The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
In light of crises, the need for efficient and flexible public administrations to make quick and decisive decisions, also institutions capable of directing the internal elements and components of them and adapting them to the requirements of rapid change due to crises and disasters, which led to scarce resources becoming scarcer and economic, political and social problems becomes more prominent. For the majority of developing countries, including Iraq, the increasing need for the importance of moving towards enhancing the efficiency of the performance of public institutions while trying to predict their future, can only be achieved. Through solid mechanisms and principles of governance that enhance the ability of institutions and make them
... Show MoreSome feline intestinal parasites such as Toxocara, Giardia, and Cryptosporidium can spread to humans through feces. Therefore, it is important to prevent exposure of family members by screening cat fecal samples twice per year for potential treatment regimes. This study was initiated to compare and identify gastrointestinal parasites of domestic and stray cats (Felis domesticus) in Baghdad City, Iraq. Parasite eggs and oocysts were identified under light microscopy by applying standard laboratory techniques (flotation and sedimentation). Overall, 59 of 121 (48.7%) fecal samples were positive for intestinal parasites. The rate of infection by Toxoplasma gondii was (3.31%), Isospora spp. (6.61%), Cryptosporidium spp. (31.4%), and Toxocara spp
... Show MoreThe emergence of COVID-19 has resulted in an unprecedented escalation in different aspects of human activities, including medical education. Students and educators across academic institutions have confronted various challenges in following the guidelines of protection against the disease on one hand and accomplishing learning curricula on the other hand. In this short view, we presented our experience in implementing e-learning to the undergraduate nursing students during the present COVID-19 pandemic emphasizing the learning content, barriers, and feedback of students and educators. We hope that this view will trigger the preparedness of nursing faculties in Iraq to deal with this new modality of learning and improve it should t
... Show MoreStudy of determining the optimal future field development has been done in a sector of South Rumaila oil field/ main pay. The aspects of net present value (economic evaluation) as objective function have been adopted in the present study.
Many different future prediction cases have been studied to determine the optimal production future scenario. The first future scenario was without water injection and the second and third with 7500 surface bbls/day and 15000 surface bbls/day water injection per well, respectively. At the beginning, the runs have been made to 2028 years, the results showed that the optimal future scenario is continuing without water in
Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is one of the most common disease and major cause of morbidity in elderly men which may lead to bladder outflow obstruction and lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS). Although sex steroid hormones play fundamental roles in prostate growth, their clinical significance is not completely clear. In the present study we assessed whether serum hormones levels as markers of prostate disease. This study includes (40) patients with benign prostatic hypertrophy and (40) control group with age rang (41-79) and (42-71) years respectively. The following biochemical investigations have been studied: Testosterone, Estradiol (E2), and Prostatic Specific Antigen (PSA) levels using ELISA method which correlated with t
... Show MoreIn recent years, the attention of researchers has increased of semi-parametric regression models, because it is possible to integrate the parametric and non-parametric regression models in one and then form a regression model has the potential to deal with the cruse of dimensionality in non-parametric models that occurs through the increasing of explanatory variables. Involved in the analysis and then decreasing the accuracy of the estimation. As well as the privilege of this type of model with flexibility in the application field compared to the parametric models which comply with certain conditions such as knowledge of the distribution of errors or the parametric models may
... Show MoreBackground: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is
one of the updated challenges facing the whole world.
Objective: To identify the characteristics risk factors that
present in humans to be more liable to get an infection
than others.
Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted for
positively confirmed 35 patients with polymerase chain
reaction in Wasit province at AL-Zahraa Teaching
Hospital from the period of March 13th till April 20th. All
of them full a questionnaire regarded by risk factors and
other comorbidities. Data were analyzed by SPSS version
23 using frequency tables and percentage. For numerical
data, the median, and interquartile range (IQR) were used.
Differences between categoric
Morphological and phonological studies of fungal pathogen infecting alfalfa weevil Hypera postica (Gyllenhal) indicating that infection has been shown to develop along two distinct physiological lines, each culminating in the production of either conidial or resting spores, in host cadavers which are morphologically distinct. The percent of infection and epizootic development appeared to be dependent on host density. Farther evidence to entail proper correlation between conidia and resting spores suggest that these two forms of spores are stages in the development of one pathogen.
The state did not witness the emergence of independent bodies because of the nature of the ruling regimes that were characterized by political tyranny represented by the king at the time, as is the case with Greece and the Greeks and Persia and the Romans and others. As for the Islamic state, which emerged later, it saw the emergence of what looks like independent bodies that we see today, There was the so-called Diwan Al-Hesba and the Ombudsman's Office as an independent body from the Islamic State, which operated independently to support the oppressed and the equitable distribution of financial resources, even though it was headed by well-known governors of justice and honesty. A state in the modern era, many countries, especially in E
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