ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
هدف البحث الحالي إلى عامل البخل المعرفي الذي يعد من العوامل التي تعطل الأفراد سعي الى الادراك المتمثل بالبيئة المادية والمعرفية والعالم المحيط بهم فهو يجعل الأفراد لا يرغبون في بذل المزيد من الجهد والوقت في التفكير والتحليل مما يؤدي الي معوقات في الإدراك، فالبخل المعرفي هو اعتماد الفرد الاختصارات العقلية والاستدلالات العقلية السريعة للحفاظ على الموارد العقلية عند التعامل مع المهام التي تتطلب في المقام الا
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يمكن القول أن التقدم والتخلف قضيتان جذورهما فكرية تتمحوران حول استخدام المنهجية العلمية وليست التكنولوجيا عملاً خلافاً او مستحيلاً على أي شعب اذا اتيح له تربية العقل المنهجي أنه العقل الذي تعلم كيف يفكر . فالتكنولوجية : هي العملية الابداعية لمثل هذا العقل المنهجي وليس هذا العقل وليد المصادفة بل إن التربية أهم عوامل بنائه. فإذا ما أفادت التربية من هذه الحقيق
... Show MoreThis aim research of this discussion impact of investment in human capital dimensions (training, education, knowledge management, skills development) and its components (knowledge, skills, abilities, value) with the Office of the Inspector General's staff - Ministry of Culture in Iraq, has depended questionnaire as a tool in the collection data and information ,subjected to a measure of validity and reliability, and distributed to a sample of (63) individuals were distributed in positions (director, director of the Division of employees) have been analyzed data search using ready-statistical software (SPSS) the used hypothesis testing and correlati
... Show MoreThe current research aims to know the measurement of the fifth- secondary stage female students' affliction with the social phobia . The research is confined to General directorate of Education in Baghdad / Al-Karkh/2 / for the academic year 2015-2016 and fifth-secondary stage female students. It has been used descriptive method and exposed theoretical sides and previous studies concerning with the social phobia.The procedures of the research include the application of the social phobia scale on random sample of fifth- secondary stage female students ( both branches scientific and literary). The current study has concluded that the fifth- secondary stage female students have&nbs
... Show MoreIt is important to be able to be able to be able to do so. . (Physics and mathematics) English language lessons English language tutoring English language tutoring English tutoring of the Modern of the Modern of the Modern of the Modern of the Modern. English Artiques of the Imagisies of the Nature of the Sciences of the Sciences of the Confectionery of the Consulting of the Confectionery of the Consultants. Wikipedia. The current research objective has been to measure: - 1-The level of psychological and social harmony for the children of martyrs of the popular crowd. 2- the correlation between the psychological and social compatibility of the children of the martyrs of the popular crowd and its relationship to some variables. In order t
... Show MoreThe research aims to identify the extent of the impact of non-Iraqi trading of shares in the Iraq Stock Exchange on the overall financial investment in the market size. And it imposes a search and no statistically significant relationship between variable trading non-Iraqis, the size and the total volume of the market and took the search Iraq Stock Exchange sample to search being the only private place to trade securities in Iraq for the period of 2009- 2015 in order to see if there is a positive impact on the size of trading non-Iraqis or not. Search and adopted the annual reports issued by the Iraq Stock Exchange the main conclusion are:
Having a positive effect on the size of the trading of non-Iraqis in the financial vo
... Show MoreFinancial markets play an important role in the economy, as it contributes to the financial and economic system of the state stability, as it reduces the adoption of the companies on the loans granted by the banks, as financial markets contribute to attracting and channeling savings to small savers who will be able to buy a number of shares proportional to their savings, It also provides them the place of exchange, and play technology and information systems an important role in facilitating exchanges and increased market activity, in this research touched on the importance of information technology in effect on the activity of the financial markets. Research is divided into three demands of the first concept of eating and the importance
... Show MoreThe research tacklets the role of risks arising from the excessive use of derivative contracts for trading in financial crises, including the recent global financial crisis in (2008) which is known the mortgage crisis.
In order to prove the hypothesis of the research, the risk index of derivative contracts has been chosed as expressed in the measure of (value at risk) to be the main field for testing the hypothesis of research. The duration of the contract has been also chased for (15) years between the years (2001- 2015), the period preceding the global financial crisis, while the second represents the period of time that followed. The research reached a number of conclusions, bu
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Praise be to God who has guided us, and we would not have been guided had it not been for the guidance of God Almighty. The life of the Commander of the Faithful, Imam Ali bin Abi Talib, peace be upon him, represented the highest meanings of sacrifice, redemption, courage, heroism, patience, altruism, and truth, which were embodied in his unique personality, whose counterpart is rare, if not unparalleled in history. Except for the person of the Holy Prophet Muhammad (may God bless him and his family and grant them peace). In this research, we have presented pictures from the life of Imam Ali bin Abi Talib (peace be upon him), as we have clarified his life, upbringing, conversion to Islam and his ma
... Show MoreThis research aims to measure the impact of applying bank governance mechanisms in reducing the financial risks of banks listed on the Palestine Stock Exchange, and to answer research questions and test hypotheses for the study, researchers adopted the descriptive and analytical approach, and data were collected from the annual financial reports of the banks listed on the Palestine Exchange during the period between (2009-2018), as a time series for the purpose of finding, analyzing and measuring the effect between the study variables during this period by (60) views for each of the study variables, using the statistical analysis program views(9) to enter, process and analyze the data. The results of the study proved that there i
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