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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Role of Participatory Budgeting in Improving Performance in light of Covid 19
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The current research aims to analyze the role of participatory budgeting in improving performance, especially during crises such as the Covid-19 crisis. The research used the descriptive analytical method to reach the results by distributing 100 questionnaires to a number of employees in Iraqi joint stock companies and at multiple administrative levels. The research came to several important conclusions, the most important of which is that the bottom-up approach to budgeting produces more achievable budgets than the top-down approach, which is imposed on the company by senior management with much less employee participation. Additionally, there is a better information flow from the lower levels of the organization to the upper management

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 07 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
آیات النصح والإرشاد في الأخلاق في سورة البقرة ( دراسة وتحلیل )
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This Research on (Ayat of Advice and Guidance of Morals
Included in Sorat Al-Baqara) is a study for the virtual of Ayat
dealing with advice and guidance.
The importance of this research title comes from the study of
the Holy Quran from one side and the importance of advice and
guidance from the other side, besides, we are truly in need for
such study in our life.

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 31 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
اثر أثر الرومانسية في الادب العربي في بدايات القرن العشرين
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تعد الرمانسية ثورة فنية وسياسية والجتماعية وايدلوجية ذات أهمية كبيرة، وقد احتلت جزءاً من القرن التاسع عشر وجزءاً أكبر من القرن العشرين في أوربا وبقية العالم، ومازالت تظهر ملامحها في كثير من الاعمال الادبية حتى الآن، مثل الحرية والفردية والديمقراطية والوطنية  وكثير من الامور.

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 26 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الموظفون العثمانيون في ايالة الجزائر (دراسة في أوضاعهم الاجتماعية والاقتصادية)
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        Ottoman Empire created in the state of Algeria staff who manage its affairs on behalf of the Ottomans, who identified their functions and was mostly soldiers Alancksharien, but these soon engaged in Algerian society and coexist with him, and became them their own interests and participated people there in their business and their trades until it became their property and provinces and the interests they manage to order provide for a living.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The Holy Totem in Qur’an, a study in the light of sociolinguistics
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The sacred totem is one of the social phenomena that occupied the ideas of researchers, and took up a wide area of ​​their research, and it is one of those phenomena that emerged from one of the translations of the Tabu; Who took a psychological and anthropological analysis   Because it is one of the social practices, and the main focus of it is the human group and its source is religion. Therefore, this research came with demands, the first of which is to give a semantic concept of the Tommy sanctuary, and then the analytical aspect by standing on the sacred things in the Qur’anic text that God Almighty sanctified, and the third requirement is to examine what people have sanctified, as an analysis of the verses that have

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Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Leadership Skills and their Impact on Strategic Planning: Applied Research in the Iraqi Ministry of Planning
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The present search addressed the " leadership skills and their impact on strategic planning " Where has the objective of leadership skills and strategic planning of increasing importance at the present time , for being fairly modern topics ,which have a tremendous impact on the success of organizations..                                                                        &n

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Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Nov 13 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
نهر نهر الخوصر في نينوى في ضوء تقانة التحسس النائي
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The river "Al Khawser" has a significant role in the history of civilization of Nineveh city in north of Iraq that makes studying river channel and previous geomorphological analysis with its relation to the political and economical in the city in the ancient history depending on remote sensing technology with aerial imagery interpretation because it is easily available, multiple use, engineered integration, and low cost compared to other technology, this paper discovered that the current channel of river "Al Khawaser" is not the real old path

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 16 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The Role of Islam in Developing Some Basic Concepts in Town Planning
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The arise of Islam as a multidimensional changing phenomenon with its own revolutionary and comprehensive character was inherent with a lot of alterations in social aspects , and this is explicit particularly in the scope of urban life and town planning . Essentially, Islamic style of life has its own urban identity. The urbanization process in Islam has been developed across two integrated sides, the first one concerned on ideational and theoretical aspects , while the other associated with practice .Many urban centers emerged during the Islamic era since the erection of Basrah , the first Islamic town in the middle of the 7th. centaury. Some contemporary urban concepts , both environmental and social could be noticed in Islamic

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 25 2023
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
مرويات الإمام محمد بن علي الباقر ( ) في الغسل في كتب
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The research titled (narrations of Imam Muhammad bin Ali al-Baqir (upon him be peace) about washing, in the four books of Sunan - study and analysis -) deals with what was reported from the noble and purified hadiths about him, peace be upon him, through the four hadith works represented by Sunan Abu Dawud (d. 275 AH). And Al-Jami’ Al-Kabir (Sunan Al-Tirmidhi) (d. 279 AH), Sunan Al-Nasa’i (Al-Mujtaba) (d. 303 AH), and Sunan Ibn Majah (d. 273 AH), who is the venerable imam and jurist from the House of Prophethood, as he transmitted many traces from the Prophet, may God bless him and grant him peace. Upon him and his family, peace be upon him. The study focused on his narrations, including the rulings on washing

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 31 2014
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Energy Saving of Heat Gain by Using Buried Pipe Inside a Roof
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Abstract

    This work deals with a numerical investigation to evaluate the utilization of a water pipe buried inside a roof to reduce the heat gain and minimize the transmission of heat energy inside the conditioning space in summer season.     The numerical results of this paper showed that the reduction in heat gain and energy saving could be occurred with specific values of parameters, like the number of pipes per square meter, the ratio of pipe diameter to the roof thickness, and the pipe inlet water temperature. Comparing with a normal roof (without pipes), the results indicated a significant reduction in energy heat gain which is about 37.8% when the number of pipes per m

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