ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Abstract:
There is a close relationship between rigidity and distort structure of production and productivity and inflation rates. The effects of this relationship are distorted the contribution rate of the productive sectors and the disproportionate of exchange rate in foreign trade.
raising the general level of prices is one of the way that have been used by previous governments (inflationary financing or deficit financing) in order to speed up the process of capital formation, depending on the availability of economic resources idle.
The fabricating inflation for development does not represent a true understanding of the nature of the
... Show MoreThe effective application of the method of measuring and evaluating performance according to the Balanced Scorecard the need for an information system a comprehensive and integrated for internal and external environment, Which requires the need to develop accounting information system in general and cost management information systems to suit the particular requirements of the environment in terms of the development of modern methods of measurement to include the use of some methods that have proven effective in measuring and evaluating performance.
The research problem in need of management to develop methods of measuring and evaluating performance through the use of both financial measures and non
... Show MoreThe study aims to clarify the impact of growth in the industrial sector on economic growth in the Iraqi economics according to the methodology of Kaldor for (2017-2030) , taking into consideration the effect of the accumulation of capital in the calculation of growth rates in the economy through productivity estimate of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) to growth in the economy, which is why the study assumes a formula to comply with the laws of Kaldor growth models developed requirements. This study is the most important to find out the development of the laws of Kaldor among Arabic studies, especially the first and third, so that the relationship between the growth of industrial production and economic growth as represented
... Show MoreCapital Adequacy is on of the most importance of financial position element because its role is enhance against varions risks of Banking procese . Which this risks is a result of the nature of its operations , investment , Financing tools in addition , in order to Faced any clients withdraws un expected .
So This study aim to measure The Capital Adequacy according to basel II and explin the different risk in the Islamic Bank as aresult to nature and different investment and financing tools as participation speculation , murabah and natures of its assets and liabilities related to commercial banks .
Find out we concludes that the Islamic Banks needs to increase the ca
... Show MoreThis study aimed to determine obesity level of some population in Baghdad by using Bio-electrical impedance analysis (BIA) and compared with anthropometric measurements such as body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR). Statistical analysis results of linear correlation coefficients for obesity indicators showed that BIA correlation 0.92 was most significant and reliable for obesity measurement.
Results of BIA method for age group 20-29 years showed that 44.4% of females were healthy body while 37.8% of males suffer from increased body fat. Results of age group 30-39 year showed that 32.6 of females were in healthy body and 42% of males were obese. In case age group 40-4
... Show MoreMedia and communication's research are varied in accordance to research approaches' variety which seeks to reach convergent social, psycholo
... Show MoreOne of the most frightening to children ages pre-school entry , Are those concerns about natural phenomena such as (The darkness, the sound of thunder, lightning and light, and rainfall, and storms) These natural phenomena are not familiar to the child , It may have a surprise when he/ she sees , And others intimidated , The affects of panic and fears that may lead him some psychological injury symptoms.
The fear of the dark, of the most common concerns associated with the child in his daily life , As the children's fear of the dark is reasonably fear that makes him a natural to live in the unknown , We can not identify what around him and is afraid of something collision, Or injury from somet
... Show MoreThe history of the Olympic movement in Iraq is a rich history that reflects the interest of Iraqi governments and society in sports, the social and economic conditions, and international relations, and highlights the intersection of sports and politics and the impact of global events on local sports development. Therefore, providing a valuable insight into the reality of the participation and results achieved by Iraq in the Olympic Games for the period under study helps in giving a broader understanding of Iraq’s position in the global sports community. The research aims to document the important events in the development of the Olympic movement in Iraq for the period (1929-2000) and explore the formation and development of the Iraqi Olym
... Show MoreThis research after financial ratios in the detection of fraud to the financial statements published which enables specialists from the work of their studies and their conclusions to obtain the information they seek on the activities of the entity. Has provided researchers what these relics They then field study to test the validity and sincerity of the findings of the suggestions that have been upheld the need to study all financial ratios extracted in general, organized and used in decision-making processes necessary administrative.And that the financial management attention more financial analysis and extraction of financial ratios and compare them with industry standards taken from historical norms
The research objective are analyze financial leverage advantage through analyze and discuss financial leverage cost, and achieve tax advantage. study include two firms ,oil firm and industrial companies firm with limited liability.The inductive method is used for the applied part in analyzing the financial data of the companies considered in 2011-2015.The result of the study shows that the financial leverage achieve present value of the costs is Negative . The study concluded that the most important conclusions of the tax advantage of leverage is higher costs as well as achieving a low tax shield ,This study found out the results that interest payments related to pre-tax all of the loan amount and the percentage of the interest rate on b
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