The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Tourism plays an important role in Malaysia’s economic development as it can boost business opportunity in its surrounding economic. By apply data mining on tourism data for predicting the area of business opportunity is a good choice. Data mining is the process that takes data as input and produces outputs knowledge. Due to the population of travelling in Asia country has increased in these few years. Many entrepreneurs start their owns business but there are some problems such as wrongly invest in the business fields and bad services quality which affected their business income. The objective of this paper is to use data mining technology to meet the business needs and customer needs of tourism enterprises and find the most effective
... Show MoreRecords of two regionalized variables were processed for each of porosity and permeability of reservoir rocks in Zubair Formation (Zb-109) south Iraq as an indication of the most important reservoir property which is the homogeneity,considering their important results in criterion most needed for primary and enhanced oil reservoirs.The results of dispersion treatment,the statistical incorporeal indications,boxes plots,rhombus style and tangents angles of intersected circles indicated by confidence interval of porosity and permeability data, have shown that the reservoir rocks of Zubair units (LS),(1L) and (DJ) have reservoir properties of high quality,in contrast to that of Zubair units (MS) and (AB)which have reservoir properties of less q
... Show MoreStatisticians often use regression models like parametric, nonparametric, and semi-parametric models to represent economic and social phenomena. These models explain the relationships between different variables in these phenomena. One of the parametric model techniques is conic projection regression. It helps to find the most important slopes for multidimensional data using prior information about the regression's parameters to estimate the most efficient estimator. R algorithms, written in the R language, simplify this complex method. These algorithms are based on quadratic programming, which makes the estimations more accurate.
The current world is observing huge developments in presenting the opportunity for organizations and administrative units to use information and communication technology and their adoption by administrative work due to its importance in the achievement of work with higher efficiency, speed, and facility of communication with all individuals and companies using various means of communication Depending on the Internet networks. Therefore, the research dealt with the study of electronic systems designed and adopted in the creation or construction of a database for archiving data, which is the main method in organizations and administrative units in developed countries. Where this system works to convert documents, and manual processes and t
... Show MoreThe current research deals with short term forecasting of demand on Blood material, and its' problem represented by increasing of forecast' errors in The National Center for Blood Transfusion because using inappropriate method of forecasting by Centers' management, represented with Naive Model. The importance of research represented by the great affect for forecasts accuracy on operational performance for health care organizations, and necessity of providing blood material with desired quantity and in suitable time. The literatures deal with subject of short term forecasting of demand with using the time series models in order to getting of accuracy results, because depending these models on data of last demand, that is being sta
... Show MoreIn this paper has been one study of autoregressive generalized conditional heteroscedasticity models existence of the seasonal component, for the purpose applied to the daily financial data at high frequency is characterized by Heteroscedasticity seasonal conditional, it has been depending on Multiplicative seasonal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic Models Which is symbolized by the Acronym (SGARCH) , which has proven effective expression of seasonal phenomenon as opposed to the usual GARCH models. The summarizing of the research work studying the daily data for the price of the dinar exchange rate against the dollar, has been used autocorrelation function to detect seasonal first, then was diagnosed wi
... Show MoreObjecte The study aims to test the effect of using the appropriate quantitative method of demand forecasting in improving the performance of supply chain of the aviation fuel product ( The study sample), One of the products of the Doura refinery (The study site), By testing a set of quantitative methods of demand forecasting using forecasting error measurements, and choosing the least faulty, most accurate and reliable method and adept it in the building chain.
Is the study of problem through a starting with the fol
... Show MoreDetermination of the concentrations of some inorganic elements (Fe, Co, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, Cd) by Flame Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy, Electrothermal Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy, and Inductively Coupled Plasma. and two dangerous organic pollutants (PAH and phenols) by GC and UV in the wastewater of Z.LTF Zafaraniya Leather tanning factory, W.BF Al-Waziriya Battery factory, Ba.WLS Al-Bayaa Wastewater Lifting Station, and some points of Tigris River in Baghdad city taking into consideration the sampling time Varying (two months) and setting the temperature during the drawing of the model. The results of the analysis revealed that the wastewater was contaminated with phenols, PAHs, and metals (Pb, Cd, Cr, Cu) at high rates that exceeded the p
... Show MoreCybersecurity involves protecting computer networks, systems, and data from unauthorized access and disruptions using advanced technologies. The purpose of this research is to establish a novel cyber security framework for strengthening cloud data protection. In this paper, we propose a novel Dung Beetle optimization-redefined Intelligent Random Forest (DB-IRF) for accurate detection of intrusions in a cloud environment. We obtained a dataset that includes cloud system logs and network traffic data, including normal and malicious activities, to train our proposed model. We utilized z-score normalization to pre-process the gathered raw data. Our suggested model enhances classification accuracy by integrating DB optimization with the
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