries in the world that suffer from the phenomenon of child recruitment in wars and conflicts. There are many reasons behind it, including the nature of the human formation of children, the societal violence to which they are exposed, lack of access to education, economic hardships, as well as the role of African wars and conflicts and other reasons that compelled children to join armed groups and participate in military operations. The recruitment of children is divided into two types, compulsory and voluntary, and this leads to many humanitarian and security repercussions that are not limited to a specific period of time but extend to subsequent generations, and due to its seriousness, t

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of strategic foresight on strategic decision-making- Analytical study at the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research
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The current study aims at the extent of determining the interest of the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research and its various departments in the process of strategic foresight, and whether this interest is reflected in its strategic decisions if the study relies on an exploratory and analytical approach and has targeted managers in the higher management within this ministry, and the questionnaire has also been used as a basic tool for collecting For data, the study population was (94), (89) questionnaires were distributed, (86) questionnaires were retrieved, and usable questionnaires amounted to (83). The sub-variable had the highest impact on strategic decision-making (intuition), as this research demonstrated the

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Impact of Entrepreneur Decision Making on Ambidexterity Performance: An Applied Research in the Oil Products Distribution Company/ aldawra
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The research aims to determine the role of Entrepreneur decision-making in its dimensions in improving the activities of Ambidexterity performance in its dimensions in the researched company. The importance of the research is also evidenced by assisting the oil products distribution company/session in directing the interest of the researched company because it has a prominent role in the Iraqi industrial community for the Entrepreneur decision-making variable that Contributes to building sustainable competitive advantage. This will happen when the company has an Entrepreneur orientation and a good strategic plan is built by the smart leaders in the researched company The researcher adopted the method of the analyti

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the effects of foreign direct investment in financial account of the balance of payments iraqi for 2003-2015
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The study aims to make an in-depth  analysis and the financial account components in the Iraqi balance of payments because it reflects the economic center of the country towards outside world, it also helps in making decision about monetary and financial policies, finance and foreign Trade the importance of FDI for Iraq lies as an important sources as wells provides advanced technology  and job chances, It also avoids the country negative effects of borrowing processes from abroad . for analyzing direct and indirect foreign investment on the balance of payments and financial account in a period between (2003 to 2015), a community and research sample have been selected, presented in CBI/ Balance of payments. Department,

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 15 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Impact of Anticyclones Merge on the Temperature in the stations of Mosul, Baghdad and Basra for the Period (2005-2015)
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           The Anticyclone Merge affects Iraq’s climate clearly through its impact on the different climatic elements. where it appears while they pass through special and distinctive weather . and most of this affection appears in temperatures, Therefore, this research study the relationship between the repetition and the survival period of the Anticyclone Merge and temperature average by using coefficient correlation (Pearson) that shows there’s strong inverse relationship between the integration of Anticyclones and temperatures average.                        &nbs

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 26 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Role of Big Data applications in forecasting corporate bankruptcy: Field analysis in the Saudi Business Environment
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This study aimed to investigate the role of Big Data in forecasting corporate bankruptcy and that is through a field analysis in the Saudi business environment, to test that relationship. The study found: that Big Data is a recently used variable in the business context and has multiple accounting effects and benefits. Among the benefits is forecasting and disclosing corporate financial failures and bankruptcies, which is based on three main elements for reporting and disclosing that, these elements are the firms’ internal control system, the external auditing, and financial analysts' forecasts. The study recommends: Since the greatest risk of Big Data is the slow adaptation of accountants and auditors to these technologies, wh

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research obj

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