ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
على الرغم من تطور الدراسات التاريخية الخاصة بالمرأة بوصفها حقل معرفي مستقل بدأ منذ نهاية الستينيات من القرن الماضي .ونجاج الكاتبات والباحثات في العديد من بلدان الشرق الاوسط وشمال افريقيا في إعادة المرأة الى التاريخ، الا ان الكتابة التاريخية في العراق مازالت تعاني من نقص كبير في الموضوعات التي تناولت حياة النساء في الماضي. وما يزال الباحثات والباحثين ينظرون الى التاريخ على انه سردية للمعارك والحروب ويو
... Show MoreIt is often needed in demographic research to modern statistical tools are flexible and convenient to keep up with the type of data available in Iraq in terms of the passage of the country far from periods of war and economic sanctions and instability of the security for a period of time . So, This research aims to propose the use of style nonparametric splines as a substitute for some of the compounds of analysis within the model Lee-Carter your appreciation rate for fertility detailed variable response in Iraq than the period (1977 - 2011) , and then predict for the period (2012-2031). This goal was achieved using a style nonparametric decomposition of singular value vehicles using the main deltoid , and then estimate the effect of time-s
... Show MoreAt different stages of the evolution of the modern Iraqi state ears last century did not receive the industrial sectors importance in great domestic production (GDP) and that the limited resources available in the initial stage and the dominance of public sector industry in the late stage , so the continued decline in the contribution of the private industrial sector in GDP , and this is why imbalance in the labor market and reduced demand for manpower in this sector despite the high rates of labor supply and the various skills and levels of investments, their human and the different geographical distribution , and direction of labor to other economic sectors most requested of the l
... Show MoreThis study examines the relationship between the increase in the number of tourists coming to Tunisia and GDP during the period 1995-2017, using the methodology of joint integration, causal testing and error correction model. The research found the time series instability of the logarithm of the number of tourists coming to Tunisia and the output logarithm but after applying the first differences, these chains become stable, THUS these time series are integrated in the first differences. Using the Johansson method, we found the possibility of a simultaneous integration relationship between the logarithm of the number of tourists coming to Tunisia and the logarithm of GDP in Tunisia, and there is a causal relationship in one direc
... Show MoreVocational education is the basis of contemporary educational movement that aims at satisfying human needs. Societies can develop their human resources via setting programs for the working class as an aspect of the comprehensive national development. Vocational education is the main source of technical cadres the Iraqi labor market requires of the vocational preparatory schools to provide after three years of schooling.
The vocational schools of the governorate of Basra have a number of problems that lead to the lack of proficiency of their graduates. This study is an attempt to identify these problems or obstacles
... Show MoreIslamic banks are a financial institution that is interested in attracting financial savings from financial entities and directing them towards those with financial deficits, both for consumption purposes or for investment purposes. It provides banking services provided by commercial banks and other services But based on the principles and principles of Islamic law, and because of its recent emergence in Iraq, its ability to attract savings is not like non-Islamic commercial banks, which puts them in the option of using their capital to achieve its objective of banking. The research started from the premise that "Islamic banks in Iraq during the period (2008-2012) rely on their capital to perform their activities more than they rely on d
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The problem of the study is the main question (Can tourism planning address the phenomenon of unemployment in Iraq ?) , And the importance of the study in the fact that the tourism sector can become an effective development alternative in many countries, especially Iraq, as tourism contributes to diversify sources of income and stimulate other economic sectors , We know how important Iraq's qualifications are in the field of tourism and what it can generate on the public treasury, To confirm the current study on the need to pay attention to tourism planning for its role in providing employment opportunities that reduce the unemployment rate in the future.
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Agricultural Bank is an important source of funding Specialist His role in lending to farmers, it imposes a great job in providing the necessary head for any developmental process in the agricultural sector money. The ACB of ancient Iraqi banks, and that because of its importance to the advancement of the national economy and contribute to the development and regulation of the economic sector through the support and the assignment of the Iraqi agricultural sector in various agricultural activities because it is responsible
for the process of granting agricultural loans to farmers bank.
The aim of the internal control in the agricultural banks to
... Show MoreThe objective of this study is to attempt to provide a quantitative analysis to the causes of unemployment in Iraq and its mechanisms of generation, as well as a review of the most important types of both visible and invisible unemployment, and an attempt to measure the disguised unemployment and analyze the causes. The problem of the research lies in the fact that the Iraqi Economy has been suffered for a long time although its characterized by abundant physical and natural resources, from the existence of the phenomenon of unemployment in the previous two types. Causing a lot of economic problems, represented by the great waste of resources and
... Show MoreThis study tests the effect of a large number of independent variables that control the growth of the total productivity, which amounted to 112 variables, gathered from what is mentioned in the specialized theoretical and applied literature. The data for these variables were taken from global reports of sound international organizations and reliable databases covering the period 1991-2016. The data of the dependent variable, the growth of the total factor productivity, were taken from the database of the world development indicators. The study covered 61 countries for which data were available. The study included three regression models to explain
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