تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Praise be to God, prayer and peace be upon the Messenger of Allah and after:
The science of interpretation is related to the book of God Almighty; it is considered one of the most honorable sciences. It started with a long time ago. In the early days of Islam, the area of the Islamic state expanded. The people entered the religion of Allah in groups. In the language, and people do not know more than the meanings of the Koran was the need to write in this scie234nce is strong, and perhaps the first of the thousand in the (meanings of the Koran) Abu Ubaida in his book (metaphor of the Koran), Abu Ubaida was affected by his specialization in Arabic science, Prominent on his book.
The second section wa
... Show MoreГоды, принадлежащие концу XIX – началу XX столетия, вошли в русскую литературу под красивым названием Серебряный век. В это время в стране появился целый ряд выдающихся поэтов, имена которых навсегда останутся в русской и мировой литературе. Это Ахматова, Гумилев, Блок, Маяковский и многие другие. Все эти люди творили в нелегкое для России время. Началом Серебряного века условно считают 189
... Show Moreتتزايد الصعوبات التي يعاني منها الطالب بشكل خاص والتدريسي بشكل عام في المرحلة الراهنة وذلك لنقص المصادر والكوادر العلمية الرصينة التي كانت تفخر بها جامعات العراق ولا سيما جامعة بغداد اذ أن الجامعات هي اعلى قيمة في السلم التعليمي وتعد بيئة نقية أوجدها المجتمع للتربية من خلال المناهج الدراسية التي تؤدي بشكل سليم وان الجامعة بوصفها سياقاً اجتماعياً لها أهمية في التشجيع على الإبداع وتعد جيلاً من الشباب للعمل
... Show MoreThis research was one of the terms that used by Al-Bazzar in his musnad and this term was (Al-azza) who launched on some ways and hadiths and I collected those narration, and I have graduated and studied it to access to the meaning which Al-Bazzar want that from this description. In the introduction of the research, I have mention the importance of the subject and the reasons for his selection and also my plan, a preface where I mentioned the definition of Al-Bazzar and his musnad, then in the first section I defined Al-azza linguistically and idiomatically , the second section I studied the hadiths that Al-Bazzar described them with azza ,and then I conclude it with my results that I have reach
... Show MoreThe turning process has various factors, which affecting machinability and should be investigated. These are surface roughness, tool life, power consumption, cutting temperature, machining force components, tool wear, and chip thickness ratio. These factors made the process nonlinear and complicated. This work aims to build neural network models to correlate the cutting parameters, namely cutting speed, depth of cut and feed rate, to the machining force and chip thickness ratio. The turning process was performed on high strength aluminum alloy 7075-T6. Three radial basis neural networks are constructed for cutting force, passive force, and feed force. In addition, a radial basis network is constructed to model the chip thickness ratio. T
... Show MoreThe uptake of Cd(II) ions from simulated wastewater onto olive pips was modeled using artificial neural network (ANN) which consisted of three layers. Based on 112 batch experiments, the effect of contact time (10-240 min), initial pH (2-6), initial concentration (25-250 mg/l), biosorbent dosage (0.05-2 g/100 ml), agitation speed (0-250 rpm) and temperature (20-60ºC) were studied. The maximum uptake (=92 %) of Cd(II) was achieved at optimum parameters of 60 min, 6, 50 mg/l, 1 g/100 ml, 250 rpm and 25ºC respectively.
Tangent sigmoid and linear transfer functions of ANN for hidden and output layers respectively with 7 neurons were sufficient to present good predictions for cadmium removal efficiency with coefficient of correlatio
... Show MoreIn this research, the effects of both current and argon gas pressure on the bending properties of welded joints were studied. Using the possible ranges of welding gas pressures and currents, Tungsten inert gas welding (TIG) of stainless steel (304) sheet was used to obtain their influence on the maximum bending force of the (TIG) welded joints. Design of experiment (DOE) ‘version 10' was used to determine the design matrix of experiments depending on the used levels of the input factors. Response surface methodology (RSM) technique was used to obtain an empirical mathematical model for the maximum bending force as a function of welding parameters (Current and Argon gas pressure). Also, the analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to verif
... Show MoreThe first few years of life is the basis for proper human personality and this Made by scientific studies and research need to make all efforts to achieve the early development of children and demonstrated by the efficiency and effectiveness of great success in the educational and developmental programs that have been applied to accelerate the children's growth rate in the various their sides, the current research aims to: identify the most successful international experience in the care and upbringing of children in early childhood has been determined by current research and previous studies manners within the cognitive perspective and dealing with the subject of this research and with respect to the theoretical framework Presented rese
... Show MoreThe research aims to show the role or extent of the impact of financing in its various forms on the municipal performance before and after the financial deficit through relying on the analytical research methodology of the research community represented by the Directorate General of Municipalities and the Directorate of Maysan municipalities as a sample of research (13) municipal institutions for a period of (8) years, Considering the completion of the final accounts of these years, which provides the necessary data for the study, in addition to the variation in the quality and amounts of grants allocated to municipal institutions during these years, which gives a clearer and more comprehensive picture of the reality of allocatio
... Show MoreThe Political Thinking Regarded as an important element for the formulation of the stat, weather in its formation, the structure of it s entity, its political system and it s governmental instruments .The political thinking can not act without determined strategy, So they intend to work hard to formulate a railed strategy that make them able to determine its directions to general issues.
The Study aimed to solve the problem through the following question:
1- What are the levels of Political Thinking and Strategic Analysis in the financial ministry?
2- What are the relation ship between the dimensions of Political T
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