The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
One of the most important problems in the oil production process and when its continuous flow, is emulsified oil (w/o emulsion), which in turn causes many problems, from the production line to the extended pipelines that are then transported to the oil refining process. It was observed that the nanomaterial (SiO2) supported the separation process by adding it to the emulsion sample and showed a high separation rate with the demulsifiers (RB6000) and (sebamax) where the percentage of separation was greater than (90 and 80 )% respectively, and less than that when dealing with (Sodium dodecyl sulfate and Diethylene glycol), the percentage of separation was (60% and 50%) respectively.
The high proportion
... Show MoreIn 2010, the tomato leaf miner Tuta absoluta (Meyrick, 1917) was reported for the first time in Iraq. The larvae can feed on all parts of tomato plants and can damage all the growth stages. The main host plant is tomato, Lycopersicon esculentum, but it can also attack other plants in Solanaceae family. In this study it was found attacking alfalfa plants, Medicago sativa in Baghdad Province. This finding reveals that alfalfa also serves as a host plant for T. absoluta in Iraq.
Abstract
Coronavirus has affected many people around the world and caused an increase in the number of hospitalized patients and deaths. The prediction factor may help the physician to classify whether the patient needs more medical attention to decrease mortality and worsening of symptoms. We aimed to study the possible relationship between C reactive protein level and the severity of symptoms and its effect on the prognosis of the disease. And determine patients who require closer respiratory monitoring and more aggressive supportive therapies to avoid poor prognosis. The data was gathered using medical record data, the patient's medical history, and the onset of symptoms, as well as a blood sample to test the
... Show MoreSoil invertebrates community an important role as part of essential food chain and responsible for the decomposition in the soil, helps soil aeration , nutrients recycling and increase agricultural production by providing the essential elements necessary for photosynthesis and energy flow in ecosystems.The aim of the present study was to investigate the soil invertebrates community in one of the date palms plantation in Aljaderia district South of Baghdad, , and their relationships with some physical and chemical properties of the soil , as Five randomly distributed replicates of soil samples were collected monthly. Invertebrates samples were sorted from the soil with two methods, direct method to isolate large invertebrates and indirec
... Show MoreEMS in accordance with ISO 14001: 2015 is considered an entry point to reduce environmental impacts, especially the effects resulting from the oil industry, which is the main source of environmental pollution and waste of natural resources, since the second revision of the standard took place in September 2015. The problem of the research was manifested in the weakness in understanding the correct guidelines that must be followed in order to obtain and maintain the standard. The purpose of this research was to give a general picture of what is behind ISO14001:2015 and how it is possible to create a comprehensive base for understanding its application by seeking the gap between the actually achieved reality, standards requirements
... Show MoreThis study examines experimentally the performance of a horizontal triple concentric tube heat exchanger TCTHE made of copper metal using water as cooling fluid and oil-40 as hot fluid. Hot fluid enters the inner annular tube of the TCTHE in a direction at a temperature of 50, 60 and 70 oC and a flow rate of 20 l/hr. On the other hand, the cooling fluid enters the inner tube and the outer annular tube in the reverse direction (counter current flow) at a temperature of 25 oC and flow rates of 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35 l/hr. The TCTHE is composed of three copper tubes with outer diameters of 34.925 mm, 22.25 mm, and 9.525 mm, and thicknesses of 1.27 mm, 1.143 mm, and 0.762 mm, respectively. TCTHE tube's length was 670
... Show MoreThe research specified with study the relation between the market share for the sample research banks and the amount of the achieved revenues from the investment, where the dominated belief that there potentiality enhancing the revenue on investment with the increase of the banks shares in their markets after their success in achieving rates of successive growth in their sales of sales and to a suitable achieve market coverage for their products and they have dissemination and suitable promotion activity, the market share represented the competition for the banks, and the markets pay attention to the market share as a strategic objective and to maintain them also increasi
... Show MoreThe expansion in water projects implementations in Turkey and Syria becomes of great concern to the workers in the field of water resources management in Iraq. Such expansion with the absence of bi-lateral agreement between the three riparian countries of Tigris and Euphrates Rivers; Turkey, Syria and Iraq, is expected to lead to a substantially reduction of water inflow to the territories of Iraq. Accordingly, this study consists of two parts: first part is aiming to study the changes of the water inflow to the territory of Iraq, at Turkey and Syria borders, from 1953 to 2009; the results indicated that the annual mean inflow in Tigris River was decreased from 677 m3/sec to 526 m3/sec, after operating Turkey reserv
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