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Hybrid Modeling of Currency Circulation Volatility: Evidence from the Central Bank of Iraq
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The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 13 2023
Journal Name
World Academy Of Sciences Journal
Potential effects of miR‑146 expression in relation to malondialdehyde as a biomarker for oxidative damage in patients with breast cancer
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Forensic Medicine And Toxicology
Continuous Flow Injection Analysis,Turbidmetric and Photometric Determination of Methyldopa Using a New Long Distance Chasing Photometer (NAG-ADF-300-2)
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A specific, sensitive and new simple method was used for the determination of methyldopa in pure and pharmaceutical formulations by using continuous flow injection analysis. This method is based on formation of ion pair compound between methyldopa and potassium hexacyanoferrate in acidic medium to obtain a yellow precipitate complex using long distance chasing photometer (NAG-ADF-300-2). The linear range for calibration graph was 0.05-35 mmol/L for cell A and 0.05-25 mmol/L for cell B, and LOD 1.4292 µg /200 µL for both cells with correlation coefficient (r) 0.9981 for cell A and 0.9994 for cell B, RSD% was lower than 0.5 % for n=8 for. The results were compared with classical method UV-Spectrophotometric at λ max=280 nm and turbi

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Chemical-Free Greywater Treatment Using Aeration, Sedimentation, Followed by Granular Activated Carbon Filter (GAC) -A Case Study of Baghdad city household
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Greywater is a possible water source that can be improved for meeting the quality required for irrigation. Treatment of greywater can range from uncomplicated coarse filtration to advanced biological treatment. This article presents a simple design of a small scale greywater treatment plant, which is a series of physical and natural processes including screening, aeration, sedimentation, and filtration using granular activated carbon filter and differentiates its performance with sand filter. The performance of these units with the dual filter media of (activated carbon with sand) in treatment of greywater from Iraqi house in Baghdad city during 2019 and that collected from several points including washbasins, kitchen si

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 29 2020
Journal Name
Advances In Rheumatology
Neutrophil/lymphocyte and platelet/lymphocyte ratios as potential markers of disease activity in patients with Ankylosing spondylitis: a case-control study
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Abstract<sec> <title>Background

The neutrophil/ lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR) have the potential to be inflammatory markers that reflect the activity of many inflammatory diseases. The aim of this study was to evaluate the NLR and PLR as potential markers of disease activity in patients with ankylosing spondylitis.

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The study involved 132 patients with ankylosing spondylitis and 81 healthy controls matched in terms of age and gender. Their sociodemographic data, disease activity scores using the Bath Ankylosing

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 18 2023
Journal Name
Research On Chemical Intermediates
Effectual and rapid synthesis of bis(pyrazolyl)methanes and pyrazolopyranopyrimidines catalyzed by nano-[TSPSED][Cl]2 and investigating their biological activity
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This investigation reports application of a mesoporous nanomaterial based on dicationic ionic liquid bonded to amorphous silica, namely nano-N,N,N′,N′-tetramethyl-N-(silican-propyl)-N′-sulfo-ethane-1,2-diaminium chloride (nano-[TSPSED][Cl]2), as an extremely effectual and recoverable catalyst for the generation of bis(pyrazolyl)methanes and pyrazolopyranopyrimidines in solvent-free conditions. In both synthetic protocols, the performance of this catalyst was very useful and general and presented attractive features including short reaction times with high yields, reasonable turnover frequency and turnover number values, easy workup, high performance under mild conditions, recoverability and reusability in 5 consecutive runs without lo

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2020
Journal Name
Biochemical And Cellular Archives
Immunohistochemical evaluation of epidermal growth factor expression in skin wound treated by capparis spinosa flavonoid extract in alloxan induced diabetes rats
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In diabetes, impaired wound healing and other tissue abnormalities are considered major concerns. Many factorsaffect the time and quality of wound healing. One of the purposes of medical sciences is wound healing in a short time withreduced side effects. The herbal products are more precious in both prophylaxis as well as curative in delayed diabetic woundhealing activity when compared to synthetic drugs.A wide range of evidence has shown that capers plant possesses differentbiological effects, including antioxidant, anticancer and antibacterial effects. Phytochemical analysis shows thatC. spinosahashigh quantities of bioactive constituents, including polyphenolic compounds, which are responsible for its health-promotingeffects. The healing

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 30 2025
Journal Name
International Journal Of Transport Development And Integration
Sustainable Traffic Management Strategies for Congested Intersections: Multi-Criteria Assessment of Al-Sa’a Intersection and Al-Jari Street in Hit City
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The study aims to evaluate sustainable traffic management strategies for congested intersections in medium-sized Iraqi cities, with a focus on Al-Sa’a Intersection and Al-Jari Street in Hit City. These nodes face severe traffic congestion, delays, and infrastructure limitations that compromise urban mobility and sustainability. A multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) framework was employed to analyze three categories of interventions—engineering, planning, and administrative—based on five weighted criteria: traffic efficiency (40%), delay reduction (25%), cost (20%), environmental impact (10%), and social acceptance (5%). The methodology combined field data collection (traffic counts, travel time, and delays), GIS-based spatial analysis, an

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 11 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
An Investigation Study of Tool Geometry in Single Point Incremental Forming (SPIF) and their effect on Residual Stresses Using ANOVA Model
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Incremental forming is a flexible sheet metal forming process which is performed by utilizing simple tools to locally deform a sheet of metal along a predefined tool path without using of dies. This work presents the single point incremental forming process for producing pyramid geometry and studies the effect of tool geometry, tool diameter, and spindle speed on the residual stresses. The residual stresses were measured by ORIONRKS 6000 test measuring instrument. This instrument was used with four angles of (0º,15º,30º, and 45º) and the average value of residual stresses was determined, the value of the residual stress in the original blanks was (10.626 MPa). The X-ray diffraction technology was used to measure the residual stresses

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Water Process Engineering
Biochemical performance modelling of non-vegetated and vegetated vertical subsurface-flow constructed wetlands treating municipal wastewater in hot and dry climate
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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Clinical And Experimental Dentistry
Prevalence of periapical lesions in non-endodontically and endodontically treated teeth in an urban Iraqi adult subpopulation: A retrospective CBCT analysis
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