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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
International and domestic political conflicts in south Yemen1869-1918
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In the South of yement, when the accupation of Aden in 1839 by the British, British politics has proceeded in accordance with interests in promoting the existence and exploitation of this important site to implement their interests. Historians believe that Britain played a major role in the conflicts that have taken place on the land of Yemen, through a series of military and political dealings between them and the Ottoman Empire prior to withdrawal of Yemen and between local authorities and power to Yemen, such interactions have led to very serious consequences for the future of Yemen and Yemen was often divided into three parts, the northern areas under the authority of Imam Yahya, and the South, under the control of Britain, Asir and

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 09 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Neural Network Modeling of Cutting Force and Chip Thickness Ratio for Turning Aluminum Alloy 7075-T6
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The turning process has various factors, which affecting machinability and should be investigated. These are surface roughness, tool life, power consumption, cutting temperature, machining force components, tool wear, and chip thickness ratio. These factors made the process nonlinear and complicated. This work aims to build neural network models to correlate the cutting parameters, namely cutting speed, depth of cut and feed rate, to the machining force and chip thickness ratio. The turning process was performed on high strength aluminum alloy 7075-T6. Three radial basis neural networks are constructed for cutting force, passive force, and feed force. In addition, a radial basis network is constructed to model the chip thickness ratio. T

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2016
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Modeling the removal of Cadmium Ions from Aqueous Solutions onto Olive Pips Using Neural Network Technique
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The uptake of Cd(II) ions from simulated wastewater onto olive pips was modeled using artificial neural network (ANN) which consisted of three layers. Based on 112 batch experiments, the effect of contact time (10-240 min), initial pH (2-6), initial concentration (25-250 mg/l), biosorbent dosage (0.05-2 g/100 ml), agitation speed (0-250 rpm) and temperature (20-60ºC) were studied. The maximum uptake (=92 %) of Cd(II) was achieved at optimum parameters of 60 min, 6, 50 mg/l, 1 g/100 ml, 250 rpm and 25ºC respectively.

Tangent sigmoid and linear transfer functions of ANN for hidden and output layers respectively with 7 neurons were sufficient to present good predictions for cadmium removal efficiency with coefficient of correlatio

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Modeling of Bending Properties of Stainless Steel 304 Sheets Welded by Tungsten Inert Gas Welding Process
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In this research, the effects of both current and argon gas pressure on the bending properties of welded joints were studied. Using the possible ranges of welding gas pressures and currents, Tungsten inert gas welding (TIG) of stainless steel (304) sheet was used to obtain their influence on the maximum bending force of the (TIG) welded joints. Design of experiment (DOE) ‘version 10' was used to determine the design matrix of experiments depending on the used levels of the input factors. Response surface methodology (RSM) technique was used to obtain an empirical mathematical model for the maximum bending force as a function of welding parameters (Current and Argon gas pressure). Also, the analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to verif

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Level of Inclusion of Citizenship Values in English Language Textbooks “We Can Series” for the Elementary Education in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
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Abstract

The study aims to reveal the level of inclusion of citizenship values in the English language textbooks (We Can) series for elementary education in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To achieve this objective, the "content analysis" methodology was used. A content analysis card was designed to include (6) main areas of citizenship values, it consisted of (28) sub-indicators of citizenship values that were supposed to be included in the English language textbook series (We Can) for elementary education. The study sample consisted of all the English language textbooks (We Can) series for elementary education, which consisted of (6) textbooks, two for each class. The results of the study indicated that there is a

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Publication Date
Wed May 17 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Except that of wishing between Sibawayh and grammarians
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The scholars of Arabic - may God reward them with the reward of the doers of good - laid down the rules of this language, the cycle of which never ceases to dazzle minds, so they adopted principles according to which they judged the denomination of this word, and the accusative of that, and determined in its light the worker and the done, until they reached us the rules and foundations of our dear language, and it is obvious that they differ. The origins of grammarians from one school of thought to another, or from one world to another, especially with regard to the subsidiary rules, and this difference was clearly reflected in what we have received from the rules, as we find a difference in the rulings that they restricted to the one fa

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 28 2023
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Habits Reflected in American Action Films
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The research aims to identify the predominant habits and behaviors promoted by American action films frequently streamed on Cinemana website—a specialized platform for streaming films and series as the most followed platform. This platform offers a range of film genres, including the latest releases, free of charge. Using a simple random sampling method, twenty action films were selected for the study. Consequently, the researcher opted for a descriptive-analytical approach, deemed most appropriate for achieving the research objectives, employing content analysis as a tool to scrutinize these films. The findings highlighted that behavioral habits associated with scenes of violence, destruction, sabotage, revenge

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 21 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
المواد المواد التي يكتب عليها المخطوط
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The research deals with a historical study of the materials written by the manuscript since the beginning of its inception in the Arab era in the pre-Islamic era and the origin of Islamic and the following in successive eras.It is a variety of materials ,including Al-Asab,karanif ,parchment ,leather and many other

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 21 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Problems Facing the Teachers of Kindergartens
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The research aims at:

  1. Identifying the problems facing kindergarten teachers.
  2. Identifying the nature of the problems facing kindergarten teachers.

To achieve the aim of the research, the researcher prepared a questionnaire to identify the problems that face the teachers of kindergartens. The questionnaire was subjected to the consultation of a group of specialized expertise in the educational and psychological sciences to certify the propriety of the items of the questionnaire and it gained a rate of (80%), and the stability of the scale gained (0.91) and it stands for a correlation parameter with a statistical significance and it was calculated by using Person’s R Corre

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Numerical Simulation of Unsaturated Soil Water Flow from a Trickle Point System, Considering Evaporation and Root Water Uptake
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This research was carried out to study the effect of plants on the wetted area for two soil types in Iraq and predict an equation to determine the wetted radius and depth for two different soil types cultivated with different types of plants, the wetting patterns for the soils were predicted at every thirty minute for a total irrigation time equal to 3 hr. Five defferent discharges of emitter and five initial volumetric soil moisture contents were used ranged between field capacity and wilting point were utilized to simulate the wetting patterns. The simulation of the water flow from a single point emitter was completed by utilized HYDRUS-2D/3D software, version 2.05. Two methods were used in developing equations to predict the domains o

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