تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Twenty five samples out of sixty wound swabs taken from burn patients were identified as P. aeruginosabacteria by conventional methods. Antibiotics susceptibility tests were performed against thirteen antibiotics. P. aeruginosa samples were treated with 0.5 mg/ml of Safranin O solution then irradiated with 532nm Q-switched Nd:YAG laser at four energy densities (0.324, 0.704, 1.380, and 1.831 J/cm2) for different times of 5, 8 and 11 minutes with 5Hz repetition rate. The viability, susceptibility to antibiotic and production of pyocyanin were determined before and after irradiation. The results showed that the number of CFU/ml of P. aeruginosa decreased with increasing the dose of irradiation. Complete killing of cells was observed at 1.8
... Show MoreThe Anticyclone Merge affects Iraq’s climate clearly through its impact on the different climatic elements. where it appears while they pass through special and distinctive weather . and most of this affection appears in temperatures, Therefore, this research study the relationship between the repetition and the survival period of the Anticyclone Merge and temperature average by using coefficient correlation (Pearson) that shows there’s strong inverse relationship between the integration of Anticyclones and temperatures average. &nbs
... Show MoreThe study aims to make an in-depth analysis and the financial account components in the Iraqi balance of payments because it reflects the economic center of the country towards outside world, it also helps in making decision about monetary and financial policies, finance and foreign Trade the importance of FDI for Iraq lies as an important sources as wells provides advanced technology and job chances, It also avoids the country negative effects of borrowing processes from abroad . for analyzing direct and indirect foreign investment on the balance of payments and financial account in a period between (2003 to 2015), a community and research sample have been selected, presented in CBI/ Balance of payments. Department,
... Show MoreThis study aimed to reveal the extent to which the values of social peace are included in the content of social and national studies textbooks of the middle stage in kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To achieve this goal, the researcher used the descriptive analytical approach. The study sample consisted of all developed social and national studies textbooks of the middle stage in kingdom of Saudi Arabia in first and second semester of student books in edition of 1439-1440. The study tool was the analysis card. The study reached the following results: 1-The content of social and national studies textbooks of the middle stage in kingdom of Saudi Arabia as a whole included (38) social peace values of total (40) values, corresponding to the inclusio
... Show MoreThe present theoretical study analyzes the legacy of the Chicago School of Urban Sociology and evaluates it in the light of the growth and development of Chicago City and the establishment of sociology in it. Sociology has become an academic discipline recognized in the United States of America in the late nineteenth century, particularly, after the establishment of the first department of sociology in the University of Chicago in 1892. That was during the period of the rapid industrialization and sustainable growth of the Chicago City. The Chicago School relied on Chicago City in particular, as one of the American cities that grew and expanded rapidly in the first two decades of the twentieth century. At the end of the nineteenth centur
... Show MoreA seemingly uncorrelated regression (SUR) model is a special case of multivariate models, in which the error terms in these equations are contemporaneously related. The method estimator (GLS) is efficient because it takes into account the covariance structure of errors, but it is also very sensitive to outliers. The robust SUR estimator can dealing outliers. We propose two robust methods for calculating the estimator, which are (S-Estimations, and FastSUR). We find that it significantly improved the quality of SUR model estimates. In addition, the results gave the FastSUR method superiority over the S method in dealing with outliers contained in the data set, as it has lower (MSE and RMSE) and higher (R-Squared and R-Square Adjus
... Show MoreEquilibrium and rate of mixing of free flowing solid materials are found using gas fluidized bed. The solid materials were sand (size 0.7 mm), sugar (size0.7 mm) and 15% cast iron used as a tracer. The fluidizing gas was air with velocity ranged from 0.45-0.65 m/s while the mixing time was up to 10 minutes. The mixing index for each experiment was calculated by averaging the results of 10 samples taken from different radial and axial positions in fluidized QVF column 150 mm ID and 900 mm height.
The experimental results were used in solving a mathematical model of mixing rate and mixing index at an equilibrium proposed by Rose. The results show that mixing index increases with inc
... Show MoreThe proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.
In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete
... Show MoreIn this research, the effects of both current and argon gas pressure on the bending properties of welded joints were studied. Using the possible ranges of welding gas pressures and currents, Tungsten inert gas welding (TIG) of stainless steel (304) sheet was used to obtain their influence on the maximum bending force of the (TIG) welded joints. Design of experiment (DOE) ‘version 10' was used to determine the design matrix of experiments depending on the used levels of the input factors. Response surface methodology (RSM) technique was used to obtain an empirical mathematical model for the maximum bending force as a function of welding parameters (Current and Argon gas pressure). Also, the analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to verif
... Show MoreThe turning process has various factors, which affecting machinability and should be investigated. These are surface roughness, tool life, power consumption, cutting temperature, machining force components, tool wear, and chip thickness ratio. These factors made the process nonlinear and complicated. This work aims to build neural network models to correlate the cutting parameters, namely cutting speed, depth of cut and feed rate, to the machining force and chip thickness ratio. The turning process was performed on high strength aluminum alloy 7075-T6. Three radial basis neural networks are constructed for cutting force, passive force, and feed force. In addition, a radial basis network is constructed to model the chip thickness ratio. T
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