Grey system theory is a multidisciplinary scientific approach, which deals with systems that have partially unknown information (small sample and uncertain information). Grey modeling as an important component of such theory gives successful results with limited amount of data. Grey Models are divided into two types; univariate and multivariate grey models. The univariate grey model with one order derivative equation GM (1,1) is the base stone of the theory, it is considered the time series prediction model but it doesn’t take the relative factors in account. The traditional multivariate grey models GM(1,M) takes those factor in account but it has a complex structure and some defects in " modeling mechanism", "parameter estimation "and "model structure", So that traditional GM(1,M) submitted to many trials of optimizations to getting rid this defects. This research shows the characteristics of the traditional GM(1,M), the problems it suffer from, the method of getting rid of such problems and presents two optimized multivariable grey model of one order derivative equation. the first one is called the Optimized Grey Model abbreviated as OGM(1, M) by adding the linear correction term h1(M-1)and the grey action quantity term (h2) to the traditional model GM(1,M) the latter is called Optimized Background value Grey Model OBGM(1,M) by optimizing the Background value of the last model OGM(1,M). We use two A realistic data represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022) to compare the two optimized models with the traditional represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022)). we use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the determination coefficient R2. To compare the two optimized model with traditional one. The results show that the two optimized have less values than the those of the traditional model GM(I,M), and that verify the correctness of defects analysis of GM(1,M).
Abstract
The research aims to determine the nature of the Iraqi market in terms of banking financial stability and the extent impact of the operational efficiency on it, Accordingly, chosen 15 relational banks were chosen as an intentional sample that could represent the Iraqi banking system for the period 2010-2020. The operational efficiency variable was measured according to the data envelope model, and banking financial stability used CAMELS model which includes five indicators (capital adequacy, asset quality, management quality, profitability, and liquidity), so for testing the research hypotheses used the random regression model by adopting the S
... Show MoreThe research utilizes data produced by the Local Urban Management Directorate in Najaf and the imagery data from the Landsat 9 satellite, after being processed by the GIS tool. The research follows a descriptive and analytical approach; we integrated the Markov chain analysis and the cellular automation approach to predict transformations in city structure as a result of changes in land utilization. The research also aims to identify approaches to detect post-classification transformations in order to determine changes in land utilization. To predict the future land utilization in the city of Kufa, and to evaluate data accuracy, we used the Kappa Indicator to determine the potential applicability of the probability matrix that resulted from
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When employing shorter (sub picosecond) laser pulses, in ablation kinetics the features appear which can no longer be described in the context of the conventional thermal model. Meanwhile, the ablation of materials with the aid of ultra-short (sub picosecond) laser pulses is applied for micromechanical processing. Physical mechanisms and theoretical models of laser ablation are discussed. Typical associated phenomena are qualitatively regarded and methods for studying them quantitatively are considered. Calculated results relevant to ablation kinetics for a number of substances are presented and compared with experimental data. Ultra-short laser ablation with two-temperature model was quantitatively investigated. A two-temperature model
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Chaotic features of nuclear energy spectrum in 68Ge nucleus are investigated by nuclear shell model. The energies are calculated through doing shell model calculations employing the OXBASH computer code with effective interaction of F5PVH. The 68Ge nucleus is supposed to have an inert core of 56Ni with 12 nucleons (4 protons and 8 neutrons) move in the f5p-model space ( and ). The nuclear level density of considered classes of states is seen to have a Gaussian form, which is in accord with the prediction of other theoretical studies. The statistical fluctuations of the energy spectrum (the level spacing P(s) and the Dyson-Mehta (or statistics) are well described by the Gaussian orthogonal ens
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The researcher attempts to examine Barman model in acquiring the historical concepts among fourth-grade students at literary classrooms. To this end, the researcher held the null hypothesis, there is no significant difference between the experimental groups who was taught based on Barman model and the control group that taught based on the traditional method in acquiring the historical concepts on the post-test. To testify the effectiveness of Barman model, the researcher administered a questionnaire included (60) items on bunch of female-students who were selected from al-khamaeal preparatory school in al-hurriyah district in Baghdad. The author utilized different statistical tools to analyze the collected data. &
... Show MoreThe purpose of this paper is to gain a good understanding about wake region behind the car body due to the aerodynamic effect when the air flows over the road vehicle during its movement. The main goal of this study is to discuss the effect of the geometry on the wake region and the aerodynamic drag coefficient. Results will be achieved by using two different shapes, which are the fastback and the notchback. The study will be implemented by the Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) by using STAR-CCM+® software for the simulation. This study investigates the steady turbulent flow using k-epsilon turbulence model. The results obtained from the simulation show that the region of the air separation behind the vehicle
... Show MoreArtificial pancreas is simulated to handle Type I diabetic patients under intensive care by automatically controlling the insulin infusion rate. A Backstepping technique is used to apply the effect of PID controller to blood glucose level since there is no direct relation between insulin infusion (the manipulated variable) and glucose level in Bergman’s system model subjected to an oral glucose tolerance test by applying a meal translated into a disturbance. Backstepping technique is usually recommended to stabilize and control the states of Bergman's class of nonlinear systems. The results showed a very satisfactory behavior of glucose deviation to a sudden rise represented by the meal that increase the blood glucose
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A modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with a Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is proposed and studied. The purpose is to examine the effects of fear and quadratic fixed effort harvesting on the system's dynamic behavior. The model's qualitative properties, such as local equilibria stability, permanence, and global stability, are examined. The analysis of local bifurcation has been studied. It is discovered that the system experiences a saddle-node bifurcation at the survival equilibrium point whereas a transcritical bifurcation occurs at the boundary equilibrium point. Additionally established are the prerequisites for Hopf bifurcation existence. Finally, using MATLAB, a numerical investigation is conducted to verify the va
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The dependable and efficient identification of Qin seal script characters is pivotal in the discovery, preservation, and inheritance of the distinctive cultural values embodied by these artifacts. This paper uses image histograms of oriented gradients (HOG) features and an SVM model to discuss a character recognition model for identifying partial and blurred Qin seal script characters. The model achieves accurate recognition on a small, imbalanced dataset. Firstly, a dataset of Qin seal script image samples is established, and Gaussian filtering is employed to remove image noise. Subsequently, the gamma transformation algorithm adjusts the image brightness and enhances the contrast between font structures and image backgrounds. After a s
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This paper deals with a method called Statistical Energy Analysis that can be applied to the mechanical and acoustical systems like buildings, bridges and aircrafts …etc. S.E.A as a tool can be applied to the resonant systems in the circumstances of high frequency or/and complex structure». The parameters of S.E.A such as coupling loss factor, internal loss factor, modal density and input power are clarified in this work ; coupled plate sub-systems and explanations are presented for these parameters. The developed system is assumed to be resonant, conservative, linear and there is an equipartition of energy between all the resonant modes within a given frequency band in a given sub-system. The aim of th
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