ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The importance of earnings quality begin increase in recent year . Particulary after collapse the big companies in U.S.A When the Stock Prices of this Companies negative impact after reporting of transitory & unrealized earnings in the iterim reports , in the same time took to this earnings as absis of Future Predictions .
Many of acadmic researchers discusses empirical measures that used to assessments of earnings quality from the perspective of decision usefulness that represent core of FASB's conceptual Framework , and to the economic – based definition of earnings , developed by (Hicks) in 1939.
Tise research attempt to test som of earnings quality measures in commercial
... Show MoreBackground: Various abnormalities in myocardial repolarization assessed by QT variability index (QTVI) in diabetics are associated with high risk to ventricular arrhythmia. The increase in cardiovascular morbidity and mortality appears to relate to the synergism of hyperglycemia with dyslipidemia, hypertension and obesity in addition to disturbed myocardial repolarization.
Objectives: The aim of the present study was to estimate and evaluate an index of myocardial repolarization instability (QTVI) in patients with DM on insulin or oral hypoglycemic drugs in comparison with healthy individuals.
Patients and Methods: The study was conducted on fifty six (56), middle-aged patients with DM of either sex in addition to age-matched healt
This research aims to Measurement provide the service from Two perspectives The first perspective Service Provider (doctors) and the second recipient of the service (patients) in Numan General Hospital, and represented the research problem in perceptions of medical staff in the hospital assigned to them responsibility by providing superior services satisfy customers, and how they maintained ready to assist customers and provide services that exceed their perceptions of these services through the use of the developer scale by (Frimpong and Wilson, 2012), includes orientation to provide the service scale four dimensions (Internal cooperative behaviors, service Competence, Service Responsiveness and Enhanced service) and includes do
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to highlight the income tax by direct deduction in Iraq and the most important problems and obstacles faced by this type of taxes and identify the reasons for the clear and striking differences in the deduction between those charged with the state departments to reach the exact calculation in accordance with the laws and instructions and the unification of tax deductions for similar cases and clarify Cases of confusion and ambiguity, and achieving justice by deduction, whether in favor of the taxpayer or financial authority. Under the laws and regulations in force.
The study was conducted on a sample of the salaries of the employees of the University of Basra, and interviews with account m
... Show MoreAbstract :
The Aims of this research is to describe the concept of risk, its type and method of measurement, and to clarify the impact of these risks on the expected cash flow statement and the preparation of the target cash flow statement that takes these risks into consideration. Because the local economic environment is exposed to many risks, Therefore, this list will be predictive, which will help the economic unit to make administrative decisions, especially decisions related to operational, investment and financing activities. Therefore, the research problem is based on the fact that most of the local economic units are the list of flows According to the actual basis and not according to the discretionary basis (bud
... Show MoreBackground:recent data indicate the prevalence of cardiovascular disease in patientswith high cystatin-C level;it can be used as a good predictor for assessment of mortality in cardiovascular diseases regardless of the status of renal function.
Patients and methods: Onehundred twenty (120) patients with ischemic heart disease admitted to this study at Baghdad teaching hospital for the period from January 2011 to September2011,Those patients categorized into two groups (60) diabetic and (60) non diabetic in comparison to fifty healthy control.Fasting serum cystatin-C was measured in all patients and controls.
Results: The level of serum cystatin-C, in diabetic patients with ischemic heart disease was (2.05±0.55 μg/L). Its level in
Background: Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common endocrine disorder in women of reproductive age with primary manifestations of infertility, menstrual dysfunction and clinical or biochemical hyperandrogenism (hirsutism, acne and elevated androgen). Adiponectin is the most abundant adipokine. It has insulin-sensitizing, anti-atherogenic, and antiinflammatory actions.
Objective: Low adiponectin levels in women with PCOS have been largely attributed to obesity which is common among these patients. Therefore, the aim of this study was to measure adiponectin levels in normal weight women with PCOS and its contribution to development of disease.
Subjects and Methods: Fifty two (52) women were include
Abstract
The prevention of bankruptcy not only prolongs the economic life of the company and increases its financial performance, but also helps to improve the general economic well-being of the country. Therefore, forecasting the financial shortfall can affect various factors and affect different aspects of the company, including dividends. In this regard, this study examines the prediction of the financial deficit of companies that use the logistic regression method and its impact on the earnings per share of companies listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange. The time period of the research is from 2015 to 2020, where 33 companies that were accepted in the Iraqi Stock Exchange were selected as a sample, and the res
... Show Moreفي البداية اود الاشارة الى ان فهم حقيقة الازمة هو ذو جانب فني يتعلق بالجينات الوراثية لنظام يملك في احيناته قدرة عالية على تفريخ المشتقات. هذا النظام الذي يزداد عقما وتدميرا يزداد قدرة على خلق النقود الائتمانية/المشتقات، وكلما اقتربنا اكثر من فهم هذا الجانب كلما اسقطت في ايدينا تلك التوصيفات الاكاديمية الجاهزة في نقص الرقابة والاشراف، تركيز المخاطر،....الخ التي تناولتها الكتابات الشائعة في معظم طروحات
... Show Moreالمقدمة ومنهجية البحث
تتفق أغلب الأدبيات ومنها المحاسبية, بأن الخطوة الأولى في وضع وتقييم أي نظام إداري أو محاسبي هي في صياغة أهداف ذلك النظام لما لذلك من أهمية في توفير معيار للحكم على كفاءة التطبيق من عدمه.
وتعرف الأهداف بأنها (النهايات التي تعمل أو توجه النشاطات باتجاهها أو هي النهايات التي تطمح النشاطات تحقيقها). ( 1 ) ..,
كما تعرف أيضا بأنها (الأ
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