يحتل النفط مكانة هامة وجوهرية ضمن اقتصاديات العالم، حيث إنه يمثل سلعة استراتيجية عالمية ومادة أولية أساسية في الصناعات الكيميائية والبتروكيميائية، كما أنه متعدد الاستعمالات، سواء في الصناعة أو الزراعة، بالإضافة إلى استعمالاته في الحياة اليومية للإنسان، مما جعله ذا مكانة مهمة ضمن أطر التجارة الدولية وموقع خاص في تشكيل الخريطة الاقتصادية للعالم. وقد جاء هذا البحث ليسلط الضوء على استراتيجيات منظمة الأوبك لضبط أسعار النفط العالمية وأثرها على استقرار الاقتصاد العراقي، هذا الاقتصاد الريعي الذي يعتمد بشكل رئيسي على عائدات النفط، فيتأثر إيجابًا بارتفاع سعر برميل النفط وينتعش، ويتأثر سلبًا بانخفاض أسعار النفط لدرجة قد يواجه معها عجزًا كبيرًا في الميزانية الاتحادية. وعلى الرغم من الأهمية البالغة التي يلعبها النفط بالنسبة للدول المصدرة والمستوردة، إلا أن أسعاره ما انفكت تتقلب بين الحين والآخر، الأمر الذي ينعكس سلبًا على الاقتصاد العالمي بشكل عام، والاقتصاد العراقي بشكل خاص. وقد تم البحث في مدى تأثير آليات واستراتيجيات منظمة الأوبك لضبط أسعار النفط العالمية، المتمثلة في استراتيجية خفض سعر برميل النفط، وكذلك اتباع استراتيجية أخرى وهي خفض الإنتاج. وكان للاستراتيجيتين تأثير واضح على استقرار الاقتصاد العراقي، حيث تشكل عائدات النفط الرافد الرئيسي لإيرادات الدولة لتمويل الموازنة العامة. وقد تبين من خلال البحث أن الاقتصاد العراقي يبقى اقتصادًا ريعيًا ما لم يتم تطوير القطاعات الصناعية والزراعية لتنويع مصادر العملة الصعبة.
The study aims to clarify the impact of growth in the industrial sector on economic growth in the Iraqi economics according to the methodology of Kaldor for (2017-2030) , taking into consideration the effect of the accumulation of capital in the calculation of growth rates in the economy through productivity estimate of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) to growth in the economy, which is why the study assumes a formula to comply with the laws of Kaldor growth models developed requirements. This study is the most important to find out the development of the laws of Kaldor among Arabic studies, especially the first and third, so that the relationship between the growth of industrial production and economic growth as represented
... Show MoreThe study investigates the relationship between the volatility of the Iraqi Stock Exchange Index (ISX), and the volatility of global oil prices benchmarks, Brent and West Intermediate Texas (WTI), in additional to the Iraqi Oil, Basra Crude Light (BSL) which represents the most exported Iraqi oil and the major influential factor on the Iraqi governmental revenues. Using monthly data covering the period: 1/2005-12/1205, econometrical and technical tools represented by Co-incretion, Vector Error Correction Model – VECM, Granger Causality, and Bollinger band were employed in order to explore the relationship between the variables.
The econometric analysis revealed the impact of the oil prices volatility on
... Show MoreBanking reforms in many countries have focused on the efficiency enhance of the banking sector, including Iraq, in terms of indicative steps based on recommendations, policies and standards developed by international organizations, foremost of which are Basel III. In this paper, it has tried to highlight the reforms in Basel III and the impact of these reforms on the stability of the banking system in Iraq. As the research derives its importance from the idea that the sound banking system consists of a group of banks capable of employing their assets and obligations efficiently in financial intermediation and enjoying financial solvency. The stability of the banking system is an important factor in achieving the leading role of t
... Show MoreFacing the Iraqi economy, a number of economic challenges that threaten the future of Iraq and the security of economic, political and social, such as poverty, unemployment, inflation and the dilapidated infrastructure and rising production costs and administrative and financial corruption, environmental pollution, water problems and the deterioration of agricultural and industrial production, etc., and over the seriousness of these challenges, they are intertwined and overlapping and growing worse, without the corresponding adoption of state strategies that will develop appropriate solutions and appropriate to resolve those challenges because of concern the subject of security and terrorism, which requires the development of an
... Show MoreThe concept of tolerance is gaining its importance in the midst of an international society suffering from violence, wars and internal and international crises. It is practiced by extremist and extremist forces and movements acting in the name of religion to exclude the different Muslim and non-Muslim people according to the unethical practices and methodologies of Islamic law and reality. , Cultural, civilization .. that distinguish our world today. The society today is suffering from the ideas of the intellectual and aesthetic views of the different ideologically, ethnically, culturally and religiously in the world of the South. This is what the end-of-history thesis of Fukuyama and the clash of civilizations represented to Huntington.
... Show MoreThe achievement of world peace is a humanitarian demand that humanity has sought since its existence. Despite the international and regional efforts to achieve this demand, it is still reaching its desired ambitions if conflicts, contradictions, and internal and external wars continue to justify us clearly in terms of ethnic, religious and sectarian conflict. The revolution of informatics and the impact of globalization opened a new era of communication and openness and the negative and positive impact of others, which re-published and distributed values, ideas and new cultures Some of them carries extremist ideas urging violence and destruction and other abolition, it became necessary to follow policies and reward The culture of peace,
... Show MoreIn this paper, the topic of forecasting the changes in the value of Iraqi crude oil exports for the period from 2019 to 2025, using the Markov transitional series based on the data of the time series for the period from January 2011 to November 2018, is real data obtained from the published data of the Central Agency Of the Iraqi statistics and the Iraqi Ministry of Oil that the results reached indicate stability in the value of crude oil exports according to the data analyzed and listed in the annex to the research.
Keywords: Using Markov chains
Man has a great role in the development of society in all fields, and therefore the human thought played a great role in its continuous pursuit and insight into the social classes that differ in their privileges, which makes the members of society not reconcile because of that disparity that is not based on human principles, so one class exploits another, and this is what stopped me Rather, it prompted me to choose the topic (class and its impact on society) in order to show the impact of classes on each other negatively and positively, so I work to avoid the first with the recommendations I put forward and offer guidance, and strengthen the second, and after this topic of necessity in a place because of the imbalance and promise of appr
... Show Moreتعرض الاقتصاد العراقي إلى صدمات نقدية شديدة بسبب الظروف السياسية والاقتصادية غير المستقرة والمتمثلة بشكل أساسي لخوض العراق حرب طويلة الأمد مع إيران في الثمانينات وحربين مدمرتين مع الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية فضلاً عن فرض الحصار الاقتصادي طيلة ثلاثة عشر عاما ً .
وتهدف هذه الدراسة إلى قياس وتحليل الصدمات النقدية التي تعرض لها الاقتصاد العراقي في فترة الثمانينات والتسعينات وبداية هذا القر
... Show MoreAbstract:
The objective of this study, is to attempt to explain the reality of the Structural Imbalances in the Iraqi Economy during the period of research, by providing a quantitative analysis of the most important types of Imbalances, Which are represented by the disruption in the Productive Structure, the imbalance of the structure of Public Budget, and the imbalance of the Structure of Trade. The problem of the research, is the fact that the economy structure in Iraq has long suffered from an Imbalances in its economic structure, which are represented in the unequal relations between its constituent elements, according to the proportions levels defined by the economic theory.
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