يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
شهد العصر الحالي سرعة فائقة في انتاج وسائل الاتصال لاسيما في حقل الاتصال الاليكتروني وتوضح ذلك عبر الاندماج بين ظاهرة الكم الهائل من المعلومات وتعدد الوسائل الاتصالية وذلك لتحقيق الهدف المنشود لبث الرسالة الاتصالية الا وهو التفاعل من اجل التأثير في الفرد ومن ثم المجتمع ككل , فيما اضحت العلاقات العامة احد العوامل المؤثرة في عملية التغيير الاجتماعي بما تستند اليه من ممارسات تضعها في اطار الوظائف المجتمعية ال
... Show MoreIn the spreading of the Internet, mobile smart devices, and interactive websites such as YouTube, the educational video becomes more widespread and deliberative among users. The reasons for its spread are the prevalence of technologies, cheap cost, and easy to use. However, these products often lack to the distinction in video production. By following videos of an educational channel on YouTube, some comments found to discuss the lack of the content presented to motivate the learners, which lead to reduce the viewers of the videos. Therefore, there is an important decision to find general standards for the design and production of educational videos. A list of standards has been drawn up to help those interested in producing educational
... Show MoreIn the spreading of the Internet, mobile smart devices, and interactive websites such as YouTube, the educational video becomes more widespread and deliberative among users. The reasons for its spread are the prevalence of technologies, cheap cost, and easy to use. However, these products often lack to the distinction in video production. By following videos of an educational channel on YouTube, some comments found to discuss the lack of the content presented to motivate the learners, which lead to reduce the viewers of the videos. Therefore, there is an important decision to find general standards for the design and production of educational videos. A list of standards has been drawn up to help those interested in producing educational
... Show Moreيعد موضوع الشباب- في الوقت الحاضر - من الموضوعات المهمة التي يهتم بها علم النفس والتربية والأجتماع والصحة . بل أن الدول المتقدمة تهتم بشبابها أيمانآ بأن تقدم الأمة لايقوم الاعلى الأمكانيات البشرية من الشباب .
ومما لاشك فيه أن دخول الشباب الى عالم المجتمع الجامعي يطرح عليه وبشدة مشكلة التصرف م
... Show MoreAdolescence important and sensitive stage in social terms, being a stage where learns teenager bear social responsibilities and composition of their ideas about family life, as well as it is the stage where the teenager looking to himself for an important place in the community to become independent socially people, so it highlights the role of Social Work to do better effort and I believe him in order to prepare for the adolescent stage of adolescence and help him overcome the problems so that makes it adapts to the society in which he lives
The research aims to determine the factors affecting the woman’s use of electronic marketing in social networking sites, and to know the extent of the sample’s use of social networking sites for electronic shopping purposes. The research tool used the questionnaire form that was designed in its final form after presenting it to the arbitrators and it included a set of questions and a five-Likert scale, and used the spss statistical program to perform the statistical operations that were laid out in tables showing the frequencies, percentages and percentages Salary, mean, standard deviation, and correlation using the Spearman correlation coefficient, the Ka2 square test, the F test, the Alpha Cronbach test, and arrived at Searching to
... Show MoreIn this paper we will explain ,how use Bayesian procedure in analysis multiple linear regression model with missing data in variables X's as the new method suggest , and explain some of missing Patterns under missing mechanism , missing complete at random MCAR and compare Bayesian estimator with complete case estimator by use simulation procedure .
This study aims to discuss the projects of poultry in Wasit province in 2013 and geographical distribution according to the type and contrast on the level of administrative units representing Districts and The reasons for this discrepancy, as well as knowledge of the factors affecting the distribution by the analysis and reasoning and description This study divided to the four themes, The first of the statement of nutritional importance and economic Poultry focused on the importance of various poultry products, The second one shows the relative position of the province of Wasit between the provinces of Iraq in poultry and production of eggs and meat farming projects, and then followed by the third one (theme) as it ensures the geographic
... Show MoreWith a great diversity in the curriculum contemporary monetary and visions, and development that hit the graphic design field, it has become imperative for the workers in the contemporary design research and investigation in accordance with the intellectual treatises and methods of modern criticism, because the work design requires the designer and recipient both know the mechanics of tibographic text analysis in a heavy world of texts and images varied vocabulary and graphics, and designer on before anyone else manages the process of analysis to know what you offer others of shipments visual often of oriented intended from behind, what is meant, in the midst of this world, the curriculum Alsemiae directly overlap with such diverse offer
... Show MoreIncreased attention to corporate governance with the increasing need for investors and other parties in the Iraqi market for securities of the information credible and confidence and greater transparency in the disclosure as well as the systems of governance lead to raise the value of the company and that by reducing the cost of capital and reduce the cost of financing, as well as that there are indications modern measurement can be adopted by the Iraqi market for securities for the purpose of evaluating the performance of listed companies and then raise their value.
The research problem is that there is no framework or structure of the legal and local rules for the application of corporate governance in Iraq obliges
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