ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The effective application of the method of measuring and evaluating performance according to the Balanced Scorecard the need for an information system a comprehensive and integrated for internal and external environment, Which requires the need to develop accounting information system in general and cost management information systems to suit the particular requirements of the environment in terms of the development of modern methods of measurement to include the use of some methods that have proven effective in measuring and evaluating performance.
The research problem in need of management to develop methods of measuring and evaluating performance through the use of both financial measures and non
... Show MoreCapital Adequacy is on of the most importance of financial position element because its role is enhance against varions risks of Banking procese . Which this risks is a result of the nature of its operations , investment , Financing tools in addition , in order to Faced any clients withdraws un expected .
So This study aim to measure The Capital Adequacy according to basel II and explin the different risk in the Islamic Bank as aresult to nature and different investment and financing tools as participation speculation , murabah and natures of its assets and liabilities related to commercial banks .
Find out we concludes that the Islamic Banks needs to increase the ca
... Show MoreThe study aims to clarify the impact of growth in the industrial sector on economic growth in the Iraqi economics according to the methodology of Kaldor for (2017-2030) , taking into consideration the effect of the accumulation of capital in the calculation of growth rates in the economy through productivity estimate of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) to growth in the economy, which is why the study assumes a formula to comply with the laws of Kaldor growth models developed requirements. This study is the most important to find out the development of the laws of Kaldor among Arabic studies, especially the first and third, so that the relationship between the growth of industrial production and economic growth as represented
... Show MoreThe research aims at identify the role of the electronic trading system used in the Iraq stock exchange to promote trading activity for the stocks of listed companies in this market.
To prove the hypothesis of research, it was selected the main trading indicators for the market to be a main field in test the research hypothesis.it was selected as the period of time for (9)years span between the years (2005-2013) because they represent the first two articles of equal time periods represent aperiod that preceded the introduction of electronic trading system while the second represents the period of time that followed
The research found a number of conclusions but the mo
... Show MoreThis study aimed to determine obesity level of some population in Baghdad by using Bio-electrical impedance analysis (BIA) and compared with anthropometric measurements such as body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR). Statistical analysis results of linear correlation coefficients for obesity indicators showed that BIA correlation 0.92 was most significant and reliable for obesity measurement.
Results of BIA method for age group 20-29 years showed that 44.4% of females were healthy body while 37.8% of males suffer from increased body fat. Results of age group 30-39 year showed that 32.6 of females were in healthy body and 42% of males were obese. In case age group 40-4
... Show MoreOne of the most frightening to children ages pre-school entry , Are those concerns about natural phenomena such as (The darkness, the sound of thunder, lightning and light, and rainfall, and storms) These natural phenomena are not familiar to the child , It may have a surprise when he/ she sees , And others intimidated , The affects of panic and fears that may lead him some psychological injury symptoms.
The fear of the dark, of the most common concerns associated with the child in his daily life , As the children's fear of the dark is reasonably fear that makes him a natural to live in the unknown , We can not identify what around him and is afraid of something collision, Or injury from somet
... Show MoreMedia and communication's research are varied in accordance to research approaches' variety which seeks to reach convergent social, psycholo
... Show MoreThe earthly music has a clear influence on the religious music in the musical culture to read and recite the Holy Quran in the city of Baghdad. This research deals with this subject in an attempt to reveal the influence of the Iraqi maqam in the recitation of Hafiz Khalil Ismail. The methodological framework of the research included the problem of research and its importance as it is useful to the Iraqi schools concerned with the recitation of the Holy Quran in Iraq. The theoretical framework included three sections that serve the literature of its subject: the first is (Iraqi maqam), the second is (the recitation of the Holy Quran) and the third is (the biography of Hafez Khalil Ismail).
The most important procedures
... Show MoreThe current research (violence in contemporary Iraqi drawing) study the nature of the manifestations of violence, Kdoual effective in technical text and give these functions of the images have multiple connotations psychological symbolism, and has read the text in the light of the impact of the Iraqi social reality after the recent occupation of events and to study the impact of this stage on Iraqi contemporary painting, and this research consists of three chapters included the first chapter defines the research problem, which is illustrated through the following questions which are real problems require study and research .
Is constitute an objective treatment of the Academy of artistic representations of a phenomenon in the for
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