ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
يواجه المصرف تحولات عديدة أثناء سير عمله ولا سيما قد تحول من مصرف صناعي يسعى الى تحقيق التنمية الصناعية ، من خلال منحه قروض وتسهيلات تنموية وتدعمه الدوله ، الى مصرف شامل يسعى الى تحقيق الربحية في ظل تنويع الأنشطة والخدمات والعمليات الائتمانية.يهدف البحث الى دراسة التحولات التي حدثت في المصرف الصناعي، وتأثير هذا التحول على النشاط الائتماني. وقد استند في ذلك على فرضية رئيسة وهي :-
... Show MoreSheikh Hanafi was born in one of the popular shops of Baghdad with interlocking social relations, and had a profound impact this camp where his talents in the first Venco loving to Mahalah and Baghdad and was born with this development since his days looked forward to the folklore and folk. In the middle of his youth, including authoring loves the heritage of folk legacies began in motion, from Baghdad, books, articles, research has brought him wide acclaim were not possible without the seriousness and diligence, independence and self-Asamath that mushroom on them
The trip was one of his tools in the scientific fame has gone to many Eastern and Asian countries and visited religious and literary institutes and delivered the lectures an
Аннотация
В данном исследовании рассматривается символичность (( Джикора )) в лирике иракского поэта ас-Саййаба и перевода лирики o деревне и городе с арабского на русский. Русский читатель пока не имеет возможности познакомиться с стихотворениями Бадра Шакера.
Abstract
The paper aims at making the Russian reader acquainted with the Iraqi Poet Badr Shakir as-Sayyab, and showing the effect of the village an
... Show MoreMany countries are very important in their interest not only in diversifying foreign reserves, but in determining and planning their volume in accordance with the goals set, namely facing potential external shocks, as the research aims to determine the extent of the strength of foreign reserves in the possession of the Central Bank in relation to every influential variable in the Iraqi economy. , in order to determine the minimum level of reserves that requires reconsideration of the exchange rate, as the research adopted the inductive analytical method in analyzing real (Quantitative data) for the research variables in the years of study, as the research adopted a set of analytical indicators approved by the International Moneta
... Show MoreThe research topic (The dramatic structure transformations in the Iraqi Feature Film) studies the dramatic structure and its transformations in the Iraqi feature film. The research determined the research problem and the need for it in addition to the aims and the limits of the study as well as its importance. The theoretical framework consists of the following themes: the dramatic transformations mechanism and dramatic data in the Iraq film 1957-2003 then the dramatic values transformations and the performance contradictions in the Iraqi film.
The research, after concluding the theoretical framework, came up with a number of indicators of the theoretical framework that have been used as a tool to analyze the sample. The research proc
The excellence and uniqueness is what makes the artwork creative or not, and the School of Op. Art in Iraq came to reveal new phenomena distinct style, unique in units built, although a few worked in this aspect of the art, but they left their mark distinct, in the research, construction and installation of what binds them in heritage and civilization, it is a new vision of linking the past with the present, they adopt and engineering units may be architectural sometimes in composition, concluded a researcher at the end of the research to the main findings and conclusions, which is that more business was a square-shaped or semi-square, which is commensurate painting with visual, which is a set of vocabulary or repeat units, we do not fin
... Show MoreThe culture of theatre performance has a vital role in the process of reading the linguistic and visual signs of the performance. And the process of transforming a theatre performance from its original context into a new hosting cultural context starts from the actual reading of the text. Directors derives their new signs out of his personal culture, depending on the society where they lives and the culture that forms the social conventions, traditions and beliefs. The text is usually written within its own historical and temporal culture. The process of its production usually takes it away from its original culture, when it interprets the codes of the original writer and their visual and linguistic signs and instils new alternative sign
... Show MoreIn the present work, a kinetic study was performed to the extraction of phosphate from Iraqi Akashat phosphate ore using organic acid. Leaching was studied using lactic acid for the separation of calcareous materials (mainly calcite). Reaction conditions were 2% by weight acid concentration and 5ml/gm of acid volume to ore weight ratio. Reaction time was taken in the range 2 to 30 minutes (step 2 minutes) to determine the reaction rate constant k based on the change in calcite concentration. To determine value of activation energy when reaction temperature is varied from 25 to 65 , another investigation was accomplished. Through the kinetic data, it was found that selective leaching was controlled by
... Show MoreSignification with its different aspects constitutes various aesthetic pictures for human and nature creations over different periods of time. It was a focal around which logical thinking loops on the interpretation level of the signification movement according to its structural context expresses its hidden entities with which a human being deals according to two symmetrical levels while interpreting to attain meaning. Sense was the first passing window for the picture of signification which thought deals with. While trying to decode it and because art in general and theatre in particular are considered as the basis of creating signification through its visual and aural elements, so it was necessary to consider one of the elements of cre
... Show MoreThe presence and absence binary is an essential part of and a motivation for the direction vision which depends on the principle that the components of the theatre performance move in contrast with each other; one is directly informative which is the presence relations and the other is structural that is identical to the absence relations. The first is material band visual that evokes the incorporeal mental absent. Hence, the present study(Presence and Absence in the Iraqi Theatre Performance :Summer's Rain Play as an Example) aims at explaining those relations and their transformations between presence and absence in the performance