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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 07 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
الحوار ودوره في ترسيخ اسس التعايش السلمي والتسامح في المجتمع
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Dialogue is one of the basic data of human existence where we find religious, civilizational, educational, and cultural dialogue, and all of these types require interaction with the other that is intellectually, socially, or religiously different. It is the only way through which contact is made between individuals, groups, peoples, and states, and through dialogue, societies get advanced. Dialogue is extremely important in clarifying the true image that resides in the thought of the other side, especially that purposeful scientific dialogue in which the interlocutors are free from fanaticism and extremism. The current study aims to identify the importance of dialogue, conditions for constructive dialogue, types of dialogue, The importan

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2013
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
 Assignment method in the Holy Quran and some of its applications in Surat Al-Anaam
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Research objective: This research aims to unveil how to use the method of referral in understanding the Holy Quran.
        The reason for choosing the research: The one that invited me to write on this topic is the importance of the referral method, so I liked the research in it, and unveiled this wonderful Qur’anic method, so that it helps to understand the intention of God Almighty in his dear book.
       The research plan: The research was divided into three topics and a conclusion.
   As for the first topic, it is divided into two requirements. The first requirement deals with the definition of referral language.
In the second re

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 13 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الوعظ الوعظ في العصر الاموي وأثره في الجوانب الإدارية والسياسية
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This research is an attempt 0f discovering an advice and mention kinds of politics  with administration sides through the Umayyad  era in the way of showing it which had directed to successors and princes in the state , whereas this subject did not take the chance , as historian research which dealt with this advice through the continuous period after the early Islam and Umayyad era

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Diversity of Cultures and Ideologies in Society and its Impact on the Structure of Iraqi press
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The diversity of cultures is still the title of an Iraqi specificity that gave the society a diversity and this is reflected in the journalistic reality with the changing of the political system generate a new political and ideological life that differs from what is prevailed during the decades. However, its exacerbation of the degree of division is an additional duty for the press as a cultural platform and a knowledge bridge that contributes to the process of dialogue, addressing the differences, establishing a politically homogeneous structure through the state and socially by uniting all components of society and working to raise public awareness of the importance of national belonging to build a modern state. Cultural diversity is a

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Sep 25 2023
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
مرويات الإمام محمد بن علي الباقر ( ) في الغسل في كتب
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The research titled (narrations of Imam Muhammad bin Ali al-Baqir (upon him be peace) about washing, in the four books of Sunan - study and analysis -) deals with what was reported from the noble and purified hadiths about him, peace be upon him, through the four hadith works represented by Sunan Abu Dawud (d. 275 AH). And Al-Jami’ Al-Kabir (Sunan Al-Tirmidhi) (d. 279 AH), Sunan Al-Nasa’i (Al-Mujtaba) (d. 303 AH), and Sunan Ibn Majah (d. 273 AH), who is the venerable imam and jurist from the House of Prophethood, as he transmitted many traces from the Prophet, may God bless him and grant him peace. Upon him and his family, peace be upon him. The study focused on his narrations, including the rulings on washing

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Role of Participatory Budgeting in Improving Performance in light of Covid 19
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The current research aims to analyze the role of participatory budgeting in improving performance, especially during crises such as the Covid-19 crisis. The research used the descriptive analytical method to reach the results by distributing 100 questionnaires to a number of employees in Iraqi joint stock companies and at multiple administrative levels. The research came to several important conclusions, the most important of which is that the bottom-up approach to budgeting produces more achievable budgets than the top-down approach, which is imposed on the company by senior management with much less employee participation. Additionally, there is a better information flow from the lower levels of the organization to the upper management

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
مجلة القانون للدراسات والبحوث القانونية
كفالة الحق في الملكية الخاصة في اطار فرض ضريبة العرصات
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ان الضريبة المفروضة على المكلف يجب ان لا تكون قيدا على حق الملكية الخاصة

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 04 2020
Journal Name
عين شمس
العدد الإيقاعي بحث في مفهوم الكم والزمن في فلسفة الايقاع
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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2006
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
تاملات في الاطر العامة والخاصة للفكر السياسي في ليبيا القديمة
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تأملات في الاطر العامة والخاصة للفكر السياسي في ليبيا القديمة

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Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Feb 07 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
آیات النصح والإرشاد في الأخلاق في سورة البقرة ( دراسة وتحلیل )
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This Research on (Ayat of Advice and Guidance of Morals
Included in Sorat Al-Baqara) is a study for the virtual of Ayat
dealing with advice and guidance.
The importance of this research title comes from the study of
the Holy Quran from one side and the importance of advice and
guidance from the other side, besides, we are truly in need for
such study in our life.

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