Grey system theory is a multidisciplinary scientific approach, which deals with systems that have partially unknown information (small sample and uncertain information). Grey modeling as an important component of such theory gives successful results with limited amount of data. Grey Models are divided into two types; univariate and multivariate grey models. The univariate grey model with one order derivative equation GM (1,1) is the base stone of the theory, it is considered the time series prediction model but it doesn’t take the relative factors in account. The traditional multivariate grey models GM(1,M) takes those factor in account but it has a complex structure and some defects in " modeling mechanism", "parameter estimation "and "model structure", So that traditional GM(1,M) submitted to many trials of optimizations to getting rid this defects. This research shows the characteristics of the traditional GM(1,M), the problems it suffer from, the method of getting rid of such problems and presents two optimized multivariable grey model of one order derivative equation. the first one is called the Optimized Grey Model abbreviated as OGM(1, M) by adding the linear correction term h1(M-1)and the grey action quantity term (h2) to the traditional model GM(1,M) the latter is called Optimized Background value Grey Model OBGM(1,M) by optimizing the Background value of the last model OGM(1,M). We use two A realistic data represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022) to compare the two optimized models with the traditional represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022)). we use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the determination coefficient R2. To compare the two optimized model with traditional one. The results show that the two optimized have less values than the those of the traditional model GM(I,M), and that verify the correctness of defects analysis of GM(1,M).
Metasurface polarizers are essential optical components in modern integrated optics and play a vital role in many optical applications including Quantum Key Distribution systems in quantum cryptography. However, inverse design of metasurface polarizers with high efficiency depends on the proper prediction of structural dimensions based on required optical response. Deep learning neural networks can efficiently help in the inverse design process, minimizing both time and simulation resources requirements, while better results can be achieved compared to traditional optimization methods. Hereby, utilizing the COMSOL Multiphysics Surrogate model and deep neural networks to design a metasurface grating structure with high extinction rat
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In this work, the mass attenuation coefficient, effective atomic number and half value layer parameters were calculated for silicate (SiO2) mixed with various levels of lead oxide and iron oxide as reinforced materials. SiO2 was used with different concentrations of PbO and Fe2O3 (25, 50 and 75 weight %). The glass system was prepared by the melt-quenching method. The attenuation parameters were calculated at photon energies varying from 1keV to 100MeV using the XCOM program (version 3.1). In addition, the mass attenuation coefficient and half value layer parameters for selected glass samples were experimentally determined at photon energies 0.662 and 1.28 MeV emitted from radioactive sources 137Cs and 22Na respe
... Show MoreCuring of concrete is the maintenance of a satisfactory moisture content and temperature for a
period of time immediately following placing so the desired properties are developed. Accelerated
curing is advantages where early strength gain in concrete is important. The expose of concrete
specimens to the accelerated curing conditions which permit the specimens to develop a significant
portion of their ultimate strength within a period of time (1-2 days), depends on the method of the
curing cycle.Three accelerated curing test methods are adopted in this study. These are warm water,
autogenous and proposed test methods. The results of this study has shown good correlation
between the accelerated strength especially for
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يتكون الانحدار المقسم من عدة أقسام تفصل بينها نقاط انتماء مختلفة، فتظهر حالة عدم التجانس الناشئة من عملية فصل الأقسام ضمن عينة البحث. ويهتم هذا البحث في تقدير موقع نقطة التغيير بين الأقسام وتقدير معلمات الأنموذج، واقتراح طريقة تقدير حصينة ومقارنتها مع بعض الطرائق المستعملة في الانحدار الخطي المقسم. وقد تم استعمال أحد الطرائق التقليدية (طريقة Muggeo) لإيجاد مقدرات الإمكان الأعظم بالأسلوب الت
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The problem of frequency estimation of a single sinusoid observed in colored noise is addressed. Our estimator is based on the operation of the sinusoidal digital phase-locked loop (SDPLL) which carries the frequency information in its phase error after the noisy sinusoid has been acquired by the SDPLL. We show by computer simulations that this frequency estimator beats the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) on the frequency error variance for moderate and high SNRs when the colored noise has a general low-pass filtered (LPF) characteristic, thereby outperforming, in terms of frequency error variance, several existing techniques some of which are, in addition, computationally demanding. Moreover, the present approach generalizes on existing work tha
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Abstract
The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he
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Estimation stage is one of most important in process of selecting and identification for fit model, this model gives a best results if the good methods of estimation are depended on, one of those methods is Bayes method for estimation the parameters, it puts an assumption that parameter have a distribution.
This paper studies the robustness of estimators of empirical Bayes to know the properties of those estimators.
This research aims to study the methods of reduction of dimensions that overcome the problem curse of dimensionality when traditional methods fail to provide a good estimation of the parameters So this problem must be dealt with directly . Two methods were used to solve the problem of high dimensional data, The first method is the non-classical method Slice inverse regression ( SIR ) method and the proposed weight standard Sir (WSIR) method and principal components (PCA) which is the general method used in reducing dimensions, (SIR ) and (PCA) is based on the work of linear combinations of a subset of the original explanatory variables, which may suffer from the problem of heterogeneity and the problem of linear
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In the current research, multiple mixing ratios of gamma -transitions of the energy levels 60𝑁𝑑 142−150 isotopes populated in 𝑁𝑑(𝑛, 𝑛 ˊ 60 142−150 ) 60𝑁𝑑 142−150 interaction are calculated using the constant statistical tensor (CST) method. The results obtained are, in general, in good agreement or consistent, within the experimental error, with the results published in the previously researches. Existing discrepancies result from inaccuracies in the experimental results of previous works. The current results confirm the validity of the constant statistical tenser method of calculating the values of mixing ratios and its predictability of errors in experimental results
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