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A noval SVR estimation of figarch modal and forecasting for white oil data in Iraq
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The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Minar International Journal Of Applied Sciences And Technology
INNOVATE GESTATIONAL AGE ESTIMATION MODEL FOR IRAQI FETUSES BASED ON ULTRASOUND IMAGES MEASUREMENTS
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Imaging by Ultrasound (US) is an accurate and useful modality for the assessment of gestational age (GA), estimation fetal weight, and monitoring the fetal growth during pregnancy, is a routine part of prenatal care, and that can greatly impact obstetric management. Estimation of GA is important in obstetric care, making appropriate management decisions requires accurate appraisal of GA. Accurate GA estimation may assist obstetricians in appropriately counseling women who are at risk of a preterm delivery about likely neonatal outcomes, and it is essential in the evaluation of the fetal growth and detection of intrauterine growth restriction. There are many formulas are used to estimate fetal GA in the world, but it's not specify fo

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Electrical And Computer Engineering (ijece)
Channel state information estimation for reconfigurable intelligent surfaces based on received signal analysis
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<p>Recently, reconfigurable intelligent surfaces have an increasing role to enhance the coverage and quality of mobile networks especially when the received signal level is very weak because of obstacles and random fluctuation. This motivates the researchers to add more contributions to the fields of reconfigurable intelligent surfaces (RIS) in wireless communications. A substantial issue in reconfigurable intelligent surfaces is the huge overhead for channel state information estimation which limits the system’s performance, oppressively. In this work, a newly proposed method is to estimate the angle of arrival and path loss at the RIS side and then send short information to the base station rather than huge overhe

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Nonparametric Control Charts Estimation Using Hybrid Cyber-Intelligence Algorithms for Stock Market Monitoring
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This paper introduces a novel nonparametric hybrid cyber-intelligence-based statistical process control and anomaly detection framework in time series data. It is developed to overcome the shortcomings of the classical control schemes in dealing with complex, abnormal, and noisy input data, especially when it is autocorrelated. The proposed methodology combines three technical pillars: First, it utilizes a bidirectional long-short-term memory architecture (Bi-LSTM) to capture long-term time dependency and learn nonlinear patterns, leaving only true deviations as residuals that remove trends and noises from the market. Second, it adopts the Golden Eagle Optimizer (GEO) algorithm for optimal parameter selection. This intelligent algor

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 06 2013
Journal Name
Eng. & Tech. Journal
A proposal to detect computer worms (malicious codes) using data mining classification algorithms
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Malicious software (malware) performs a malicious function that compromising a computer system’s security. Many methods have been developed to improve the security of the computer system resources, among them the use of firewall, encryption, and Intrusion Detection System (IDS). IDS can detect newly unrecognized attack attempt and raising an early alarm to inform the system about this suspicious intrusion attempt. This paper proposed a hybrid IDS for detection intrusion, especially malware, with considering network packet and host features. The hybrid IDS designed using Data Mining (DM) classification methods that for its ability to detect new, previously unseen intrusions accurately and automatically. It uses both anomaly and misuse dete

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2012
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
REMOTE SENSING MONITORING OF CHANGES IN SOIL POLLUTION A CASE STUDY IN A REGION IN BAGHDAD, IRAQ
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One of the main environmental problems which affect extensively the areas in the world is soil salinity. Traditional data collection methods are neither enough for considering this important environmental problem nor accurate for soil studies. Remote sensing data could overcome most of these problems. Although satellite images are commonly used for these studies, however there are still needs to find the best calibration between the data and real situations in each specified area. Landsat satellite (TM & ETM+) images have been analyzed to study soil pollution (Exacerbation of salinity in the soil without the use of abandoned agricultural for a long time) at west of Baghdad city of Iraqi country for the years 1990, 2001 & 2007. All of the th

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 21 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Estimation of Traffic Volumes Distribution of Urban Streets in Baghdad City
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The aim of this research is to explore the time and space distribution of traffic volume demand and investigate its vehicle compositions. The four selected links presented the activity of transportation facilities and different congestion points according to directions. The study area belongs to Al-Rusafa sector in Baghdad city that exhibited higher rate of traffic congestions of working days at peak morning and evening periods due to the different mixed land uses. The obtained results showed that Link (1) from Medical city intersection to Sarafiya intersection, demonstrated the highest traffic volume in both peak time periods morning AM and afternoon PM where the demand exceeds the capacity along the link corridor. Also, higher values f

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 19 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Effects of Diode Laser 940 nm with and without 5 % Sodium Fluoride White Varnish with Tri-calcium Phosphate on Dentin Permeability (In vitro study)
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It is found that hypersensitive teeth have a larger number and wider patent tubules than those of non-sensitive teeth. Objective: The aim of this study is to compare between the effects of diode laser at different power densities, with and without sodium fluoride on the sealing of exposed dentinal tubules and dentin permeability. Materials and methods: 118 teeth were used. Samples were divided into three major groups. The first consisted of 100 teeth used for permeability test. The second consisted of 16 teeth for measuring external surface temperature elevation while irradiation. The third, in turn, consisted of one pair of teeth observed under SEM for dentine surface morphology analysis. Results: For dentin permeability measurement, th

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Estimating the Parameters of Exponential-Rayleigh Distribution for Progressively Censoring Data with S- Function about COVID-19
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The two parameters of Exponential-Rayleigh distribution were estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method (MLE) for progressively censoring data. To find estimated values for these two scale parameters using real data for COVID-19 which was taken from the Iraqi Ministry of Health and Environment, AL-Karkh General Hospital. Then the Chi-square test was utilized to determine if the sample (data) corresponded with the Exponential-Rayleigh distribution (ER). Employing the nonlinear membership function (s-function) to find fuzzy numbers for these parameters estimators. Then utilizing the ranking function transforms the fuzzy numbers into crisp numbers. Finally, using mean square error (MSE) to compare the outcomes of the survival

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2024
Journal Name
Alexandria Engineering Journal
Comparison of some Bayesian estimation methods for type-I generalized extreme value distribution with simulation
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The Weibull distribution is considered one of the Type-I Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, and it plays a crucial role in modeling extreme events in various fields, such as hydrology, finance, and environmental sciences. Bayesian methods play a strong, decisive role in estimating the parameters of the GEV distribution due to their ability to incorporate prior knowledge and handle small sample sizes effectively. In this research, we compare several shrinkage Bayesian estimation methods based on the squared error and the linear exponential loss functions. They were adopted and compared by the Monte Carlo simulation method. The performance of these methods is assessed based on their accuracy and computational efficiency in estimati

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2020
Journal Name
Travel Medicine And Infectious Disease
Incidence of the COVID-19 in Iraq – Implications for travellers
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