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A noval SVR estimation of figarch modal and forecasting for white oil data in Iraq
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The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 03 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Mechanics Of Continua And Mathematical Sciences
XGBOOST AND COST-SENSITIVE CART FOR IMBALANCED MULTICLASS DIABETES CLASSIFICATION IN IRAQ
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Diabetes imposes a substantial public health burden; according to the International Diabetes Federation, there were about 3.4 million diabetes related deaths worldwide in 2024, and in Iraq, the Federation reports that one in nine adults lives with diabetes in 2024, with 14,683 adult deaths attributable to diabetes and a total diabetes related health expenditure of 2,078 million United States dollars. The dataset analyzed in this study contains 1,000 records collected in 2020 from two Iraqi teaching hospitals and includes multiple clinical and laboratory measurements with three outcome classes, namely Non diabetic, Pre diabetic, and Diabetic, with a low prevalence of the Pre diabetic class and an imbalanced overall class distribution; the da

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 18 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Comparative Study of Heavy Metals and Trace Elements Concentration in Milk Samples Consumed in Iraq
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The measurements of major and trace elements in different brands of milk powder selected from the Iraqis market via the X-ray fluorescence (XRF) Technique have been studied in the present work. The result of the measurements reveals the high concentrations of sodium, phosphorus, sulfur, chlorine, potassium, calcium and magnesium. Furthermore, low concentrations of aluminum, silicon, iron, bromine, molybdenum, iodine, barium, titanium, manganese, cobalt, chrome, nickel, copper, zinc and lead were detected. Neutron activation analysis (NAA) and Kjeldahl technique were also employed to determine the concentrations of nitrogen. It was found that the nitrogen concentration was in the range of (1.96 - 3.23) % which is within the permissible li

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2025
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Insects Infestation for Plants of Fabaceae in Different Areas in Iraq
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Abstract<p>In this study, 191 specimens of insects that infect species of the Fabaceae family, including: <italic>Pisum sativum</italic> L. (1753), <italic>Lens esculenta</italic> Moench (1794) and <italic>Vigna unguiculata</italic> subsp. <italic>sesquipedalis</italic> (L.) Verdc. (1763), <italic>Vicia faba</italic> L. (1753), <italic>Phaseolus vulgaris</italic> L. (1753), <italic>Medicago sativa</italic> L. (1753), <italic>Trifolium campestre</italic> Schreb. (1804), were collected from four governorates: Baghdad, Karbala, Wasit, and Anbar. Four orders, five families, 17 species belonging to 10 genera have been ide</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Sep 15 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The estimation of the viable count of mutans streptococcus in waterpipe smokers and cigarette smokers
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Background: Waterpipe and cigarette are two products of tobacco consumption, tobacco use has detrimental effects on the oral cavity, numerous studies around the world have reported a significant relationship between smoking and increase dental caries and viable count of cariogenic bacteria, Materials and Methods: unstimulated saliva was collected from 84 subjects and divided equally into three groups waterpipe smokers, cigarette smokers, and non-smokers all of the participants are adult male aged between 25-60 years, dental caries was measured by use DMFT index, while S.mutans and S.sobrinus were isolated by using a selective medium SB 20M (Sugar bacitracin-20 modified) agar Results: this present study showed a significant (p≤0.01)

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 25 2018
Journal Name
Oriental Journal Of Chemistry
Estimation of preptin in serum of Thyroid Dysfunction Patients and its Relationship with other Parameters
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The research includes a clinical study of Preptin with other parameters. The normal value of preptin in hypothyroidism (2638.4±280.0) in female while (2960.4±256.6) in male, in hyperthyroidism (589.0±90.1) in male, while in female (993.2±103.9), diabetes (2465.6±282.4) in female, in male (2085.5±282.8), in diabetes & hypothyroidism (3314.3±177.3) in male,(3179.4±265.7) in female, but control group in female (427.8±60.4), in male (384.7±62.4) at age (20-45) years they were divided into five groups: group one (G1) consisted of 30 hypothyroidism. The two group (G2) consisted of 30 patients with hyperthyroidism. And three group (G3) consisted of 30 healthy group, four group (G4) consisted of 30 patient with diabetes, and five group (G

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 15 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Relationship Analysis Between Monetary Policy and Financial Sustainability in Iraq For the Period 2015–2021
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This research aims to study and analyze the reality of monetary policy and financial sustainability in Iraq through either a descriptive or analytical approach by trying to link and coordinate between monetary policy and fiscal policy to enhance economic sustainability. The research is based on the hypothesis that the monetary policy of Iraq contributes to achieving financial stability, which improves economic sustainability by providing aid and assistance to the state to reduce the budget deficit and exacerbate indebtedness. The author used the monetary policy indicators, the re-deduction of Treasury transfers by the central bank and the money supply, and financial sustainability indicators, including the public debt indicators and the

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 27 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Medical And Life Science
Black Francolin (Francolinus Francolinus) in Iraq: A Review
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Publication Date
Sun Jun 15 2025
Journal Name
الذكوات البيض
Drugs in Iraq 1932-1968 (A Historical Study)
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The spread of drugs in Iraq during the period 1932-1968 was one of the most dangerous. phenomena affecting humans, as it leads to addiction, to the point where people cannot live without it, it also leads to the destruction of the user's nerves and body, and the inability to maintain balance, or even perform daily tasks. There are different types of drugs, and the side effects vary from one type to another However in all cases, drugs remain the scourge of the world, They are a toxic substance that attacks the nerves and tries to destroy them' The importance of the subject lies in the fact that it is anew and unstudied topic, and it studies a phenomenon that affects humanity in general and Iraq in Particular through it light can be shed on t

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 31 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
ESTIMATION OF LEAD ELEMENT IN THE BLOOD OF TRAFFIC POLICE IN THE CITY OF BAGHDAD.: ESTIMATION OF LEAD ELEMENT IN THE BLOOD OF TRAFFIC POLICE IN THE CITY OF BAGHDAD.
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The current study aimed to determine the relation between the lead levels in the blood traffic men and the nature of their traffic work in Baghdad governorate. Blood samples were collected from 10 traffic men and the age about from 20-39 year from Directorate of Traffic Al Rusafa/ Baghdad and 10 samples another control from traffic men too with age 30-49 year and they livedrelatively in the clear cities or contained of Very few traffic areas. The levels of lead in blood estimated by used Atomic Absorption Spectrometry.
The result stated that there is no rising of the levels of lead in blood of traffic men Lead concentration was with more a range from 14 ppm in Traffic police are not healthy They are within the permissible limits, Ap

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Naturally occurring radioactive materials and related hazard indices in Ahdeb oil field
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In this work, measurements of activity concentration of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) isotopes and their related hazard indices for several materials such as crude oil, sludge and water in Ahdeb oil fields in Waste governorate using high pure germanium coaxial detection technique. The average values for crude oil samples were174.72Bq/l, 43.46Bq/l, 355.07Bq/l, 264.21Bq/l, 122.52nGy/h, 0.7138, 1.1861, 0.601 mSv/y, 0.1503mSv/y and 1.8361 for Ra-226, Ac-228, K-40, Ra eq, D, H-external and H-internal respectively. According to the results; the ratio between 238U to 232Th was 4, which represents the natural ratio in the crust earth; therefore, one can be strongly suggested that the geo-stricture of the

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