ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The theatrical image represents one of the tools of communication with the other to create a communicative language that is produced and transmitted by the actor and his body through the theatrical space to convey the meaning in all its forms and types. The actor is concerned with the composition and construction of these images. My girl, the image is fragmented and multiple and different. Therefore, based on the foregoing, the researcher has divided his research into four chapters, representing the (methodological framework). First, the research problem, which is manifested in the following question (what is the structure of the fragmented image of the actor's performance? The Iraqi playwright), and secondly: the importance of the resea
... Show MoreThe Industrial Banks in most countries in the world plays an essential and vital role in developing the industrial sector due to its effective importance in the economic and social development. The research aims to study the ability of the Industrial Bank of Iraq to the growth and development of the mixed industrial sector companies through loans granted to them. In addition, the research seeks to study credit policies pursued by the Industrial Bank of Iraq to finance the mixed industrial sector companies. The data of the research has been collected from the financial statements of the Industrial Banks of Iraq for the period 2007-2011, and by means of questionnaire distributed to a sample of the mixed industrial sector companies in
... Show Moreعرفت النظم القانونية انواعا مختلفة من الشركات اذ تعتبر الشركة الوعاء القانوني الاكثر ملائمة لغرض توظيف اموال المستثمرين في مشاريع ذات اهمية والذي يحقق نفا لاصحاب رؤوس الاموال المستثمرة فضلا عن اثرها البالغ على اقتصاد الدول وقد كان للشركة القابضة نصيب من هذا الاهتمام منذ القدم لدى العديد من الدول ووضعت لها احكاما تفصيلية تتناسب مع الاهمية التي يحظى بها هذا النوع من الشركات كونها تجمع لعدة شركات فرعية تسيطر ع
... Show Moreتزخر ذاكرة بغداد ب سماء العديد من الشخصيا ث في الناشطة والبارزة والتردي
لهذا الاثر البارز والمثير في ميدان الابداع و
The official spokesperson considered responsible for the transmission of information and communication messages that convey the government’s view on the various political and economic issues that affect the public opinion towards the performance achieved by the various governmental institutions and for the purpose of communicating with the media in a positive and effective manner, a number of institutions in the world in general and in Iraq in particular have nominated a spokesman to coordinate the efforts and the dissemination of news and the preparation of press conferences to contribute to the achievement of a positive and effective level between the government and the media, so this study has tackled to deal with the credibility of
... Show MoreFrom 1979 to 1999 several theatricl groups had produced (Mackbeth) by shakespear which were directed by different director and the role being played by different actors. So the questions are: How did those a Iraqi actors approach that character by their performance? Did they interpret the character Truelly as the poet wanted to be. The researcher aims to find out the true performance by the actor who impersonate (mackbeth) as a wicked personality, who had un rational ambition. The researcher also aims to expose the style of acting fallowed by the Iraqi actors in that play. In chapter of review of literature, The researcher discusses the weaning and procedure of the actor performance which include characterization and transformation. He a
... Show MoreDamascus has great importance throughout its history and has increased in the Umayyad period, It was interested the by Caliphs, and became the capital of the Islam, But the late Umayyad era has witness of troubles and political, this led to collapse the Umayyad state and take the Abbasid rule, despite the neglect of the Abbasids for this city and they left to others, but it remains of great concern by some of the Abbasid caliphs.
The development of a future mechanism for sustainable development in Iraq to meet the current and future challenges requires an analysis of the indicators of sustainable development. This research aims at presenting and analyzing the social care aspect and highlighting the important role of taxes with a focus on social sustainable development to determine the extent and direction of changes. Level of progress, the researcher concludes the weakness of the financial allocations to the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs and in line with the large number of people who apply the conditions and controls, and recommends the researcher the necessity of participation of all segments of society between the public and private sector In terms of o
... Show MoreThis research aims to introduce the general tax on sales in gordan and the most important concepts related to this type of taxes and identify the most on characteristics and stand on its role in supplying the general budget of the necessary fundig to cover the over head of the state and the factorsinfluencing it and whether such a tax has been able to chieve the desired goals.including in contribute to an important and growing role in puplic revenues or not to be able to achieve these goals through the use of descriptive and analytical technique based on the data and information relevant.wasreached some conclusion and recommendations was most important is that the general sales tax comes in
... Show MoreThe research(the internal and external factors affecting the political system in
PAKISTAN) involves a series of effects interact both internally and external to affect the
stsbility of the political system.
Intrernally there are a lot of powers affecting the political map of PAKISTAN such as
military institution, political parties, judgement, religious schools……etc.of internal
factors, which represent one of the most important pressure points on the system.
Externally one of the most important external factors which affect internal stability is
Pakistani allision to USA in antiterrorism war. The Pakistani military institution was
involved in the war against Pakistani tribes leading to unstable security in Paki