The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Malicious software (malware) performs a malicious function that compromising a computer system’s security. Many methods have been developed to improve the security of the computer system resources, among them the use of firewall, encryption, and Intrusion Detection System (IDS). IDS can detect newly unrecognized attack attempt and raising an early alarm to inform the system about this suspicious intrusion attempt. This paper proposed a hybrid IDS for detection intrusion, especially malware, with considering network packet and host features. The hybrid IDS designed using Data Mining (DM) classification methods that for its ability to detect new, previously unseen intrusions accurately and automatically. It uses both anomaly and misuse dete
... Show MoreThis research dealt with study of cladistics taxonomy of five species related to the genus Rumex L. and Polygonum L. from family polygonaceae in Iraq by using Mesquite software V.2.75. This research support strongly delimiting the species P. aviculare L. and P. lapathifolia L.as suggested in floras publication while R. dentatus L. is setted in single group whereas R. vesicarius L. and R. conglomeratus Murray were included in the same group. Also, this study involved characteristics of shape, dimensions, color, and ornamentation of seeds and fruits as the seed forms were ranging from lenticular to trigonous. In terms of size calculations, the seeds of R. vesicarius was recorded the higher range (4.0- 4.5) mm in length w
... Show MoreThe polygamy as a social was known before Islam, has kept Islam on this system after it organized and put his controls and conditions, as justice between wives and the ability to alimony, it was not the purpose of satisfying the instinct of man and enjoyment, but his goal nominal than that, because it addresses problems humanity has goals noble, so the pluralism overlap of the fabric of families belonging to governance and benefits for women and men and society, which leads to increased ties of love between people of the same society and thus increases the cohesion and importance of the topic and its association with financial conditions have emerged as needed so you viewed in the second scientific Conference of the Department social Ser
... Show MoreCuring of concrete is the maintenance of a satisfactory moisture content and temperature for a
period of time immediately following placing so the desired properties are developed. Accelerated
curing is advantages where early strength gain in concrete is important. The expose of concrete
specimens to the accelerated curing conditions which permit the specimens to develop a significant
portion of their ultimate strength within a period of time (1-2 days), depends on the method of the
curing cycle.Three accelerated curing test methods are adopted in this study. These are warm water,
autogenous and proposed test methods. The results of this study has shown good correlation
between the accelerated strength especially for
The aim of this research is to explore the time and space distribution of traffic volume demand and investigate its vehicle compositions. The four selected links presented the activity of transportation facilities and different congestion points according to directions. The study area belongs to Al-Rusafa sector in Baghdad city that exhibited higher rate of traffic congestions of working days at peak morning and evening periods due to the different mixed land uses. The obtained results showed that Link (1) from Medical city intersection to Sarafiya intersection, demonstrated the highest traffic volume in both peak time periods morning AM and afternoon PM where the demand exceeds the capacity along the link corridor. Also, higher values f
... Show MoreThe lower Cretaceous sandstones of Zubair and Nahr Umr formations are the main producing reservoirs in Subba oilfield in southern Iraq. Key differences in their petrophysical and depositional attributes exist affecting their reservoir characteristics. The evaluation of well logs and core porosity-permeability data show better reservoir properties in Nahr Formation. The Litho-saturation logs indicate greater thickness of oil-saturated reservoir units for Nahr Unr Formation associated with lower values of shale volume, and higher values of effective porosity. In addition, higher values of permeability for Nahr Umr Formation is suggested by applying porosity-irreducible water saturation cross plot. The reducing reservoir quality of Zub
... Show MoreThe non static chain is always the problem of static analysis so that explained some of theoretical work, the properties of statistical regression analysis to lose when using strings in statistic and gives the slope of an imaginary relation under consideration. chain is not static can become static by adding variable time to the multivariate analysis the factors to remove the general trend as well as variable placebo seasons to remove the effect of seasonal .convert the data to form exponential or logarithmic , in addition to using the difference repeated d is said in this case it integrated class d. Where the research contained in the theoretical side in parts in the first part the research methodology ha
... Show MoreFourier Transform-Infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy was used to analyze gasoline engine oil (SAE 5W20) samples that were exposed to seven different oxidation times (0 h, 24 h, 48 h, 72 h, 96 h, 120 h, and 144 h) to determine the best wavenumbers and wavenumber ranges for the discrimination of the oxidation times. The thermal oxidation process generated oil samples with varying total base number (TBN) levels. Each wavenumber (400–3900 cm−1) and wavenumber ranges identified from the literature and this study were statistically analyzed to determine which wavenumbers and wavenumber ranges could discriminate among all oxidation times. Linear regression was used with the best wavenumbers and wavenumber ranges to predict oxidation time.
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