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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 03 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
nternational will in the Security Council Towards the Syrian crisis
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Nations witnessed since its existence a state of wills conflict as a result of the intersection and intertwining of interests, through which it sought to achieve its goals and objectives, and this has often led to direct military conflicts and countless wars, and witnessed the entry into global wars in which humanity lost millions of lives and losses .Despite the great changes in the international arena, especially in recent decades, the conflict of wills has not ceased, although some of its features and forms have changed, and it has become more complicated after the withdrawal of this conflict to international organizations and bodies, including the Security Council. It is mandated under the Charter of the United Nations to wor

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 28 2022
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Recruitment of Children in African Armed Conflicts and its International Dimensions
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       African countries are among the countries in the world that suffer from the phenomenon of child recruitment in wars and conflicts. There are many reasons behind it, including the nature of the human formation of children, the societal violence to which they are exposed, lack of access to education, economic hardships, as well as the role of African wars and conflicts and other reasons that compelled children to join armed groups and participate in military operations. The recruitment of children is divided into two types, compulsory and voluntary, and this leads to many humanitarian and security repercussions that are not limited to a specific period of time but extend to subsequent generations, and due to its seriousness, t

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
International and domestic political conflicts in south Yemen1869-1918
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In the South of yement, when the accupation of Aden in 1839 by the British, British politics has proceeded in accordance with interests in promoting the existence and exploitation of this important site to implement their interests. Historians believe that Britain played a major role in the conflicts that have taken place on the land of Yemen, through a series of military and political dealings between them and the Ottoman Empire prior to withdrawal of Yemen and between local authorities and power to Yemen, such interactions have led to very serious consequences for the future of Yemen and Yemen was often divided into three parts, the northern areas under the authority of Imam Yahya, and the South, under the control of Britain, Asir and

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2005
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
واقع ومستقبل الصراعات الدولية والاقليمية في البحر الاحمر
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واقع ومستقبل الصراعات الدولية والاقليمية في البحر الاحمر

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2016
Journal Name
مجلة كلية الحقوق جامعة النهرين
دور المبادئ العامة للقانون في إطار التجارة الدولية
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المبادئ العامة للقانون ودرها في اطار التجارة الدولية

Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The status of the state and its relationship to the concept of force in international relations
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The concept of power despite its implications unclear and unknown was one of the most standards in international relations ambiguity and lack of clarity, however was more standards important and influential in the conduct of international relations, and since that time until today since that ambiguity in the meaning of power and use it as a factor of international relations factors and drive the engines were very different and irony from case to case and from researcher to another, but it may be classified force as the international status enjoyed by the state in the international ocean and here is a structure formed of forces posed by the state, such as economic and political nature of the political system and military power and concept

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Level of Inclusion of Citizenship Values in English Language Textbooks “We Can Series” for the Elementary Education in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
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Abstract

The study aims to reveal the level of inclusion of citizenship values in the English language textbooks (We Can) series for elementary education in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To achieve this objective, the "content analysis" methodology was used. A content analysis card was designed to include (6) main areas of citizenship values, it consisted of (28) sub-indicators of citizenship values that were supposed to be included in the English language textbook series (We Can) for elementary education. The study sample consisted of all the English language textbooks (We Can) series for elementary education, which consisted of (6) textbooks, two for each class. The results of the study indicated that there is a

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Importance of Liquidity and Profitability in Enhancing the Banking Value in Private Banks for the Period 2016 - 2019
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The article aims to study the liquidity that is required to be provided optimally and the profitability that is required to be achieved by the bank, and the impact of both of them on the value of the bank, and their effect of both liquidity and profitability on the value of the bank. Hence, the research problem emerged, which indicates the extent of the effect of liquidity and profitability on the value of the bank. The importance of the research stems from the main role that commercial banks play in the economy of a country. This requires the need to identify liquidity in a broad way and its most important components, and how to

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Impact of Entrepreneur Decision Making on Ambidexterity Performance: An Applied Research in the Oil Products Distribution Company/ aldawra
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The research aims to determine the role of Entrepreneur decision-making in its dimensions in improving the activities of Ambidexterity performance in its dimensions in the researched company. The importance of the research is also evidenced by assisting the oil products distribution company/session in directing the interest of the researched company because it has a prominent role in the Iraqi industrial community for the Entrepreneur decision-making variable that Contributes to building sustainable competitive advantage. This will happen when the company has an Entrepreneur orientation and a good strategic plan is built by the smart leaders in the researched company The researcher adopted the method of the analyti

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of strategic foresight on strategic decision-making- Analytical study at the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research
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The current study aims at the extent of determining the interest of the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research and its various departments in the process of strategic foresight, and whether this interest is reflected in its strategic decisions if the study relies on an exploratory and analytical approach and has targeted managers in the higher management within this ministry, and the questionnaire has also been used as a basic tool for collecting For data, the study population was (94), (89) questionnaires were distributed, (86) questionnaires were retrieved, and usable questionnaires amounted to (83). The sub-variable had the highest impact on strategic decision-making (intuition), as this research demonstrated the

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