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Prediction of Urban Spatial Changes Pattern Using Markov Chain

Urban land uses of all kinds are the constituent elements of the urban spatial structure. Because of the influence of economic and social factors, cities in general are characterized by the dynamic state of their elements over time. Urban functions occur in a certain way with different spatial patterns. Hence, urban planners and the relevant urban management teams should understand the future spatial pattern of these changes by resorting to quantitative models in spatial planning. This is to ensure that future predictions are made with a high level of accuracy so that appropriate strategies can be used to address the problems arising from such changes. The Markov chain method is one of the quantitative models used in spatial planning to analyze time series based on current values to predict the series values in the future without relying on the past or historical values of the studied series. The research questions in this study are formulated thus: What are the trends in the patterns of urban land use functions in Al-Najaf, Iraq, between 2005 to 2015? How can the values of the changes be predicted for the year 2025? The hypothesis is based on the increasing spatial functional change of land use patterns in the city during the study period due to various economic and social factors. Making accurate predictions of the size of spatial changes motivates this study as a guide to urban management towards developing possible solutions to address the effects of this change, as well as the need to understand its causes and future upward trends. The contribution of this article is the presented outlook for spatial functions for the next 10 years. The computations using the Markov chain model will enable management to understand future relations and develop appropriate policies to reduce the hazards of unplanned changes in the city. Results show that residential posts, slums, and commercial activities are getting worse, while change values for industrial functions and other things are going down. 

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
8th Engineering And 2nd International Conference For College Of Engineering – University Of Baghdad: Coec8-2021 Proceedings
Applications of ecological theory in the urban environment

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Evaluation of antibacterial effect of irrigant solutions (titanium tetra fluoride, green tea, sodium hypochlorite, normal saline) using real-time quantitative – polymerase chain reaction

Background: Removal of bacteria from the pulp system by instrumentation of an infected root canal, will be significantly reduced the number of bacteria, but it is well documented that instrumentation alone can-not clean and kill all bacteria found on the root canal walls. Antibacterial irrigants are needed to kill the remaining microorganisms. The aims of this study was to assess antibacterial effect of titanium tetrafluoride (TiF4) solution and brewing green tea against root canal bacteria and to compare with sodium hypochlorite and normal saline through microbiological and molecular studies. Materials and methods: Microbiological study was carried out to determine the concentration of titanium tetrafluoride and brewing green tea at which

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 04 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Regulations of changes in Sharia policy

Regulations of changes in Sharia policy

Variables include jurisprudential rulings that may be subject to change, alteration and interpretation, depending on the mujtahid’s view of the ruling, or changing it and switching to another view, and the variables are the crucial issues that befell the nation of Islam. It was not neglected by Islamic legislation, but rather the setting of controls that took into account in every incident the norms, interests and purposes.

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering/
Water quality assessment and total dissolved solids prediction using artificial neural network in Al-Hawizeh marsh south of Iraq

The Iraqi marshes are considered the most extensive wetland ecosystem in the Middle East and are located in the middle and lower basin of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers which create a wetlands network and comprise some shallow freshwater lakes that seasonally swamped floodplains. Al-Hawizeh marsh is a major marsh located east of Tigris River south of Iraq. This study aims to assess water quality through water quality index (WQI) and predict Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) concentrations in Al-Hawizeh marsh based on artificial neural network (ANN). Results showed that the WQI was more than 300 for years 2013 and 2014 (Water is unsuitable for drinking) and decreased within the range 200-300 in years 2015 and 2016 (Very poor water). The

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Water Quality Assessment and Total Dissolved Solids Prediction using Artificial Neural Network in Al-Hawizeh Marsh South of Iraq

The Iraqi marshes are considered the most extensive wetland ecosystem in the Middle East and are located in the middle and lower basin of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers which create a wetlands network and comprise some shallow freshwater lakes that seasonally swamped floodplains. Al-Hawizeh marsh is a major marsh located east of Tigris River south of Iraq. This study aims to assess water quality through water quality index (WQI) and predict Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) concentrations in Al-Hawizeh marsh based on artificial neural network (ANN). Results showed that the WQI was more than 300 for years 2013 and 2014 (Water is unsuitable for drinking) and decreased within the range 200-300 in years 2015 and 2016 (Very poor water). The develope

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 28 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The spatial analysis of Yamama Formation heterogeneity in south of Iraq

This study focuses on determining the heterogeneity of Yamama Formation and its spatial distribution in south of Iraq using three indices namely, Coefficient of Variation, Lorenz Coefficient, and Dykstra – Parsons Coefficient. The porosity and permeability values from eleven wells in south of Iraq (Basra and Maysan oil fields) are used for computing heterogeneity indices. Ordinary kriging technique is used to interpolate the computed indices and to show the spatial distribution of these indices over the study area. Results indicated that the average values of Lorenz and Dykstra – Parsons Indices are 0.73 and 0.86, respectively which refer to the extremely heterogeneity nature of Yamama Formation in the study area.The spatial distribu

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Succession of Urban Structures of the City of Baghdad

The research shed light on the historic evolution of Baghdad through its long, expansive history. The starting point focuses on the geographic characteristics, and the nature of its habitation, prior to laying the circular plan of Baghdad. Then the research proceeds to cover the stage of building the round city of Baghdad. The research continue to cover the expansion and sequential growth across the banks of Tigris river.
A concentrated attention is devoted to analyses the morphological, geographical and above all the makeup of present day city of Baghdad, pinpointing the apathetic plans, decisions, and actions which completely disfigured the image, and tradition of the old city of Baghdad, behind the delusive slogans of “comprehens

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Effect of Fluorine and Hydrogen Concentrations on the Chain Reaction of HF Chemical Laser

A numerical investigation has been performed to examine the effect of fluorine concentration on the chain reaction mechanisms and parameters of hydrogen fluoride (HF) chemical laser. The practical difficulties associated with this type of lasers impose that an alternative route might be quite useful. Thus, particular attention was paid to develop a computer program to investigate various processes. The results of this computer simulation program proved their credibility when compared with the little published data. This computer program is called Reaction Rate Simulation Model (RRSM). An entirely new approach to emulate the reaction mechanisms has been followed. The effectiveness of reaction rates in the processes of HF lase

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimation Multivariate data points in spatial statistics with application

This paper  deals  to how to estimate points non measured spatial data when the number of its terms (sample spatial) a few, that are not preferred for the estimation process, because we also know that whenever if the data is large, the estimation results of the points non measured to be better and thus the variance estimate less, so the idea of this paper is how to take advantage of the data other secondary (auxiliary), which have a strong correlation with the primary data (basic) to be estimated single points of non-measured, as well as measuring the variance estimate, has been the use of technique Co-kriging in this field to build predictions spatial estimation process, and then we applied this idea to real data in th

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 20 2018
Journal Name
Al-academy
Spatial transformations and visual construction in the contemporary theater

The current research deals with the subject of spatial transformations and visual construction in contemporary theater. How the visual system works to create spatial diversity in the contemporary Iraqi theater performance and how visual construction contributes to a spatial development process capable of building a tourism system that creates an architectural architecture that leaves the topography of the scriptural architecture. And the production of various indications and patterns in the scene of theatrical presentation in order to produce the new foundational meaning by creating a new structure that leads to diversity and diversity in the visual system and the beginning of visual constructions and their applications. Knowledge and te

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