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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 28 2023
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Role of Ethnographic Programs on Documentary Channels in Enhancing Audience Knowledge
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This research investigates the engagement of the Iraqi audience with ethnographic programs and their impact on knowledge enhancement and intellectual perspectives. A questionnaire consisting of closed-ended questions was designed and administered to a purposive sample of 400 participants who exclusively follow ethnographic programs and documentary channels. The data were transcribed and subjected to statistical analysis using the SPSS software to ensure reliability and test hypotheses. The findings revealed that Al Jazeera Documentary Channel had the highest viewership percentage among respondents for ethnographic programs, while DW (Deutsche Welle) had the lowest viewership percentage. This suggests that Al Jazee

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 12 2021
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الصناعات والحرف التقليدية ودورها في السياحة والتنمية المحلية في صنعاء القديمة
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 This article aims to identify the traditional industries and crafts that exist in the old city of Sana’a in Yemen. It also aims to explain the pioneering role that these industries play in attracting tourism,

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of fun in the workplace In achieving internal marketing (Applied research)
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    The research aims to study the impact of the dimensions of fun in the workplace in achieving internal marketing And knowing the type of relationships That link the dimensions of fun in the workplace With each other, None of the researchers mentioned (to the researcher's knowledge) the link between fun in the workplace and internal marketing From this point of view the main objective is determined, which is to study the effect of fun in the workplace in internal marketing, The research was conducted at Al Salam Public Company for Communications and Information Technology The research community was represented by (308) employees of the aforementioned company , Where a random sample was selected tha

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Influence of Emotional Intelligence in promoting the Empowerment of Employees
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The subject of the research seeks to indicate the level of influence of emotional intelligence in the empowerment of workers in the Ministry of Industry and Minerals General Company for Food Products. The research problem is illustrated by knowing all of the following:

  • The level of the relationship between emotional intelligence in promoting the empowerment of employees of the Ministry of Industry and Minerals.
  • The impact of emotional intelligence on the empowerment of workers in the ministry.
  • Recognize the interest of the management of the Ministry of Industry and Minerals in emotional intelligence and the

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The effect of changing the grammatical ruling in the Qur’anic readings on changing the jurisprudential ruling
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 The study aimed to show the jurisprudential impact of the multiplicity of directing the syntactic movement of the Qur’anic readings, and it was based on the inductive, descriptive and analytical approach. , such as the difference in explaining the ruling on washing the feet, and the one who meditates on the Qur’anic readings notices in it a picture of the Qur’anic miracles, and this is what is manifested by the brevity of the speech. Collapse the research, and the research tried to trace the Qur’anic readings, contained in the verses, and the readings were limited to what is related to the explanatory meaning mentioned by the commentators, by clarifying the explanatory relationship between the Qur’anic readings and the me

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 13 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
أبو بكر الرازي رائد الطب السريري في كتابه الحاوي في الطب
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في مدينة الري القريبة من طهران الحالية ولد ابو بكر محمد بن يحيى بن زكريا الرازي سنة 251هـ/865 م وسميً بالرازي نسبة الى مدينة الري 0 أحب الرازي الغناء والضرب على العود في بداية حياته ثم هجر ذلك كله واتجه الى الطب والكيمياء 0 درس الطب في شبابه في بغداد وقد اخطأ بعض المؤرخين في ظنهم ان

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Publication Date
Wed May 10 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The role of historical memory on social and Cultural mobility of Hilla Old city
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As long as the place in which a person lives has a meaning and temporal dimensions , memory is the main axis of these dimensions , today , city centers and old historical sectors of cities are abandoned , and began to turn into slums , the contradiction between old and historical sectors led cities to lose their identity while people lost their sense of belongingness to the old sectors where their ancestors used to live . The old city of Hilla used to have social , historical and cultural role on determining the identity . The study problem can be summarized as the ( lack of studies regarding the impact of historical memory related to Hilla old city on social and cultural mobility ) , the study hypothesis claims that the social , histori

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Social Risks and Development Gaps in Iraq: A Social Study in the City of Baghdad
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Social risks posed a great challenge to the development path in Iraq, which resulted in widening the development gaps, whether these gaps were between rural and embargoed areas, or between Iraqi governorates, and the gender gap. Besides, the nature of the reciprocal relationship between the social risks and the development process requires the adoption of development trends that are sensitive to the risks that take upon themselves the prompt and correct response to these risks, away from randomness and confusion that Iraq suffered from for decades. However, currently, the situation has differed a great deal. This is because the size and types of such gaps have widened and become more complicated than before; a matter which has led to hav

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 09 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Strategic Planning and its Importance in Building Institutional Work in the National Insurance
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The aim of the research is to identify the reality of strategic planning in the National Insurance Company and its importance in building institutional work and to identify the requirements that enable this company to successfully implement strategic planning and the obstacles that limit its application and then achieve the marketing objectives of this company. This study started from the fact that there is a problem represented by the main question that was stated.                                            &nbsp

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The role of journalism in the fight against terrorism
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The media plays an important role in a number of functions performed by them. Press is one of those media which had and still have a clear role in addressing the various issues, topics, and events. Journalism is no longer as expressed by owners of the liberal theory – it seeks to raise the instincts – but it began to excite the minds of readers to meet their needs. At the same time, it does not neglect the search for the truth and work to deliver it to readers. Some have identified a set of tasks carried out by the press including the interest in public affairs, the needs of the community, work to provide happiness, what is beneficial and useful and combat the negative phenomenon and to address the deviations facing society. The comi

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