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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 31 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
THE ROLE OF MARKETING MIX AND INNOVATION ON SERVICE DESIGN EXPLORATORY RESEARCH AT COMPANY KOREK TELECOM.: THE ROLE OF MARKETING MIX AND INNOVATION ON SERVICE DESIGN EXPLORATORY RESEARCH AT COMPANY KOREK TELECOM.
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The success of the company's strategy depends to a large extent on the success of its functional areas, the marketing Mix makes the company more able to monitor the external environment and the rapid changes related to competitors and customers, as well as the innovation contributes to meet the needs of customers and the requirements of competition and try to find solutions to various problems in Innovation ways, and thus integrated marketing and Innovation efforts in the company towards the design of competitive services to meet the requirements of customers and competition. The research aims to determine how marketing Mix and innovation to design unique and distinct services compared to the competitors, through exporator a sample of en

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 15 2019
Journal Name
مجلة كلية التربية للبنات
واقع تطبيق عمليات ادارة المعرفة في كليات التربية في جامعة بغداد
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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposed method to estimate missing values in Non - Parametric multiple regression model
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In this paper, we will provide a proposed method to estimate missing values for the Explanatory variables for Non-Parametric Multiple Regression Model and compare it with the Imputation Arithmetic mean Method, The basis of the idea of this method was based on how to employ the causal relationship between the variables in finding an efficient estimate of the missing value, we rely on the use of the Kernel estimate by Nadaraya – Watson Estimator , and on Least Squared Cross Validation (LSCV) to estimate the Bandwidth, and we use the simulation study to compare between the two methods.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
СЕМАНТИЧЕСКИЕ ОТНОШЕНИЯ ПАРАДИГМЫ ТЕКСТА В НАУЧНОЙ ЛИТЕРАТУРЕ РУССКОГО ЯЗЫКА
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Аннотация: В данной статье исследуется проблема семантики текстовой парадигмы как одного из активных вопросов языковой науки о тексте, рассматриваются семантические отношения и их роль в раскрытии тех смысловых связей, на основе которых можно отличать типы семантических отношений «синонимия, антонимия, полисемия», выдвигается положение о семантических отношен

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
التعارض بين الرواية والفتوى وأثره في اختلاف الفقهاء في أحكام العبادات
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فإن مسألة التعارض بين الرواية، والفتوى، من المسائل المشهورة عند الأصوليين والفقهاء، وهي من مباحث السنة عند الأصوليين، والتي تبنى عليها مسائل متعددة، وهي من أسباب اختلاف الفقهاء، فإذا ما روى أحد الرواة حديثاً معيناً، ثم عمل بخلاف ما روى، فللعلماء في ذلك خلاف، مبني على أن العبرة بروايته

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 09 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Infertility problems HS Effects on human development
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  • The problem of infertility considers one of the chronic problem a which faced the
    individual & families equally . This problem causes a negative effects in psychological ,
    social and development fields. The infertility contributes in weakening the human
    development, when the human development has become as a centre point which centered
    about individual preparing , rehabilitation, training and knowledge toreach to the required
    excellence.
    We think that , the infertility destroys the socially development; therefore the socially and
    scientific institutions are working hard to find successful solution to resolve the problem
    infertility through sophisticated and scientific methods. This problem
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Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2019
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
What Bukhari shortened to a bug in its attribution: (Applied study in the correct mosque)
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This study aims to show some of Imam Al-Bukhari's criticism of the Hadith from the Metn side, and part of his methodology in dealing with the correct hadiths that are tainted by a bug. This research focuses on what Imam Al-Bukhari summarized in his Sahih illusion of the narrator in his attribution, or uniqueness of the narrator, or to suggest a novel. We find that Bukhari sometimes abbreviates the hadeeth, and does not bring it out completely in his Sahih. He is satisfied with the abbreviated position but has done so because of a bug in it. The Bukhari usually does not declare his intention but knows this through tracking, inspection, and research of the correct hadiths.

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 13 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الخلاف الخلاف على ولاية العهد وأثره في ظهور الأحزاب في إنكلترا
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It may say that of difference towards a state that had  witnessed the birth of modern party system in England ،and it appear a new case of  organization and use ways effecting in general opinion through the election parties that had different in their ideology as Alweel party which dealt with religion related among its members with Buretan with its members participation understandings of free expression of their opinions trying to fight the control of Christ men in a time that Tory party was Enklikanian  more than as it was loyalty one .

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Military Arrangements for the Battle of Kadesh in 1274 BC During the Era of the New Kingdom
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The Battle of Kadesh is replete with many military arrangements that reflect the tremendous development of war preparations in the thirteenth century BC; where the expressive pictures the Egyptians left on some of the walls of their temples show the tremendous ability to organize and divide the forces and the great development that affected the war machine. Furthermore, the text accompanied these pictures reveal some news about that battle, which is considered one of the most important wars in the ancient world. Thus, the importance of the study lies in the fact that it examines one of the most important battles of the ancient Near East, the results of which had great repercussions on the region. This is because it is the most abundant B

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 05 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Technical Experimentation in contemporary plastic arts
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The current research that entitled (t Technical Experimentation incontemporary plastic arts) deals with study in used techniques and the material's functioning and its variations in artwork.It present the following questions :- 1-Does technical experimentation for mate an important phenomenon in contemporary art.2-Does technical experimentation construct an ability in creating new constructive and formative achievement in plastic art ?.The research includes three chapters . the first one deals with the problem of the research and its limits with the specification of terms . the second chapter present the technical Experimentation in contemporary plastic art with shapes display . the third chapter involves conclusions with discussions . t

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