ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Novel has recently received the attention of readers and writers greatly, because of the role they play, and this indicates an important rule, which is whenever there is an art or creativity, there must be a respective criticism, and this criticism is certainly not less important than the author. So there are critics who have a prestigious literary position in the follow-up story development, and trying to describe the transformation of its elements. One of these critics is professor Fadhel Thamer, and who wants to approach one of the elements of the novel exploring, must stop on the visions of this critic about it , and that’s why we take the (character) element following the most important opinions of this critic about
... Show MoreAfter the internal audit as a tool of internal control in any organization, and helps in the evaluation of all internal control activities, as a tool to ensure compliance with the plans and policies to achieve the goals of the institution as much as possible of the efficiency, effectiveness, and should have the Internal Audit full independence and is linked to senior management, and aims to get the credibility and accuracy of information and data, and keep abreast of modern developments.
The practical side includes the preparation of the questionnaire, which included a set of questions that fit the hypothesis of the research, was Tozeiha the research sample consisting of employees of the Internal Audit Department an
... Show MoreThe official spokesperson considered responsible for the transmission of information and communication messages that convey the government’s view on the various political and economic issues that affect the public opinion towards the performance achieved by the various governmental institutions and for the purpose of communicating with the media in a positive and effective manner, a number of institutions in the world in general and in Iraq in particular have nominated a spokesman to coordinate the efforts and the dissemination of news and the preparation of press conferences to contribute to the achievement of a positive and effective level between the government and the media, so this study has tackled to deal with the credibility of
... Show MoreFrom 1979 to 1999 several theatricl groups had produced (Mackbeth) by shakespear which were directed by different director and the role being played by different actors. So the questions are: How did those a Iraqi actors approach that character by their performance? Did they interpret the character Truelly as the poet wanted to be. The researcher aims to find out the true performance by the actor who impersonate (mackbeth) as a wicked personality, who had un rational ambition. The researcher also aims to expose the style of acting fallowed by the Iraqi actors in that play. In chapter of review of literature, The researcher discusses the weaning and procedure of the actor performance which include characterization and transformation. He a
... Show Moreفي البداية اود الاشارة الى ان فهم حقيقة الازمة هو ذو جانب فني يتعلق بالجينات الوراثية لنظام يملك في احيناته قدرة عالية على تفريخ المشتقات. هذا النظام الذي يزداد عقما وتدميرا يزداد قدرة على خلق النقود الائتمانية/المشتقات، وكلما اقتربنا اكثر من فهم هذا الجانب كلما اسقطت في ايدينا تلك التوصيفات الاكاديمية الجاهزة في نقص الرقابة والاشراف، تركيز المخاطر،....الخ التي تناولتها الكتابات الشائعة في معظم طروحات
... Show Moreالمقدمة ومنهجية البحث
تتفق أغلب الأدبيات ومنها المحاسبية, بأن الخطوة الأولى في وضع وتقييم أي نظام إداري أو محاسبي هي في صياغة أهداف ذلك النظام لما لذلك من أهمية في توفير معيار للحكم على كفاءة التطبيق من عدمه.
وتعرف الأهداف بأنها (النهايات التي تعمل أو توجه النشاطات باتجاهها أو هي النهايات التي تطمح النشاطات تحقيقها). ( 1 ) ..,
كما تعرف أيضا بأنها (الأ
... Show MoreBroadcasting across satellites has become an important media phenomenon and largely available for watchers. As the receiver can see the events at the very moment and at any spot in the world. This study aims to discover the degree of the extent of exposure of Iraqi people to the news broadcasting satellites in Arabic language, (Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya, Al Ekhbariya Satellite Channels) as one of the media that serves the public; and to discover the range of these Satellite Channels in covering the local Iraqi situation in different sides and aspects; and to know the significance of the Iraqi people in watching those news programmers; and state the motives behind the Iraqi public's dependence on these channels.
The
... Show MoreThis research aims to introduce the general tax on sales in gordan and the most important concepts related to this type of taxes and identify the most on characteristics and stand on its role in supplying the general budget of the necessary fundig to cover the over head of the state and the factorsinfluencing it and whether such a tax has been able to chieve the desired goals.including in contribute to an important and growing role in puplic revenues or not to be able to achieve these goals through the use of descriptive and analytical technique based on the data and information relevant.wasreached some conclusion and recommendations was most important is that the general sales tax comes in
... Show MoreThe present paper attempts to find out the role of developmental loans in promoting strategic crops especially the basis stemming from the problem of non - defining economic feasibility study and the negative or positive revenues of developmental loans, directed to Iraqi Agricultural sector in general and Basic strategic crops in particular which resulted in the difficulty of planning and future prediction to grant loans agriculturally directed in terms of quality and quantity and the arbitrary of distributing these loans .the strategic crops have been selected as sample of population where the sample of Basic strategic crops include wheat and barley .The paper has come to several of conclusions mainly are as follows :- the increase in n
... Show MoreThe development of a future mechanism for sustainable development in Iraq to meet the current and future challenges requires an analysis of the indicators of sustainable development. This research aims at presenting and analyzing the social care aspect and highlighting the important role of taxes with a focus on social sustainable development to determine the extent and direction of changes. Level of progress, the researcher concludes the weakness of the financial allocations to the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs and in line with the large number of people who apply the conditions and controls, and recommends the researcher the necessity of participation of all segments of society between the public and private sector In terms of o
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