يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Learning programming is among the top challenges in computer science education. A part of that, program visualization (PV) is used as a tool to overcome the high failure and drop-out rates in an introductory programming course. Nevertheless, there are rising concerns about the effectiveness of the existing PV tools following the mixed results derived from various studies. Student engagement is also considered a vital factor in building a successful PV, while it is also an important part of the learning process in general. Several techniques have been introduced to enhance PV engagement; however, student engagement with PV is still challenging. This paper employed three theories—constructivism, social constructivism and cognitive load t
... Show MoreAs long as the place in which a person lives has a meaning and temporal dimensions , memory is the main axis of these dimensions , today , city centers and old historical sectors of cities are abandoned , and began to turn into slums , the contradiction between old and historical sectors led cities to lose their identity while people lost their sense of belongingness to the old sectors where their ancestors used to live . The old city of Hilla used to have social , historical and cultural role on determining the identity . The study problem can be summarized as the ( lack of studies regarding the impact of historical memory related to Hilla old city on social and cultural mobility ) , the study hypothesis claims that the social , histori
... Show MoreThe topic of the research dealt with the image of Iraq in the British press based on a sample of the newspapers (The Guardian and the Daily Telegraph), which are among the most important and largest newspapers in the United Kingdom and the world, because of its active role in guiding local and international public opinion towards important issues and events, Since these two newspapers are interested in the accuracy of sensitive political topics, the message aimed at knowing the media image that these two newspapers painted about Iraq in the period that was limited to the first quarter of 2019, and also to know the nature of the contents promoted by these newspapers about the Iraqi reality, The method of content analysis was used as an ap
... Show MoreAnd the necessity for the progress of modern societies Because the scientific and objective characteristics that characterize modern societies and distinguish them from traditional societies, Is represented by the extent of its innovative achievements in the theoretical, applied and material scientific and spiritual fields. It should be noted that quality and innovation in modern societies is based on two main pillars, Standard measures for measuring and evaluating innovations to achieve their high quality, And the dissemination of the culture of innovation to spread awareness of the importance and conditions of success, and this is done by the advanced industrial countries, However, despite the great disparity between developed industri
... Show MoreThe modernity of election practices of the elections in Iraq, according to the democratic approach, has led to a struggle between political rival forces reflecting a deep pressure on the tools involved in the management, marketing or control of these elections across the general social level. Hence the problem of research resides in answering the following question: What is the nature and size of the pressures affecting the media performance of Al-Iraqia News channel before the legislative elections of 2018 in Iraq?
The objectives of the research were the following:
1. to identify the nature of the pressures that limit the Al-Iraqia News channel’s perfo
In a world of fierce competition companies of different activities strive to strengthen their competitiveness in order to be able to deliver greater value to their customers and gain a distinct sites in competition with other companies in the market at the local and international levels. Every company seeks to focus on one or more of the competitive capabilities in order to turn it into an obvious advantage or a number of competitive advantages to contribute in improving the performance and superiority over its competitors. Therefore, the management of companies no longer need only useful information for the internal aspects of the environment, but also need to include the external environment that includes various and constantly changin
... Show MoreThe subject of disclosure, transparency and corporate governance taking globally significant attention recently, especially after the collapse of many large companies because the level of disclosure and transparency is an important measure of the effectiveness and reliability of the system of governance in the companies, the equity in the provision of correct information and clear and complete in a timely manner to all stakeholders in the life of the company with whom in relation strengthen the confidence the company's management systems and automatic guide the staff and the decision-making.
The research aims to shed light on the concept of corporate governance, and the reasons and motives of the spread
المقدمة
ان الاهتمام الاساسي في طرق الادارة الحديثة ينصب على تحقيق رضا المستهلك او الزبون، والذي يشكل الاولية الاولى، فالزبائن يشكلون محور نجاح كل تنظيم، فعدد التنظيمات التي تستهدف استلهام التوجه من العملاء (Customer driven) كبيرة ومتزايدة.
المنظمات الناجحة (Prosper) تركز بشكل كبير على زبائنها في عملية صنع القرار، فالمحاسبون الاداريون فيها يعطون انتباهاً متز
... Show MoreRepresent a topic occupational safety and health management is one of the priorities of the loading organization in the business environment ,and one of the requirement for the success and its impact on the productivity of workers and their performance in an appropriate working environment .The international responses to the problems that accompany the technological and industrial development of the business environment are the issuance of ISO 45001:2018 aimed at providing an appropriate framework for controlling risks , reducing injuries and work accidents and improving work performance ,after realizing the environmental relationship between safe and sound work with competition .The search’s issue is represented with the exist
... Show MoreThe developed financial system is essential for increasing economic growth and poverty reduction in the world. The financial development helps in poverty reduction indirectly via intermediate channel which is the economic growth. The financial development enhancing economic development through mobilization of savings and channel them to the most efficient uses with higher economic and social returns. In addition, the economic growth reduces the poverty through two channels. The first is direct by increasing the introduction factors held by poor and improve the situations into the sectors and areas where the poor live. The second is indirect through redistribution the realized incomes from the economic growth as well as the realiz
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