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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 06 2024
Journal Name
مجلة التربية الاساسية
شعرية الخطاب الروائي في رواية (النوم في حقل الكرز)
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إن أهم مايميز النص الأدبي شعراً كان أم نثراً نسيجه اللغوي الجمالي الذي يعبر عن التجارب الحياتية والمشاعر الوجدانية وترجمة ما يجول في الخاطر من أفكار واحاسيس الى صور انفعالية تؤثر في المتلقي. . يحاول هذا البحث الخوض في شعرية الخطاب الروائي في رواية ( النوم في حقل الكرز ) للكاتب العراقي ( أزهر جرجيز ) وهي واحدة من أهم الروايات الحائزة للجائز العالمية ( البوكر ) ودراسة الصورة الشعرية بانماطها المتنوعة التشبيهية وال

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Social Manifestation in India in the Islamic period
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The Social life contain an important side from the inherited Civilization to any
nation, is distinguished by activity and zeal. The old Indian is characterized with
closed and solidify socilal systems. This state had its influences on the activities of the
social movment. It astonished the conquered mushins – Arab to the India from the end
of the first centuny A.H we tried to change it by good works and made them become
aware, so this made radical active in the social India in Islamic period which is form
humanbeing nobilitie and their active deal in the society.

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 26 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Serum Zinc and Copper Changes in Male Infertility
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Objective: The aim of this study to detect the correlation between trace elements such as zinc, copper and
spermatogenesis, sperm viability and motility.
Methodology: Serum and semen samples were collected from one hundred twenty patients with age ranged (20-
50 years) attending the high institute for Embryo Research and Infertility Treatment/ Baghdad University, in
addition to thirty fertile males their age comparable to that of patients. The period of this study was from June
2004 until the end of October 2004.
Results: The result of routine seminal fluid analysis of all infertile males was divided according to WHO, (1999) limit
into four groups: Asthenospermia(A), Asthenoteratospermia(AT), Oligoasthenoteratospermi

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 04 2023
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
(التعليم في ايران في سنوات الثورة الدستورية 1905-1911م)
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The Constitutional Revolution is an important event in the modern history of Iran. It led to major changes in the political system and the education system. In addition  to it, laws were enacted that contributed to increasing the number of students who were unable to learn because of their deteriorating economic situation. The revolution also contributed to opening the way for girls to enter the country.  Schools after that was forbidden due to the opposition of the clergy, as the enemy of female education is contrary to Sharia, and different classes appeared in society calling for the fight against ignorance, the development of learning, the education of girls, and the establishment of modern schools for their education

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of Bifidobacterium Probiotic in the Treatment of Giardiasis Infection in Mice
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Metronidazole therapy is recommended in the treatment of giardiasis,athough some clinical reports mention the resistance to this drug from many pathogens. Many studies were applied to show the effect of probiotic to prevent or to heal diseases of gastrointestine, but only few is known about probiotic activity against infections of protozoa. This study aims to evaluate the efficiency of Bifidobacterium against infection with Giardia lamblia   in experimental mice. It was found that daily application of viable Bifidobacterium cells with a single dose (0.1ml∕mice∕day) significantly reduced the shedding of Giardia lamblia parasite cysts in feces, and infection completely disappeared at the da

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 15 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Commercial Job in Abu Tayara Street in the Municipality of Al- Dora
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The commercial job is one of the most important businesses in the cities as there is no city can exist without commercial markets to offer service to its inhabitants. This study aims to distribute the commercial function in Abu Tayara Street located in the municipality of Al-Dora by highlighting the size of such businesses in this street. It focuses on analyzing the change that has occurred due to the usages of the commercial land not only in the residential areas, but also in various aspects associated with the growth of the population in the city. Both expansion and development of the economic and social aspects in the area have increased the demand for commercial services. So, the research focuses on the aspects of functional speciali

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 30 2006
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Grammarians’ opinions on stopping and tilting in Al-Kanz by Al-Wasiti
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Praise be to God, and may blessings and peace be upon our master and Prophet Muhammad and those who follow him, and may God be pleased with him

Taha is my guardian and whoever follows their path until the Day of Judgment. And after... The book (The Treasure in the Ten Recitations), written by Abu Muhammad Abdullah bin Abd al-Wasiti, who died in the year 710 AH, is considered one of the important books in recitations: because it included the universal custom that it contained in the books Al-Taysir by Al-Dani and Al-Irshad by Al-Falanisi, as the first of them was specialized.

Satisfy the second with the ten readings

May God bless my time, through His grace and generosity, to achieve this treasure and to publish it

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 04 2016
Journal Name
مجلة التراث العلمي العربي
نهر الخوصر في نينوى في ضوء تقانة التحسس النائي
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الخلاصة إن لنهر الخوصر دور اساسي في التاريخ الحضاري لمدينة نينوى الاثرية فأن البحث حول مجرى هذا النهر وتحليل الوضع الجيومورفولوجي السابق له وعلاقته مع الوضع السياسي والاقتصادي السابق للمدينة الاثرية، بالأعتماد على تقنية التحسس النائي وتفسير الصور الجوية، لسهولة توفرها ولتكاملها الهندسي واستعمالاتها المتعددة وتكلفتها القليلة مقارنة مع التقنيات الاخرى، سهل الوصول إلى ان مجرى نهرالخوصر الحالي داخل مدينة

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2019
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Fairness in the ancestral quarrel at the meeting of subordinate and representative metaphors
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Having signed my eyes on the manuscript labeled (equity in the ancestral quarrel at the meeting of subordinate and representative metaphors) I was impressed by the process of achieving it; That manuscript came to light; to be seen by specialists in Arabic rhetoric and students of science, and supplement the library of rhetoric one of the sources ..

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 31 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
THE SUSTANABLE MARKETING IMMUNITY OF TOURIST OF BUSINESS IN LIGHT OF THE PANDEMIC-CORONA (COVID-19) AN APPLIED RESEARCH IN TRAVEL AND TOURISM COMPANIES IN BAGHDAD: THE SUSTANABLE MARKETING IMMUNITY OF TOURIST OF BUSINESS IN LIGHT OF THE PANDEMIC-CORONA (COVID-19) AN APPLIED RESEARCH IN TRAVEL AND TOURISM COMPANIES IN BAGHDAD
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The research aims to how to deal with certain situation to ensure the continuous competitive excellence of business market under the situation of covid-19, especially how to deal with major challenges, identifying the capabilities of tourism industry, investigating the ability of tourism agencies to resist the dynamic change of both internal as well as external environment to ensure their sustainability.

The important here as the paper notice, is how to be efficient and trying to find solutions in order to grow and survive through choosing certain strategies that aligned the critical issues.

Thus to achieve this level, many scenarios planed that could adopt in case of such pande

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