Grey system theory is a multidisciplinary scientific approach, which deals with systems that have partially unknown information (small sample and uncertain information). Grey modeling as an important component of such theory gives successful results with limited amount of data. Grey Models are divided into two types; univariate and multivariate grey models. The univariate grey model with one order derivative equation GM (1,1) is the base stone of the theory, it is considered the time series prediction model but it doesn’t take the relative factors in account. The traditional multivariate grey models GM(1,M) takes those factor in account but it has a complex structure and some defects in " modeling mechanism", "parameter estimation "and "model structure", So that traditional GM(1,M) submitted to many trials of optimizations to getting rid this defects. This research shows the characteristics of the traditional GM(1,M), the problems it suffer from, the method of getting rid of such problems and presents two optimized multivariable grey model of one order derivative equation. the first one is called the Optimized Grey Model abbreviated as OGM(1, M) by adding the linear correction term h1(M-1)and the grey action quantity term (h2) to the traditional model GM(1,M) the latter is called Optimized Background value Grey Model OBGM(1,M) by optimizing the Background value of the last model OGM(1,M). We use two A realistic data represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022) to compare the two optimized models with the traditional represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022)). we use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the determination coefficient R2. To compare the two optimized model with traditional one. The results show that the two optimized have less values than the those of the traditional model GM(I,M), and that verify the correctness of defects analysis of GM(1,M).
Abstract
We produced a study in Estimation for Reliability of the Exponential distribution based on the Bayesian approach. These estimates are derived using Bayesian approaches. In the Bayesian approach, the parameter of the Exponential distribution is assumed to be random variable .we derived bayes estimators of reliability under four types when the prior distribution for the scale parameter of the Exponential distribution is: Inverse Chi-squar
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This study applies a discourse analysis framework to explore the portrayal of women in Maysloon Hadi’s novel (The Black Eyes) (2011), using Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) and Norman Fairclough’s tri-dimensional model (1989) as the analytical foundation. It investigates the roles and challenges women face in the novel. While there is growing interest in the portrayal of women in literature, Iraqi literature—especially from the perspective of Iraqi women writers remains underexplored. Hadi’s *The Black Eyes* provides a unique case to examine this intersection. Despite the novel’s rich narrative, which offers insight into Iraqi women’s lives, there is a lack of comprehensive CDA to understand how its language constructs
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In order to promote sustainable steel-concrete composite structures, special shear connectors that can facilitate deconstruction are needed. A lockbolt demountable shear connector (LB-DSC), including a grout-filled steel tube embedded in the concrete slab and fastened to a geometrically compatible partial-thread bolt, which is bolted on the steel section's top flange of a composite beam, was proposed. The main drawback of previous similar demountable bolts is the sudden slip of the bolt inside its hole. This bolt has a locked conical seat lug that is secured inside a predrilled compatible counter-sunk hole in the steel section's flange to provide a non-slip bolt-flange connection. Deconstruction is achieved by demounting the tube from the t
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Abstract
In this research provide theoretical aspects of one of the most important statistical distributions which it is Lomax, which has many applications in several areas, set of estimation methods was used(MLE,LSE,GWPM) and compare with (RRE) estimation method ,in order to find out best estimation method set of simulation experiment (36) with many replications in order to get mean square error and used it to make compare , simulation experiment contrast with (estimation method, sample size ,value of location and shape parameter) results show that estimation method effected by simulation experiment factors and ability of using other estimation methods such as(Shrinkage, jackknif
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The ground state proton, neutron and matter densities and
corresponding root mean square radii of unstable proton-rich 17Ne
and 27P exotic nuclei are studied via the framework of the twofrequency
shell model. The single particle harmonic oscillator wave
functions are used in this model with two different oscillator size
parameters core b and halo , b the former for the core (inner) orbits
whereas the latter for the halo (outer) orbits. Shell model calculations
for core nucleons and for outer (halo) nucleons in exotic nuclei are
performed individually via the computer code OXBASH. Halo
structure of 17Ne and 27P nuclei is confirmed. It is found that the
structure of 17Ne and 27P nuclei have 2
5 / 2 (1d ) an
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This research mainly aims to analyze local development strategy in Baghdad Governance, build the Strategic Model based on the study area's spatial interaction, and achieve the Trinity of Excellence based on the global model of excellence.
This research applied SWOT strategic analysis for the strengths and weaknesses of the internal environment and opportunities and threats of the external environment for the provincial council. In conclusion, the research specifies appropriate alternatives and choosing the best in line with the reality of the Baghdad Provincial Council. Also, the strategic goals in the national plan and the spatial interaction of the development goals,
... Show MoreA mathematical model has been formulated to predict the influence of high outdoor air temperature on the performance of small scale air - conditioning system using R22 and alternative refrigerants R290, R407C, R410A. All refrigerants were investigated in the cooling mode operation. The mathematical model results have been validated with experimental data extracted from split type air conditioner of 2 TR capacity. This entailed the construction of an experimental test rig which consists of four main parts. They are, the refrigeration system, psychrometric test facility, measuring instrumentation, and auxiliary systems. The conditioned air was maintained at 25 0C dry bulb and 19 0C wet bulb for all tests. The outdoor ambient air temperatur
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This research a study model of linear regression problem of autocorrelation of random error is spread when a normal distribution as used in linear regression analysis for relationship between variables and through this relationship can predict the value of a variable with the values of other variables, and was comparing methods (method of least squares, method of the average un-weighted, Thiel method and Laplace method) using the mean square error (MSE) boxes and simulation and the study included fore sizes of samples (15, 30, 60, 100). The results showed that the least-squares method is best, applying the fore methods of buckwheat production data and the cultivated area of the provinces of Iraq for years (2010), (2011), (2012),
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As one type of resistance furnace, the electrical tube furnace (ETF) typically experiences input noise, measurement noise, system uncertainties, unmodeled dynamics and external disturbances, which significantly degrade its temperature control performance. To provide precise, and robust temperature tracking performance for the ETF, a robust composite control (RCC) method is proposed in this paper. The overall RCC method consists of four elements: First, the mathematical model of the ETF system is deduced, then a state feedback control (SFC) is constructed. Third, a novel disturbance observer (DO) is designed to estimate the lumped disturbance with one observer parameter. Moreover, the stability of the closed loop system including controller
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