The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
By driven the moment estimator of ARMA (1, 1) and by using the simulation some important notice are founded, From the more notice conclusions that the relation between the sign and moment estimator for ARMA (1, 1) model that is: when the sign is positive means the root gives invertible model and when the sign is negative means the root gives invertible model. An alternative method has been suggested for ARMA (0, 1) model can be suitable when
This article describes how to predict different types of multiple reflections in pre-track seismic data. The characteristics of multiple reflections can be expressed as a combination of the characteristics of primary reflections. Multiple velocities always come in lower magnitude than the primaries, this is the base for separating them during Normal Move Out correction. The muting procedure is applied in Time-Velocity analysis domain. Semblance plot is used to diagnose multiples availability and judgment for muting dimensions. This processing procedure is used to eliminate internal multiples from real 2D seismic data from southern Iraq in two stages. The first is conventional Normal Move Out correction and velocity auto picking and
... Show MoreCuring of concrete is the maintenance of a satisfactory moisture content and temperature for a
period of time immediately following placing so the desired properties are developed. Accelerated
curing is advantages where early strength gain in concrete is important. The expose of concrete
specimens to the accelerated curing conditions which permit the specimens to develop a significant
portion of their ultimate strength within a period of time (1-2 days), depends on the method of the
curing cycle.Three accelerated curing test methods are adopted in this study. These are warm water,
autogenous and proposed test methods. The results of this study has shown good correlation
between the accelerated strength especially for
Because the Coronavirus epidemic spread in Iraq, the COVID-19 epidemic of people quarantined due to infection is our application in this work. The numerical simulation methods used in this research are more suitable than other analytical and numerical methods because they solve random systems. Since the Covid-19 epidemic system has random variables coefficients, these methods are used. Suitable numerical simulation methods have been applied to solve the COVID-19 epidemic model in Iraq. The analytical results of the Variation iteration method (VIM) are executed to compare the results. One numerical method which is the Finite difference method (FD) has been used to solve the Coronavirus model and for comparison purposes. The numerical simulat
... Show MoreOne of the main environmental problems which affect extensively the areas in the world is soil salinity. Traditional data collection methods are neither enough for considering this important environmental problem nor accurate for soil studies. Remote sensing data could overcome most of these problems. Although satellite images are commonly used for these studies, however there are still needs to find the best calibration between the data and real situations in each specified area. Landsat satellite (TM & ETM+) images have been analyzed to study soil pollution (Exacerbation of salinity in the soil without the use of abandoned agricultural for a long time) at west of Baghdad city of Iraqi country for the years 1990, 2001 & 2007. All of the th
... Show MoreBackground: Medicinal plants that possess antimicrobial and antioxidant properties have garnered significant attention for their role in maintaining food quality, improving safety, and impeding spoilage. They also can aid in controlling food contamination risks and augmenting the nutritional value of foods. Objective: The study aimed to obtain botanical extracts possessing antimicrobial capabilities and use them to inhibit the growth of molds and yeasts. Additionally, these extracts are aimed at prolonging product shelf life by harnessing their antioxidant attributes. Methods: Several microorganisms, including E. coli and Pseudomonas, were subjected to testing. Ethanolic alcohol, chloroform, and essential oil extracts were prepared;
... Show MoreThe Weibull distribution is considered one of the Type-I Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, and it plays a crucial role in modeling extreme events in various fields, such as hydrology, finance, and environmental sciences. Bayesian methods play a strong, decisive role in estimating the parameters of the GEV distribution due to their ability to incorporate prior knowledge and handle small sample sizes effectively. In this research, we compare several shrinkage Bayesian estimation methods based on the squared error and the linear exponential loss functions. They were adopted and compared by the Monte Carlo simulation method. The performance of these methods is assessed based on their accuracy and computational efficiency in estimati
... Show MoreThis study aims to preparation a standards code for sustainability requirements to contribute in a better understanding to the concept of sustainability assessment systems in the dimensions of Iraqi projects in general and in the high-rise building. Iraq is one of the developing countries that faced significant challenges in sustainability aspects environmental, economic and social, it became necessary to develop an effective sustainability building assessment system in respect of the local context in Iraq. This study presented a proposal for a system of assessing the sustainability requirements of Iraqi high rise buildings (ISHTAR), which has been developed through several integrated
Investment Bases directly and closely to an environment characterized by political, social and economic stability, and through a range of policies and institutions and economic laws that affect investor confidence and convince him directing investments to country without the other, where inter conditions and circumstances affecting the trends of capital and settle in, and political situation of the country and what is characterized of stability or disorder as well as economic conditions that are affected by what is distinguishes the country from geographic and demographic characteristics are reflected on availability of production elements and country's infrastructure.
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