ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The theatrical image represents one of the tools of communication with the other to create a communicative language that is produced and transmitted by the actor and his body through the theatrical space to convey the meaning in all its forms and types. The actor is concerned with the composition and construction of these images. My girl, the image is fragmented and multiple and different. Therefore, based on the foregoing, the researcher has divided his research into four chapters, representing the (methodological framework). First, the research problem, which is manifested in the following question (what is the structure of the fragmented image of the actor's performance? The Iraqi playwright), and secondly: the importance of the resea
... Show MoreRights of child in the community crisis Iraqi child model The study aimed to identify the types of violation against children in the Iraqi crisis as well as to develop community coping mechanisms to these violations and promote the rights of the child health psychological , social and legal . the first chapter discusses the research problem and its importance and purpose of the research problem and its importance and purpose of the research and the most important terms in the A- Rights of the child ,B- crisis , chapter 2 rights of the child ensure the historical roots , of children’s rights in the holy quran and the sunnah, and legal rights through the twentieth century and the beginnings of century xx, the se through the twentieth cen
... Show Moreتزخر ذاكرة بغداد ب سماء العديد من الشخصيا ث في الناشطة والبارزة والتردي
لهذا الاثر البارز والمثير في ميدان الابداع و
The official spokesperson considered responsible for the transmission of information and communication messages that convey the government’s view on the various political and economic issues that affect the public opinion towards the performance achieved by the various governmental institutions and for the purpose of communicating with the media in a positive and effective manner, a number of institutions in the world in general and in Iraq in particular have nominated a spokesman to coordinate the efforts and the dissemination of news and the preparation of press conferences to contribute to the achievement of a positive and effective level between the government and the media, so this study has tackled to deal with the credibility of
... Show MoreAfter the internal audit as a tool of internal control in any organization, and helps in the evaluation of all internal control activities, as a tool to ensure compliance with the plans and policies to achieve the goals of the institution as much as possible of the efficiency, effectiveness, and should have the Internal Audit full independence and is linked to senior management, and aims to get the credibility and accuracy of information and data, and keep abreast of modern developments.
The practical side includes the preparation of the questionnaire, which included a set of questions that fit the hypothesis of the research, was Tozeiha the research sample consisting of employees of the Internal Audit Department an
... Show MoreThe novel has recently received great attention from readers and before them writers, due to the role it is playing, and this indicates an important rule, which is whenever there is art or creativity, there must be a criticism of its own, and this criticism is certainly no less important than its owner, so we find There are critics who have their distinguished literary position in following up the narrative development, and trying to describe the transformation of its elements, including Professor Fadel Thamer, and whoever wants to approach an element of the novel as an explorer, he must stand on the visions of this critic about it, and this is what made us take the element (personality) Tracking the most important opinions of the critic
... Show MoreBrowse Iraqi academic journals and research papers
The summary of this study is to identify the relation ship between exposuing of the
public to foreign satellites and the degree of cultural of Iraqi public . the danger Iraqi public
exposure to foreign satellite specially some groups of the public are still own limited culture
and ideology without enough conscious to attitude of society . such people cun easily be
controlled by satellites , because these satellites may be the only cultural source for them
which may badly affect their behaviour . This study also aims to identify the level of Iraqi
people exposure to foreign satellites and the types and motivations of that exposure , then to
realize the relationship between exposing to foreign satellites and the cultur