The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Imaging by Ultrasound (US) is an accurate and useful modality for the assessment of gestational age (GA), estimation fetal weight, and monitoring the fetal growth during pregnancy, is a routine part of prenatal care, and that can greatly impact obstetric management. Estimation of GA is important in obstetric care, making appropriate management decisions requires accurate appraisal of GA. Accurate GA estimation may assist obstetricians in appropriately counseling women who are at risk of a preterm delivery about likely neonatal outcomes, and it is essential in the evaluation of the fetal growth and detection of intrauterine growth restriction. There are many formulas are used to estimate fetal GA in the world, but it's not specify fo
... Show MoreThis paper interest to estimation the unknown parameters for generalized Rayleigh distribution model based on censored samples of singly type one . In this paper the probability density function for generalized Rayleigh is defined with its properties . The maximum likelihood estimator method is used to derive the point estimation for all unknown parameters based on iterative method , as Newton – Raphson method , then derive confidence interval estimation which based on Fisher information matrix . Finally , testing whether the current model ( GRD ) fits to a set of real data , then compute the survival function and hazard function for this real data.
The global oil market is one of the most important markets in the world and occupies especially for countries consuming and producing countries, and the status of understanding of the mechanism for determining prices in the market help to stand on many factors affecting oil demand and supply of oil and geopolitical factors, climate and alternative sources of energy .. etc. factors, and that the main objective of the research is to study the causes and results left behind by the oil price shocks in the world market, and the movement of these factors be through a cycle of energy that explain the strength of competition between these factors and their effects on prices, when demand increases evolution Large image leads to significan
... Show MoreOne of the most important features of American foreign activity during the second half of the 19th century was the encouragement of sending Protestant missionary missions to all countries around the world. The mission of these missions was facilitated by the weakened state of the Ottoman Empire, the increasing influence of European countries, and their interference in its internal affairs. Despite the Ottoman efforts to counter the activities of these missions, the American missionary missions adopted a well-planned strategy that suited the conditions of the region, aimed at achieving their goals through direct and indirect methods, including intervention in the field of education. These missions gave great importance to educational aspects
... Show MoreIt is found that hypersensitive teeth have a larger number and wider patent tubules than those of non-sensitive teeth. Objective: The aim of this study is to compare between the effects of diode laser at different power densities, with and without sodium fluoride on the sealing of exposed dentinal tubules and dentin permeability. Materials and methods: 118 teeth were used. Samples were divided into three major groups. The first consisted of 100 teeth used for permeability test. The second consisted of 16 teeth for measuring external surface temperature elevation while irradiation. The third, in turn, consisted of one pair of teeth observed under SEM for dentine surface morphology analysis. Results: For dentin permeability measurement, th
... Show MoreNutlets of 22 taxa of Stachys (13 species and seven subspecies and two varieties), representing seven of the currently recognized sections distributed in northern Iraq were examined by light microscope. The basic shape of nutlets in most taxa studied is Obovoid, but Oblong also found in S.megalodanta Hausskn.& Bornm. ex P.H.Davis, S.setirefa C.A.Mey. subsp daenensis (Gandog.) Rech.f.and S. kurdica Boiss.& Hohen. var.kurdica, while the Subgloboid shape found in S. iberica M.Bieb. and S. inflata Benth., more over the Broad triangular shape was found in S. nephrophylla Rech.f. and S.lanigera (Bornm.) Rech.f.., the biggest size of nutlets was found in S.inflata L. and the smallest was in S.melampyroides Hand.-Mzt. Regarding sculpturing pa
... Show MoreEverybody is connected with social media like (Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram…etc.) that generate a large quantity of data and which traditional applications are inadequate to process. Social media are regarded as an important platform for sharing information, opinion, and knowledge of many subscribers. These basic media attribute Big data also to many issues, such as data collection, storage, moving, updating, reviewing, posting, scanning, visualization, Data protection, etc. To deal with all these problems, this is a need for an adequate system that not just prepares the details, but also provides meaningful analysis to take advantage of the difficult situations, relevant to business, proper decision, Health, social media, sc
... Show MoreThis article describes how to predict different types of multiple reflections in pre-track seismic data. The characteristics of multiple reflections can be expressed as a combination of the characteristics of primary reflections. Multiple velocities always come in lower magnitude than the primaries, this is the base for separating them during Normal Move Out correction. The muting procedure is applied in Time-Velocity analysis domain. Semblance plot is used to diagnose multiples availability and judgment for muting dimensions. This processing procedure is used to eliminate internal multiples from real 2D seismic data from southern Iraq in two stages. The first is conventional Normal Move Out correction and velocity auto picking and
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