يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the histopathological response of dentinopulpal
response of human teeth to the Er: YAG laser cavity preparation in comparison with the conventional
class I cavity preparation. Thirty five sound human upper and lower first premolar teeth which were
needed to be extracted for orthodontic purposes were used in the study. Regarding to the method of
cavity preparation, the teeth were grouped into three groups; Group1; Control group which consists of
seven sound teeth without cavity preparation, Group2; Conventional cavity preparation group and group
3; Er: YAG laser cavity preparation group. Each of Group2 and3 consists of fourteen teeth that is
subdivided into: A. 7teeth that e
Drawbacks of Implementing Electronic Management in the Ministry of Education (A sample: Oman Educational Portal) from the Point of View of IT Staff. The study aimed at discovering the drawbacks of implementing electronic management in the Ministry of Education (a sample: Oman Educational Portal) from the point of view of IT staff, and that is by answering the following questions: - What are the main drawbacks (administrative, financial, technical and drawbacks related to human resources) that hinder implementing the electronic management in the Ministry of Education (a sample: Oman Educational Portal) from the point of view of IT staff? - Are there any statistical significance differences at the level (0.05) between study samples on the
... Show MoreThe present study is entitled “Problems of Translating Holy Qur’an Antonyms into German: An Analytical Study”. It discusses some of the problems of translating Holy Qur’an verses that contain words so opposite in meaning to another word. The main concern of the study stresses some of the errors in translating the oppositeness of certain words of Holy Qur’an from Arabic into other languages like German, a problem that can be traced back to the fact that such words may have two opposites in meaning, one is considered and the other is completely neglected.
The errors in translating al Qur’an Antonyms can be summarized for several reasons: literal translation, ignorance of the different view
... Show MoreThe effective application of the method of measuring and evaluating performance according to the Balanced Scorecard the need for an information system a comprehensive and integrated for internal and external environment, Which requires the need to develop accounting information system in general and cost management information systems to suit the particular requirements of the environment in terms of the development of modern methods of measurement to include the use of some methods that have proven effective in measuring and evaluating performance.
The research problem in need of management to develop methods of measuring and evaluating performance through the use of both financial measures and non
... Show MoreSome types of the fungus Aspergillus were isolated from some hospitals in the city of Baghdad (Imam Ali Hospital and Sadr General Hospital). The samples were taken by Transport media at a rate of three replicates of each place isolated from samples from different places within the hospital (waste, baths, the sick beds, corridors and room floors) for the purpose of isolating and diagnosing the fungus on the Czapeck Dox Agar media. It was noticed that the spread rate of fungus Aspergillus was 70% compared to other species that have emerged during the isolation process of the Sabouraud's Dextrose Agar media. The species A.niger (56.25%) was considered the most common type of fungus visible during the isolation process of the Imam Ali Hospit
... Show MoreThis research aims to knowledge of the scope of applying the international specification of which is regarded to occupational health and safety management system (OHSAS 18001) second edition for year 2007 by The AL-Mammon Factory / The General Company For Vegetable Oils Industry in order to diagnosis the gap between specification requirements and reality by using the checklist made based upon the items of the specification, after translating the English copy into Arabic. The results of the research and analysis that occupational health and safety management system in comparison to the specification requirements in all of its main items, which was (%22.26) applied and documented partly, this refer to the existence of great gap (%7
... Show MoreThe study aims to demonstrate the importance of instructional methods in teaching Arabic language as a second language or teaching the Arabic language to non-native speakers. The study is in line with the tremendous development in the field of knowledge, especially in the field of technology and communication, and the emergence of many electronic media in education in general and language teaching in particular. It employs an image in teaching vocabulary and presenting the experience of the Arabic Language Institute for Non-Speakers-King Abdul-Aziz University. The study follows the descriptive approach to solve the problem represented by the lack of interest in the educational methods when teaching Arabic as a second language. Accordingl
... Show MoreXanthomonas axonopodis pv glycines (Xag) is a pathogen that causes pustule disease in soybeans. Many
techniques for controlling this disease have been widely developed, one of which is the use of biological agents.
Bacillus sp. from the soybean phyllosphere is a biological agent that has the potential to suppress the
development of pustule disease. One of the biological control mechanisms is through biochemical induction
of plant resistance which includes the accumulation of phenols, salicylic acid compounds, and peroxidase
enzymes. Bacillus subtilis JB12 and Bacillus velezensis ST32 are two bacteria isolated from the soybean
phyllosphere which have previously been known to suppress Xag through an anti
The study has tackled three important variables on the strategic and organizational level, that are : (Administrative skill, strategic Entrepreneurship and organizational flexibility). Through the statistical analysis is, the research hers have sought to identify the relation among them. The study has been applied on a sample of (44) private banks in Iraq. A questionnaire, which has been designed according to a number of international standards, has been used. It's made of (29) items that cover the three variables to test their hypotheses. A number of statistical tools have been used A number of conclusion have been reached and recommendations have also been suggested.