يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
In a world of fierce competition companies of different activities strive to strengthen their competitiveness in order to be able to deliver greater value to their customers and gain a distinct sites in competition with other companies in the market at the local and international levels. Every company seeks to focus on one or more of the competitive capabilities in order to turn it into an obvious advantage or a number of competitive advantages to contribute in improving the performance and superiority over its competitors. Therefore, the management of companies no longer need only useful information for the internal aspects of the environment, but also need to include the external environment that includes various and constantly changin
... Show MoreThe aim of this research is to find a relation between self-protection and the social - ignorance of the univresity students. In applying the aims of the reaearch, the ressearcher has constructed two scales to measure
self - protection and the social - ignorance. After finding their validity and stability and their discriminative power, the researcher has applied them on a sample of (200) male and female. University students, who were selected randomly. The results of the research has arrived at finding a positive relation between self-protection and social - ignorance.
The researcher has recommended a concentration on the role of parents in raising their childern depending on themselves and making f
... Show MoreThe current research aims to know the measurement of the fifth- secondary stage female students' affliction with the social phobia . The research is confined to General directorate of Education in Baghdad / Al-Karkh/2 / for the academic year 2015-2016 and fifth-secondary stage female students. It has been used descriptive method and exposed theoretical sides and previous studies concerning with the social phobia.The procedures of the research include the application of the social phobia scale on random sample of fifth- secondary stage female students ( both branches scientific and literary). The current study has concluded that the fifth- secondary stage female students have&nbs
... Show MoreParental socialization trends impacting seriously on the growth of individual
personality and psychological health trends ,love, acceptance and on confidence help
children to grow as a person who loves other accept others and trust and negative parental
attitudes such as excess portents us or negligence . and the focusing and demonstrate a
negative impact on the growth of excess an mental health and family play a significant role in
a childes life we can see how many manifestation of compatibility or incompatibility thatappear on individual behaviors and achieve their success or failure in life be returned to the
of human relations that prevailed between the family members of children in various stages of
his life fi
The current research seeks to shed light on the role that social media can play, through the optimal use of it by students, in achieving academic excellence. The most prominent aims that constitute it are:Identifying the social sites most used by students; learning how students interact with the published study material on communication sites and benefit from them to achieve their academic excellence; and knowing the connection between using social media and achieving academic excellence, and the role that these sites play in achieving academic excellence.That incorrect use by students leads to adverse results, and thus affects their academic level. Failure of parents to monitor their student’ use of social media leads
... Show MoreThe study aims to identify the relationship between forgiveness and social intelligence among elementary school students. The study employed a descriptive analytical approach, whereby a total of (500) elementary school student were selected randomly regarding the variable of gender and economical status. Two scales were prepared: one to measure the forgiveness depending on Albort’s theory that consist of (20) item, and the other to measure the social intelligence according to Tony’s theory which composed of (20) item as well. The result revealed that 6th grade students have interested level of the forgiveness and social intelligence, the girl showed significant differences according to the forgiveness variable, the sample
... Show MoreThe research aims to demonstrate the impact of internal audit in Iraqi economic units on enhancing social performance reports, through the statistical models used, as a survey list (for the independent variant) of the search, which contains five axes of each axis, contains a set of The questions were prepared on the basis of the standards issued by the Institute of Internal Auditors (IIA) and were distributed to a sample of internal auditors, as for (for the approved variable) the researcher obtained numerical data represented by the financial statements of the research sample and used statistical models such as model (Kolmakrov-Smirnov) is a good match (goodness of fit) which assumes that the data is distributed naturally as wel
... Show MoreThe study seeks to analyze the perceptions of audience in UAE towards the performance of Emirates Satellite TV Channels. It analyzed the exposure motivations of audience to satellite TV channels, its positive and negative aspects and to what extent they abide by media ethics. A survey is conducted with a sample of four hundred. The study shows significant differences between male and female towards the characteristics of TV channels, its positive and negative aspects and its commitments to media ethics.
The study also shows that the expectancy value model and third person effect model are applicable in studying the perceptions of audience and media people in UAE t
... Show MoreThe subject of disclosure, transparency and corporate governance taking globally significant attention recently, especially after the collapse of many large companies because the level of disclosure and transparency is an important measure of the effectiveness and reliability of the system of governance in the companies, the equity in the provision of correct information and clear and complete in a timely manner to all stakeholders in the life of the company with whom in relation strengthen the confidence the company's management systems and automatic guide the staff and the decision-making.
The research aims to shed light on the concept of corporate governance, and the reasons and motives of the spread
المقدمة
ان الاهتمام الاساسي في طرق الادارة الحديثة ينصب على تحقيق رضا المستهلك او الزبون، والذي يشكل الاولية الاولى، فالزبائن يشكلون محور نجاح كل تنظيم، فعدد التنظيمات التي تستهدف استلهام التوجه من العملاء (Customer driven) كبيرة ومتزايدة.
المنظمات الناجحة (Prosper) تركز بشكل كبير على زبائنها في عملية صنع القرار، فالمحاسبون الاداريون فيها يعطون انتباهاً متز
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