The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Abstract
Oil is considered a commodity and is still an important and prominent role in drawing and shaping the Iraqi economic scene. The revenues generated from the export of oil are considered the main source of the general budget in cash flows.
Since the revenues consist of quantity and price and the latter is an external factor which is difficult to predict, The effect of any commodity on its price, which is proven in the theory of micro-economic, but it is observed through the research that the response is slow, which means not to take advantage of the rise in prices, by increasing the quantity exported, the result of several facto
... Show MoreThis study investigates the application of hydraulic acid fracturing to enhance oil production in the Mishrif Formation of the Al-Fakkah oilfield due to declining flow rates and wellhead pressures resulting from asphaltene deposition and inadequate permeability. Implementing acid fracturing, an established technique for low-permeability carbonate reserves, was essential due to the inadequacy of prior solvent cleaning and acidizing efforts. The document outlines the protocols established prior to and following the treatment, emphasizing the importance of careful oversight to guarantee safety and efficacy. In the MiniFrac treatment, 150 barrels of #30 cross-linked gel were injected at 25 barrels per minute, followed by an overflush wi
... Show MoreThis research dealt with study of cladistics taxonomy of five species related to the genus Rumex L. and Polygonum L. from family polygonaceae in Iraq by using Mesquite software V.2.75. This research support strongly delimiting the species P. aviculare L. and P. lapathifolia L.as suggested in floras publication while R. dentatus L. is setted in single group whereas R. vesicarius L. and R. conglomeratus Murray were included in the same group. Also, this study involved characteristics of shape, dimensions, color, and ornamentation of seeds and fruits as the seed forms were ranging from lenticular to trigonous. In terms of size calculations, the seeds of R. vesicarius was recorded the higher range (4.0- 4.5) mm in length w
... Show MoreThe value of time out as a time not count of official time form the game like four periods and extra time also it considered a great interest if used well thru the game , the importance of this problem is not using well the time out and when the coach ask for time out and how to invest this time legally to make good results also there is no observing system as the researcher see gives the reality image that the coach is successful lead the game when he takes time out . The goals of research that knowing on numbers of time out for excellent teams in Iraq (first &second) stages and putting special inventory reverse reality of asking time out (positive &negative) on playing basketball , the hypothesis of research that tell the time out effect
... Show MoreThe non static chain is always the problem of static analysis so that explained some of theoretical work, the properties of statistical regression analysis to lose when using strings in statistic and gives the slope of an imaginary relation under consideration. chain is not static can become static by adding variable time to the multivariate analysis the factors to remove the general trend as well as variable placebo seasons to remove the effect of seasonal .convert the data to form exponential or logarithmic , in addition to using the difference repeated d is said in this case it integrated class d. Where the research contained in the theoretical side in parts in the first part the research methodology ha
... Show MoreCuring of concrete is the maintenance of a satisfactory moisture content and temperature for a
period of time immediately following placing so the desired properties are developed. Accelerated
curing is advantages where early strength gain in concrete is important. The expose of concrete
specimens to the accelerated curing conditions which permit the specimens to develop a significant
portion of their ultimate strength within a period of time (1-2 days), depends on the method of the
curing cycle.Three accelerated curing test methods are adopted in this study. These are warm water,
autogenous and proposed test methods. The results of this study has shown good correlation
between the accelerated strength especially for
Land snails constitute an important group of mollusks distributed worldwide. This study reports on land snails found in Iraq. A survey of terrestrial gastropods was performed during their activity seasons in gardens, agricultural lands and nurseries in Iraq from March 2022 to September 2023. Fifteen terrestrial snails belonging to seven families were documented. The species Euchondrus michonii (Bourguignat, 1853) was identified and recorded based on several distinct conchological characters for the first time in Iraq. The recently collected specimens, along with those previously recorded in Iraq, were included in this checklist. Essential information on each species is also presented. As there is no previous checklist or study that
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