يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
الانسحاب الاجتماعي بغض النظر عن العوامل المسببة له قابل للعلاج حيث وضحت البحوث العلمية إمكانية الحد منه باستخدام أساليب تعديل السلوك .
وهو نمط سلوكي شائع لدى معظم الفئات ان لم يكن كل فئات الاعاقة ،وينتج هذا النمط السلوكي الانسحاب الاجتماعي عن عوامل عدة فاذا الطفل يعاني من تلف في الجهاز العصبي المركزي فان هذا التلف قد يحول دون قيام الطفل بالنشاطات المطلوبة للعلاج. توضح البحوث العلمية ام
... Show MoreThe current research aimed to identify:
- Social perception among university students.
- Differences in social Perception according to the variables:
Gander` (male, female) b- theme (scientific, humanitarian(
- Moral judgments among university students.
- Differences in moral judgments according to two variables:
A-type (male, female) b- theme (scientific, humanitarian)
- Emotional tranquility among university students.
- Differences in emotional tranquility according to two variables:
A-type (male, female) b- theme (scientific, humanitarian)
- Contributio
The industrial development and raise the level of income that has emerged clearly in the middle of the last century in many rich and medium rich countries has great influence on the risen of the health care level. Which led to a significant increase in the reconstruction of people over 65 years and this in turn has produced markets for products and services through modifications to the existing products to meet their physical needs. The importance of research also has the universal design of a comprehensive actually so that it covers as much as possible from human physical & cultural activities. The importance of research locally is to concentrate on this subject who has not been taken into consideration so far to accommodate the eld
... Show Moreيرى الباحثون في علم النفس إن السنوات الأولى من حياة الطفل هي من أهم السنوات في تكوين شخصيته وتوجيهها وتنشئتها النشأة التي تبنى عليها أصولها من خلال مراحل النمو التالية. ( الطحان، 1987، ص 17)
إن من أهم أنواع السلوك التي يتعلمها الطفل في بداية السنة الأولى من حياته هي الاستجابات الاجتماعية للناس نتيجة تفاعله مع أمه وان هذه الاستجابات للام أو لمن ينوب عنها يتسع مجالها كل
... Show MoreThat the child in the early years of his life learns a lot of experiences that help him
grow properly, and if the availability of the child family atmosphere full of love and affection
and trust he was able to grow healthy growth and is in accordance with itself and with the
community in which they live, and stop method of the child in the expression of fear on the
nature of situation and on the theme of fear and the reaction of those around the child as well
as the vague positions that can not a child from its interpretation raises his fear, and its lead in
life are the kindergarten of the growing concerns him, causing his social concern, therefore,
targeted current research to identify patterns of parental care(mot
The aim of the present study is to identify the level of prosoical behavior of Baghdad University's students and to recognize the differences between male and female students. Moreover, it also aims to identify the level of openness to experience for these students. A random sample of (123) students has been selected; 77 males and 46 females. Two scales have been used in the study. The Prosocialness scale for adults by Caprara. Et al (2005) has been translated into the Arabic language and relies on four types of actions (Helping, Sharing, Taking care, and feeling Empathetic with others) and the other scale is the Openness to Experience Scale, which is one of the Big Five Inventory by John and Srivastava (1999). The main results showed a
... Show MorePurpose: The research seeks to develop the implications of intellectual human capital, and social capital in business organizations, and will be accomplished on three levels, the first level (the level of description) to identify, diagnose and display content philosophical Strategic Human Resource Management at the thought of modern administrative represented by human capital and Ras social capital. The second level (level of analysis) and the analysis of the extent of the impact of alignment between human capital, and social capital in the organizational strength of the organizations. The third level (Level predict) the formulation of a plan to strengthen the organizational strength in business organizations and to develop speci
... Show MoreThe current research seeks to achieve several objectives, including knowing the extent of the audit directorate of the Ministry of Construction, Housing and General Municipalities of the International Standard (ISO19011:2018) regarding determining the efficiency and evaluation of auditors and diagnosing the gap between requirements and application and knowing the reasons for not applying some of the items in the standard, starting from the problem, The field raised the following question (Does the audit directorate determine the efficiency and evaluation of auditors according to the standard ISO19011:2018?), and the importance of research lies in determining the return that can be achieved by the directorate through its application of stand
... Show MoreThe study population growth of the most important demographic phenomena upon which planners to meet changes in the size of the population increase is through knowledge of the requirements of population growth can be planned for the future. On this basis, Tuz District was chosen for the study of population growth, which set her period (1977-2012), and compared with the growth of the population of the province and the extent of the variation in population growth, according to the administrative units, has touched search numerical and proportional distribution of the population according to the administrative aspects of the judiciary, as well as environmental distribution.
The elimination of the study population growth dramatically
... Show MoreSource of energy and protein Field crops considered an important needed for human
beings Due of this fact increases should appear in the quantities of their production in order to
meet the needs of continuous increasing in the population of the glope year after year ;
otherwise, an increase in the gap between the amount of production and consumption will
occur .
This study aims to reveal the geographical distribution of the potato crop in the district
of Abu – Ghraib. For this purpose, a study conducted about the cultivated areas, production
and crop yields per Dunam for period of 7 years lasted from 2005-2011.
The study shows that potato is one of the most important field crops that are grown in
the Abu –