يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
تشكل التغيرات الحاصلة في اسعار النفط تحديا" حقيقيا" لاستمرار عملية النمو في العراق, وامام الحكومة فرصة كبيرة لإيجاد حلول ناجعة لمشكلة تزايد عجز الموازنة العامة من خلال اللجوء الى اصدار ادوات الدين العام الداخلي والخارجي, وهذا يتطلب بناء استراتيجية لإقامة وتطوير سوق السندات الحكومية في العراق, لتتمكن الحكومة من خلاله توفير مصادر تمويل اضافية, تسهم في تمويل الانفاق الاستثماري الحكومي ودعم النمو ودعم
... Show MoreThe research aims to demonstrate the impact of the acceptable solvency of the National Insurance Company on the investment activity in it, as the research assumes the existence of a statistically significant relationship between the acceptable solvency variable and the investment variable, and the researcher took the National Insurance Company as a place to conduct the research, as it is the first insurance company Watania was established in the fifties of the last century, and it has a long history in the practice of investment activity, and the company’s financial statements for the period from (2010-2019) were relied on, and the annual reports issued by the company as well as records are tools for gathering information, and
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ABSTRACT:
The study aimed to identify the impact of the role of voluntary accounting disclosure in enhancing confidence in the informational content of financial reports. Correlation - Spearman to measure the degree of correlation, as well as the method of simple linear regression analysis, and the study reached several results, including: The level of enhancing the information content in the annual financial reports of the Palestinian banks listed on the Palestine Exchange under study reached the overall average (total) (94.1%), and also Voluntary Accounting Disclosure in Enhancing Confidence in the Informational Content of the List of Change in Ownership Equity of Listed
... Show Moreشهد العصر الحالي سرعة فائقة في انتاج وسائل الاتصال لاسيما في حقل الاتصال الاليكتروني وتوضح ذلك عبر الاندماج بين ظاهرة الكم الهائل من المعلومات وتعدد الوسائل الاتصالية وذلك لتحقيق الهدف المنشود لبث الرسالة الاتصالية الا وهو التفاعل من اجل التأثير في الفرد ومن ثم المجتمع ككل , فيما اضحت العلاقات العامة احد العوامل المؤثرة في عملية التغيير الاجتماعي بما تستند اليه من ممارسات تضعها في اطار الوظائف المجتمعية ال
... Show MoreThe research aims to determine the factors affecting the woman’s use of electronic marketing in social networking sites, and to know the extent of the sample’s use of social networking sites for electronic shopping purposes. The research tool used the questionnaire form that was designed in its final form after presenting it to the arbitrators and it included a set of questions and a five-Likert scale, and used the spss statistical program to perform the statistical operations that were laid out in tables showing the frequencies, percentages and percentages Salary, mean, standard deviation, and correlation using the Spearman correlation coefficient, the Ka2 square test, the F test, the Alpha Cronbach test, and arrived at Searching to
... Show MoreAdolescence important and sensitive stage in social terms, being a stage where learns teenager bear social responsibilities and composition of their ideas about family life, as well as it is the stage where the teenager looking to himself for an important place in the community to become independent socially people, so it highlights the role of Social Work to do better effort and I believe him in order to prepare for the adolescent stage of adolescence and help him overcome the problems so that makes it adapts to the society in which he lives
Most statistical research generally relies on the study of the behaviour of different phenomena during specific time periods and the use of the results of these studies in the development of appropriate recommendations and decision-making and for the purpose of statistical inference on the parameters of the statistical distribution of life times in The technical staff of most of the manufacturers in the research units of these companies deals with censored data, the main objective of the study of survival is the need to provide information that is the basis for decision making and must clarify the problem and then the goals and limitations of this study and that It may have different possibilities to perform the
... Show MoreThe banking sector has a significant impact on the economic growth of the country, and the importance of this sector must assess its financial performance from time to time, to measure the situation related to money for each bank and how to put the supervision of the efficiency of the full. The research aims at evaluating the financial performance according to the elements of the CAMELS model, which including capital adequacy, asset quality, management efficiency, profitability, liquidity and market risk sensitivity. The research included the study of Al-Mansour Investment Bank during the period from 2014 to 2018. The base capital ratio was used to total assets to measure capital adequacy The proportion of investments to total assets to mea
... Show MoreThe banking sector has a significant impact on the economic growth of the country, and the importance of this sector must assess its financial performance from time to time, to measure the situation related to money for each bank and how to put the supervision of the efficiency of the full. The research aims at evaluating the financial performance according to the elements of the CAMELS model, which including capital adequacy, asset quality, management efficiency, profitability, liquidity, and market risk sensitivity. The research included the study of Al-Mansour Investment Bank during the period from 2014 to 2018. The base capital ratio was used to total assets to measure capital adequacy The proportion of investments to total a
... Show MoreIn the spreading of the Internet, mobile smart devices, and interactive websites such as YouTube, the educational video becomes more widespread and deliberative among users. The reasons for its spread are the prevalence of technologies, cheap cost, and easy to use. However, these products often lack to the distinction in video production. By following videos of an educational channel on YouTube, some comments found to discuss the lack of the content presented to motivate the learners, which lead to reduce the viewers of the videos. Therefore, there is an important decision to find general standards for the design and production of educational videos. A list of standards has been drawn up to help those interested in producing educational
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