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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Article Origin in international relations Peace or war, monetary Reviews
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The roots of international relations: peace or war: A critical review A great debate has taken place about international relations between scholars concerning peace and War .The concept of root is matched with that of exception. And the importance of the research lies in the ensuing results in the report about the legitimacy of war and the space it holds, so if the origin of international relation is war .the obstacles against it are going to decrease .and if the origin lies in peace then the dimension of its legitimacy will narrow. key words: international relation –peace-war. Résumé : L’Origine des relations internationales : guerre ou paix : révisions critiques L’origine des relations internationales entre guerre et paix, a s

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Transformation in International Polar System: Study of the future of the nonpolar system
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The study of the future of the international system currently appears, according to scientific data and existing facts in light of the emergence of international actors from non-states and international informal institutions, to be heading towards a non-polarity system and this trend is fueled by many variables to reduce polarity, and it is expected in the future that the international system will turn into a non-polarity.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 11 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Principles Adopted by Abu Ubaida in his book (metaphor of the Koran)
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Praise be to God, prayer and peace be upon the Messenger of Allah and after:

   The science of interpretation is related to the book of God Almighty; it is considered one of the most honorable sciences. It started with a long time ago. In the early days of Islam, the area of ​​the Islamic state expanded. The people entered the religion of Allah in groups. In the language, and people do not know more than the meanings of the Koran was the need to write in this scie234nce is strong, and perhaps the first of the thousand in the (meanings of the Koran) Abu Ubaida in his book (metaphor of the Koran), Abu Ubaida was affected by his specialization in Arabic science, Prominent on his book.

The second section wa

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Новые направления и течения начала Серебряного века The Silver Age and the New Trends That appeared at the Twentieth Century.
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    Годы, принадлежащие концу XIX – началу XX столетия, вошли в русскую литературу под красивым названием Серебряный век. В это время в стране появился целый ряд выдающихся поэтов, имена которых навсегда останутся в русской и мировой литературе. Это Ахматова, Гумилев, Блок, Маяковский и многие другие. Все эти люди творили в нелегкое для России время. Началом Серебряного века условно считают 189

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 07 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The Hadiths That Al-Bazzar Graduated it in His Musnad for it Azzatiha "Graduation and Study"
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     This research was one of the terms that used by Al-Bazzar  in his musnad and this term was  (Al-azza) who launched on some ways and hadiths and I collected those narration, and I have graduated and studied it to access to the meaning which Al-Bazzar want that from this description. In the introduction of the research, I have mention the importance of the subject and the reasons for his selection and also my plan,  a preface where I mentioned the definition of Al-Bazzar and his musnad, then in the first section I defined Al-azza linguistically and idiomatically , the second section I studied the hadiths that Al-Bazzar described them with azza ,and then I conclude it with my results that I have reach

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
" الصعوبات التي تواجه طلبة الدراسات العليا في أعداد البحوث
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تتزايد الصعوبات التي يعاني منها الطالب بشكل خاص والتدريسي بشكل عام في المرحلة الراهنة وذلك لنقص المصادر والكوادر العلمية الرصينة التي كانت تفخر بها جامعات العراق ولا سيما جامعة بغداد اذ أن الجامعات هي اعلى قيمة في السلم التعليمي وتعد بيئة نقية أوجدها المجتمع للتربية من خلال المناهج الدراسية التي تؤدي بشكل سليم وان الجامعة بوصفها سياقاً اجتماعياً لها أهمية في التشجيع على الإبداع وتعد جيلاً من الشباب للعمل

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 24 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Analytical Study of the Content of Social and National Studies Textbooks of the Middle Stage in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the Light of the Values of Social Peace
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This study aimed to reveal the extent to which the values of social peace are included in the content of social and national studies textbooks of the middle stage in kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To achieve this goal, the researcher used the descriptive analytical approach. The study sample consisted of all developed social and national studies textbooks of the middle stage in kingdom of Saudi Arabia in first and second semester of student books in edition of 1439-1440. The study tool was the analysis card. The study reached the following results: 1-The content of social and national studies textbooks of the middle stage in kingdom of Saudi Arabia as a whole included (38) social peace values of total (40) values, corresponding to the inclusio

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of Testosterone Enanthate Modeling of Polycystic Ovary on Liver Irs-2 mRNA Expression in Rats: A Brief Report
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There are many animal models for polycystic ovary (PCO); using exogenous testosterone enanthate is one of the methods of induction of these models. However, induction of insulin resistance should also be studied in the modeling technics. Therefore, the present study aims to investigate the expression of insulin receptor substrate (Irs)-2 mRNA in the liver tissue of rat PCO model. Nineteen Wistar rats were divided into three groups; (1) PCO modeling group (N =7) received daily 1.0 mg/100g testosterone enanthate solved in olive oil along with free access dextrose water 5%, (2) vehicle group (N =6), which handled like the PCO group, but did not receive testosterone enanthate, (3) control group (N =6) with standard care. Al

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2010
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Prediction of Equilibrium Mixing Index and Optimum Mixing Time for Three solid materials in Fluidized Column
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     Equilibrium and rate of mixing of free flowing solid materials are found using gas fluidized bed. The solid materials were sand (size 0.7 mm), sugar (size0.7 mm) and 15% cast iron used as a tracer. The fluidizing gas was air with velocity ranged from 0.45-0.65 m/s while the mixing time was up to 10 minutes. The mixing index for each experiment was calculated by averaging the results of 10 samples taken from different radial and axial positions in fluidized QVF column 150 mm ID and 900 mm height.

     The experimental results were used in solving a mathematical model of mixing rate and mixing index at an equilibrium proposed by Rose. The results show that mixing index increases with inc

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 18 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

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Scopus (1)
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