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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 13 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
نهر نهر الخوصر في نينوى في ضوء تقانة التحسس النائي
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The river "Al Khawser" has a significant role in the history of civilization of Nineveh city in north of Iraq that makes studying river channel and previous geomorphological analysis with its relation to the political and economical in the city in the ancient history depending on remote sensing technology with aerial imagery interpretation because it is easily available, multiple use, engineered integration, and low cost compared to other technology, this paper discovered that the current channel of river "Al Khawaser" is not the real old path

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 12 2021
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
أثر التصوير العربي والصيني في فن التصوير الإيلخاني في إيران
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     The manuscript depictions of the Ilkhanate era in Iran reflect the cultural and artistic dialogue approach that prevailed in that period ,when a movement of openness to literature from different sources occurred, which led to the emergence of new features

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Tue Nov 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Environmental awareness in the curriculum and its role in sustainable environmental planning
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                The goal of current research to the definition of environmental awareness in the curriculum and its role in sustainable environmental planning, was the research community official regular educational schools (kindergarten, primary, secondary) for the province of Baghdad - Iraq, the sample consisted search of (100) teacher and a teacher, and what research was descriptive analytical, researchers have selected the right tool for the research procedures (closed) questionnaire, distributed to the research sample, has been used by researchers appropriate statistical methods for procedures including: the weighted average extraction unit paragraph,

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The Holy Totem in Qur’an, a study in the light of sociolinguistics
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The sacred totem is one of the social phenomena that occupied the ideas of researchers, and took up a wide area of ​​their research, and it is one of those phenomena that emerged from one of the translations of the Tabu; Who took a psychological and anthropological analysis   Because it is one of the social practices, and the main focus of it is the human group and its source is religion. Therefore, this research came with demands, the first of which is to give a semantic concept of the Tommy sanctuary, and then the analytical aspect by standing on the sacred things in the Qur’anic text that God Almighty sanctified, and the third requirement is to examine what people have sanctified, as an analysis of the verses that have

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 09 2025
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Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The gender implications of Facebook pages and their role in prioritizing women issues
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Gender has considered and become a new trend in women's studies, as it reflects the behaviors, roles and attitudes imposed by society on its members in accordance with their biological nature,with focusing on gender rather than on concentration on women, which is closely linked to the vision that concentrates on women's problems which are not primarily according to their biological differences But rather to a greater extent to social, cultural, historical and religious barriers and Obstacles.
Therefore, the qualitative division due to the concept of "gender" is not a rigid biological division, but is relied on the broad general context through which the social division of work is done. Thus, content in the pages of Facebook with high-

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Use of Discourse Markers by Iraqi Secondary Schools Pupils
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This research aims at investigating pupils’ ability in using discourse markers which are identified in the English textbooks of secondary schools. Four texts are chosen from third intermediate class. The four texts are short stories of different topics.                                                  

        This research hypothesizes that there are no statistical significant differences among Iraqi intermediate pupils’ ability in using textual

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 31 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Role of the executive in federal experiences: a study of selected models
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Receipt date:06/23/2020 accepted date:7/15/2020 Publication date:12/31/2021

Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

The executive authority differs from one country to another, as it differs from a federal state to another according to the nature of the applied political systems, so this research focused on federal states according to their political systems, then going into the details of the executive authority and its role In the federal states by referring to the four federal experiments

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 11 2017
Journal Name
Al-academy
Employing American Cinema Technology In Establishing Globalization In Film
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It boils down search is marked by (employing technology in the establishment of globalization in the Film Art), and walk parallel plan between the technical and artistic movements and the impact of globalization on the final performed in the film Film of innovations and technology and rapid capital that provided the filmmakers and Kartalatha which focused entirely in the embodiment of the idea and published in the service around the world. And distributes research on four chapters first chapter dealt with the methodological framework of the research, which included research problem marked by the following question: (What are the modalities to employ technology in the establishment of globalization in the Film Art?) And the importance of

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 16 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The Role of Islam in Developing Some Basic Concepts in Town Planning
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The arise of Islam as a multidimensional changing phenomenon with its own revolutionary and comprehensive character was inherent with a lot of alterations in social aspects , and this is explicit particularly in the scope of urban life and town planning . Essentially, Islamic style of life has its own urban identity. The urbanization process in Islam has been developed across two integrated sides, the first one concerned on ideational and theoretical aspects , while the other associated with practice .Many urban centers emerged during the Islamic era since the erection of Basrah , the first Islamic town in the middle of the 7th. centaury. Some contemporary urban concepts , both environmental and social could be noticed in Islamic

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 20 2023
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
أثر الديستوبيا في تشكيل الزمن الروائي في الرواية النسائية العراقية
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The Idea of our tagged research (The Impact of Dystopia In the
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and In order to prove the Idea of our research, our choice focused on
the fictional production of a group of Iraqi women novelists that was
published In the time period (2003 AD-2020 AD) Through this theme,
we monitored how the temporal paradoxes operate from anticipation
and retrieval In the fragmentation of the narrative time, whichh in turn
presented a picture of the Iraqi reality In which the human Image
crumbled and its values were shattered and fragmented.

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