Preferred Language
Articles
/
Pxc4s40BVTCNdQwCChkw
نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
...Show More Authors

تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2010
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Prediction of Equilibrium Mixing Index and Optimum Mixing Time for Three solid materials in Fluidized Column
...Show More Authors

     Equilibrium and rate of mixing of free flowing solid materials are found using gas fluidized bed. The solid materials were sand (size 0.7 mm), sugar (size0.7 mm) and 15% cast iron used as a tracer. The fluidizing gas was air with velocity ranged from 0.45-0.65 m/s while the mixing time was up to 10 minutes. The mixing index for each experiment was calculated by averaging the results of 10 samples taken from different radial and axial positions in fluidized QVF column 150 mm ID and 900 mm height.

     The experimental results were used in solving a mathematical model of mixing rate and mixing index at an equilibrium proposed by Rose. The results show that mixing index increases with inc

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Dec 18 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
...Show More Authors

The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (1)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2006
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
العلاقات السياسية الدولية واستراتيجية ادارة الازمات
...Show More Authors

العلاقات السياسية الدولية واستراتيجية ادارة الازمات

View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of political thinking on the decision maker in analyzing the strategic environment of the state (applied study in the Iraqi Ministry of Finance)
...Show More Authors

The Political Thinking Regarded as an important element for the formulation of the stat, weather in its formation, the structure of it s entity, its political system and it s governmental instruments .The political thinking can not act without determined strategy, So they intend to work hard to formulate a railed strategy that make them able to determine its  directions to general issues.

   The Study aimed to solve the problem through the following question:

1- What are the levels of Political Thinking and Strategic Analysis in the financial ministry?

2- What are the relation ship between the dimensions of Political  T

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Financing and its impact on municipal performance in the municipalities of Missan governorate for the period (2011-2018)
...Show More Authors

The research aims to show the role or extent of the impact of financing in its various forms on the municipal performance before and after the financial deficit through relying on the analytical research methodology of the research community represented by the Directorate General of Municipalities and the Directorate of Maysan municipalities as a sample of research (13) municipal institutions for a period of (8) years, Considering the completion of the final accounts of these years, which provides the necessary data for the study, in addition to the variation in the quality and amounts of grants allocated to municipal institutions during these years, which gives a clearer and more comprehensive picture of the reality of allocatio

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2015
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Wavelength Division Multiplexing Passive Optical Network modeling Using Optical System Simulator
...Show More Authors

Abstract

Due to the continuing demand for larger bandwidth, the optical transport becoming general in the access network. Using optical fiber technologies, the communications infrastructure becomes powerful, providing very high speeds to transfer a high capacity of data. Existing telecommunications infrastructures is currently widely used Passive Optical Network that apply Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) and is awaited to play an important role in the future Internet supporting a large diversity of services and next generation networks. This paper presents a design of WDM-PON network, the simulation and analysis of transmission parameters in the Optisystem 7.0 environment for bidirectional traffic. The sim

... Show More
View Publication
Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2010
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Modeling and Simulation of Sensorless Speed Control of a Buck Converter Controlled Dc Motor
...Show More Authors

This paper investigate a sensorless speed control of a separately excited dc motor fed from a buck type dc-dc converter. The control system is designed in digital technique by using a two dimension look-up table. The performance of the drive system was evaluated by digital simulation using Simulink toolbox of Matlab.

View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
" الصعوبات التي تواجه طلبة الدراسات العليا في أعداد البحوث
...Show More Authors

تتزايد الصعوبات التي يعاني منها الطالب بشكل خاص والتدريسي بشكل عام في المرحلة الراهنة وذلك لنقص المصادر والكوادر العلمية الرصينة التي كانت تفخر بها جامعات العراق ولا سيما جامعة بغداد اذ أن الجامعات هي اعلى قيمة في السلم التعليمي وتعد بيئة نقية أوجدها المجتمع للتربية من خلال المناهج الدراسية التي تؤدي بشكل سليم وان الجامعة بوصفها سياقاً اجتماعياً لها أهمية في التشجيع على الإبداع وتعد جيلاً من الشباب للعمل

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Fri Oct 11 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Principles Adopted by Abu Ubaida in his book (metaphor of the Koran)
...Show More Authors

Praise be to God, prayer and peace be upon the Messenger of Allah and after:

   The science of interpretation is related to the book of God Almighty; it is considered one of the most honorable sciences. It started with a long time ago. In the early days of Islam, the area of ​​the Islamic state expanded. The people entered the religion of Allah in groups. In the language, and people do not know more than the meanings of the Koran was the need to write in this scie234nce is strong, and perhaps the first of the thousand in the (meanings of the Koran) Abu Ubaida in his book (metaphor of the Koran), Abu Ubaida was affected by his specialization in Arabic science, Prominent on his book.

The second section wa

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Новые направления и течения начала Серебряного века The Silver Age and the New Trends That appeared at the Twentieth Century.
...Show More Authors

    Годы, принадлежащие концу XIX – началу XX столетия, вошли в русскую литературу под красивым названием Серебряный век. В это время в стране появился целый ряд выдающихся поэтов, имена которых навсегда останутся в русской и мировой литературе. Это Ахматова, Гумилев, Блок, Маяковский и многие другие. Все эти люди творили в нелегкое для России время. Началом Серебряного века условно считают 189

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF