The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
This research aims to study and analyze the reality of monetary policy and financial sustainability in Iraq through either a descriptive or analytical approach by trying to link and coordinate between monetary policy and fiscal policy to enhance economic sustainability. The research is based on the hypothesis that the monetary policy of Iraq contributes to achieving financial stability, which improves economic sustainability by providing aid and assistance to the state to reduce the budget deficit and exacerbate indebtedness. The author used the monetary policy indicators, the re-deduction of Treasury transfers by the central bank and the money supply, and financial sustainability indicators, including the public debt indicators and the
... Show MoreA sensitivity-turbidimetric method at (0-180o) was used for detn. of mebeverine in drugs by two solar cell and six source with C.F.I.A.. The method was based on the formation of ion pair for the pinkish banana color precipitate by the reaction of Mebeverine hydrochloride with Phosphotungstic acid. Turbidity was measured via the reflection of incident light that collides on the surface particles of precipitated at 0-180o. All variables were optimized. The linearity ranged of Mebeverine hydrochloride was 0.05-12.5mmol.L-1, the L.D. (S/N= 3)(3SB) was 521.92 ng/sample depending on dilution for the minimum concentration , with correlation coefficient r = 0.9966while was R.S.D%
... Show MoreThe metformin drug is anti-hyperglycemia and known to cross the placenta which leads to the fetus during pregnancy .The aim of this study is to define the drug effects in the fetus growth . The doses used , therapeutic dose ( 0.18 & 0.53 ) mg\25g body weight and over dose ( 1.8 & 2.85) mg\ 25g body weight , administrated orally at the beginning organogenesis stage at ( 6 -18 ) day of pregnancy in the morning . A total ( 50 ) animal were divided into five groups .The first group control not treated , 2nd group treated with (0.18) mg , 3rd group with ( 0.53 ) mg , 4th group with ( 1.8 ) mg and 5th group
... Show MoreCharacterized Iraq, being one of the oldest countries where oil was discovered in the Middle East since 1927, and possess a vast oil reserves. In addition, the production and marketing of Iraqi oil continued since 1934 and until the present time. Over the past eight decades, the range of economic benefit of the financial Iraq’s oil resources varied according to the applicable forms of investments in the oil sector in Iraq.
This research included a study
... Show MoreThe unconventional techniques called “the quick look techniques”, have been developed to present well log data calculations, so that they may be scanned easily to identify the zones that warrant a more detailed analysis, these techniques have been generated by service companies at the well site which are among the useful, they provide the elements of information needed for making decisions quickly when time is of essence. The techniques used in this paper are:
- Apparent resistivity Rwa
- Rxo /Rt
The above two methods had been used to evaluate Nasiriyah oil field formations (well-NS-3) to discover the hydrocarbon bearing formations. A compu
... Show MoreThis paper aims to decide the best parameter estimation methods for the parameters of the Gumbel type-I distribution under the type-II censorship scheme. For this purpose, classical and Bayesian parameter estimation procedures are considered. The maximum likelihood estimators are used for the classical parameter estimation procedure. The asymptotic distributions of these estimators are also derived. It is not possible to obtain explicit solutions of Bayesian estimators. Therefore, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and Lindley techniques are taken into account to estimate the unknown parameters. In Bayesian analysis, it is very important to determine an appropriate combination of a prior distribution and a loss function. Therefore, two different
... Show MoreIncreasing hydrocarbon recovery from tight reservoirs is an essential goal of oil industry in the recent years. Building real dynamic simulation models and selecting and designing suitable development strategies for such reservoirs need basically to construct accurate structural static model construction. The uncertainties in building 3-D reservoir models are a real challenge for such micro to nano pore scale structure. Based on data from 24 wells distributed throughout the Sadi tight formation. An application of building a 3-D static model for a tight limestone oil reservoir in Iraq is presented in this study. The most common uncertainties confronted while building the model were illustrated. Such as accurate estimations of cut-off permeab
... Show MoreIncreasing hydrocarbon recovery from tight reservoirs is an essential goal of oil industry in the recent years. Building real dynamic simulation models and selecting and designing suitable development strategies for such reservoirs need basically to construct accurate structural static model construction. The uncertainties in building 3-D reservoir models are a real challenge for such micro to nano pore scale structure. Based on data from 24 wells distributed throughout the Sadi tight formation. An application of building a 3-D static model for a tight limestone oil reservoir in Iraq is presented in this study. The most common uncertainties confronted while building the model were illustrated. Such as accurate estimations of cut-off
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