يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The current study aims to identify the feeling of job alienation and organizational commitment among free lecturers in secondary schools, as well as to identify the significance of the differences in the feeling of job alienation according to the gender and the significance of the differences in organizational commitment according to the gender. It also aims to identify the correlation between the feeling of job alienation and organizational commitment. To achieve the objectives of the research, the researcher developed two scales: one consisted of (24) items to measure the vacancy in job alienation and the other consisted of (24) items to measure the organizational commitment. The two tools were applied to a sample of (200) male and fem
... Show More A prominent figure such as Yahya bin Khaldoun and a scholar of the moroccan countries in the medieval era, and had a special place in the history of the country and the state of Bani Zayan, and the positions he occupied in it and left his scientific, literary and historical traces, leaving him an imprint in the course of history and its events, and in this study
I dealt with the research: his personal life : his name and lineage, then his upbringing and his family.
The aim of the study is to know this character in the details of his personal and scientific life, according to the historical descriptive research method, including description and presentation of events, and linking them in a
... Show MoreIn latest decades, genetic methods have developed into a potent tool in a number of life-attaching applications. In research looking at demographic genetic diversity, QTL detection, marker-assisted selection, and food traceability, DNA-based technologies like PCR are being employed more and more. These approaches call for extraction procedures that provide efficient nucleic acid extraction and the elimination of PCR inhibitors. The first and most important stage in molecular biology is the extraction of DNA from cells. For a molecular scientist, the high quality and integrity of the isolated DNA as well as the extraction method's ease of use and affordability are crucial factors. The present study was designed to establish a simple, fast
... Show MorePituitary adenomas are the anterior pituitary tumors. Patients with an Aryl Hydrocarbon Receptor-Interacting Protein (AIP) mutation (AIP- mut) tend to have more aggressive tumors occurring at a younger age. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in many studies have been related to metabolic comorbidities in the general population. Study aims investigated the role of AIP gene SNPs with susceptibility to acromegaly pituitary- adenoma, with levels of LH, FSH, TSH, Testosterone, IGF1,GH, FT4 , Prolactin hormones and blood sugar levels. The study was conducted on a group of acromegaly patients, including 50 patients) both Genders( with hyperplasia of the ends, and apparently healthy control group. Genotyping of
... Show MoreThis research aims to show the sight at the importance of the private banking sector in Iraq and its role in financing of the investment projects , of the ability of Central Bank's decision to increase the minimum limit of capital for private banks to provide support to the economic activity and the development in Iraq. In addition to illustrate the importance of the capital increase, with a, and taking into notice the most important determinants that can stand in front of these banks in the beginning of the decision implementation, which in turn can lead to the most important proceedings that can contribute in the support of banks to implementation the decision. Also, the research has highlighted the most important ways through wh
... Show MoreThe present paper is devoted to studying the imitation of some Quran phrases and words in the tale of "The Leprous Girl". The paper aims at identifying the common ground between the tale and some great stories related in the verses of the holy Quran, and comparing the original work with the present translation. First, we translated the tale from Russian into Arabic so as to be tackled in study, and then an identification of the commonalities between this tale and the Quran wording is made. It was found that texting is clear in the original text of the tale, hence the need for this paper. By studying the texts and phrases employed by the writer, we observe that the text is influenced by the Quranic stories whose effects have been reflecte
... Show MoreThe present paper focuses on studying a rhetorical form often used in Spanish linguistic discourse .It also examines the study two sides (theoretical and practical), the concept of metaphor, the most important modern school that deals with this issue, the development of this technique and its relationship with other intellectual ideologies, and the role metaphor plays in interpreting the meaning of the linguistic discourse especially in conveying political message. The study allows the formulation and the creation of a conceptual picture for the purposes of metaphor in the linguistic discourse used in Spanish press. It investigates discursive models from the Spanish press,
... Show Moreيهدف البحث إلى تقييم الكفاءة الوظيفية لمؤسسات التعليم الأهلي في أداء وظيفتها بمستوى عالٍ لتشبع حاجة سكان المدينة الذين فضّلوا التعليم الأهلي على التعليم داخل المؤسسات الحكومية مما أدى إلى انتشارها، وصولا إلى أهم الآثار المترتبة على ذلك الانتشار إذ نافست فيه مؤسسات التعليم الحكومي، بل وتنافست المؤسسات الأهلية فيما بينها لتقديم أفضل خدمة تعليمية للصراع من أجل البقاء، وتهدف أيضا إلى إظهار الوجه السلبي ا
... Show MoreThe problem of multi assembly line balancing appears as one of the most prominent and complex type of problem. The research problem of this dissertation is concerned with choosing the suitable method that includes the nature of the processes of the multi assembly type of the sewing line at factory no. (7). The State Company for Leather Manufacturing. The sewing line currently suffers from idle times at work stations which resulted in low production levels that do not meet the production plans. The authors have devised a flexible simulation model which uses the uniform distribution to generate task time for each shoe type produced by the factory. The simulation of the multi assembly line was based on assigni
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