Preferred Language
Articles
/
Pxc4s40BVTCNdQwCChkw
نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
...Show More Authors

تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Oct 31 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
اثر أثر الرومانسية في الادب العربي في بدايات القرن العشرين
...Show More Authors

تعد الرمانسية ثورة فنية وسياسية والجتماعية وايدلوجية ذات أهمية كبيرة، وقد احتلت جزءاً من القرن التاسع عشر وجزءاً أكبر من القرن العشرين في أوربا وبقية العالم، ومازالت تظهر ملامحها في كثير من الاعمال الادبية حتى الآن، مثل الحرية والفردية والديمقراطية والوطنية  وكثير من الامور.

View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Tue Jan 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Efforts in cataloging manuscripts some Arab and international libraries
...Show More Authors

The Arab Islamic Manuscripts in the science libraries humanly global heritage in different types of knowledge and science, as they were not confined to a particular flag but extended to include all kinds of science, and to facilitate the knowledge of these types of manuscripts has been necessary to operate them indexed in most libraries , because it is important in determining the size of those manuscripts and set them up and facilitate the work of the investigators, as well as the significance of indexing to know printed manuscripts in order to avoid repetition of the publication of the manuscript more than once, especially if the deployment is to be characterized by accurate scientific integrity and following the origins of the scienti

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Thu Feb 07 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
دور قبیلة بجیلة في التاریخ العربي الإسلامي في العصر الأموي
...Show More Authors

The Bajilian had their important part in the first civilian war between
Muslims. Whether they were against the Umayyad caliphate or with it, who
were small in number, but they had their important part in that actions.
The Bajilian who were against the umayyad caliphate had an important
role in the fall of Umayyad monarchy.
The tribe connections between the bajilians were stronger than their
political differences, which had influnces in that time. The bajilians who were
in muawiya palace were a good diffencer for the bajilian who were in the side
of the caliph ali. They managed to be their medicater in the muawiya palace. 

There were big efforts giving by others in order to decrease the bajilian
eff

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Importance of Effort and its Impact in Building the Society in the Light of the Holy Book and Sunna
...Show More Authors

The Importance of Effort and its Impact in Building the Society in the Light of
the Holy Book and Sunna.
Thank for God and peace be upon Prophet Muhammad, His hose hold and
Companions.
This research is to refute a fault : that Islam as a religioncalls for laziness and
dependence and this in first, Second, to show the originality of the Islamic method in
building and construction.
This research Starts with an introduction in which I refer to the nature of the
Islamic method and its way of work in life: that it is a divine method that is achieved
by the effort of the people them selfves and not through a divine extraordinary power:
The research explains the shift in the peoples life who were addressed by this<

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
EL TRATAMIENTO DE LAS UNIDADES FRASEOLÓGICAS EN EL TEXTO PERIÓDISTICO
...Show More Authors

The team of this investigation deals with phraseology and the importance of its organized use in the media of communication, especially in the daily newspaper which is used by different society classes.                                                                                      

 So, the journalist

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Formal and Functional Perspectives in the Analysis of Hyperboles in Obama's Speeches
...Show More Authors

     Hyperbole is an obvious and intentional exaggeration in the sense that it takes things to such an extreme that the audience goes too far and then pulls itself back to a more reasonable position, i.e. it is an extravagant statement or figure of speech not intended to be taken literally. This paper focuses on the formal and functional perspectives in the analysis of hyperbole which American candidates produce in their speeches in electoral campaigns, for it is hypothesized that candidates in their electoral campaigns use hyperbolic expressions excessively to persuade voters of the objectives of their electoral campaign programs. Hence, it aims to analyze hyperbole in context to determine the range of pragmatic func

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Increased epidemic when Akbari in his book Explanation in the expression of the Koran
...Show More Authors

Increased epidemic when Akbari in his book Explanation in the expression of the Koran

View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Verbal Antonyms: A research in the relationship in meaning Between the words in Arabic language
...Show More Authors

Verbal Antonyms: A research in the relationship in meaning Between the words in Arabic language

View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of monetary policy tools in stimulating local investments in Algeria
...Show More Authors

Abstract

The various countries seek to encourage their local investments through the various policies they follow. The most important of these is the monetary policy, which is a means and procedures taken by the monetary authority to control the supply of money and maintain its stability of its financial impact on economic activity.
       The effect of monetary policy is to stimulate domestic investment through money supply that is inversely related to the interest rate and a direct relationship with domestic investment. When money supply increases, interest rates fall and local investment growth rates rise, but when the rise in money supply is high, Inflationary measure

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Nov 14 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الوعظ الوعظ في العصر الاموي وأثره في الجوانب الإدارية والسياسية
...Show More Authors

This research is an attempt 0f discovering an advice and mention kinds of politics  with administration sides through the Umayyad  era in the way of showing it which had directed to successors and princes in the state , whereas this subject did not take the chance , as historian research which dealt with this advice through the continuous period after the early Islam and Umayyad era

View Publication Preview PDF