The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The current research creates an overall relative analysis concerning the estimation of Meixner process parameters via the wavelet packet transform. Of noteworthy presentation relevance, it compares the moment method and the wavelet packet estimator for the four parameters of the Meixner process. In this paper, the research focuses on finding the best threshold value using the square root log and modified square root log methods with the wavelet packets in the presence of noise to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of the denoising process for the financial asset market signal. In this regard, a simulation study compares the performance of moment estimation and wavelet packets for different sample sizes. The results show that wavelet p
... Show MoreAn in-depth experimental study of the matrix effect of antifreeze (ethylene glycol) and water contamination of engine oil through FT-IR spectroscopy. With a comparison of the percent by volume concentration of contaminated fresh 15W-40 engine oil, there appeared to be a noticeable reduction in the O–H stretching signal in the infrared spectrum when ethylene glycol based antifreeze was included as a contaminant. The contaminants of distilled water, a 50/50 mixture of water and commercial ethylene glycol antifreeze, and straight ethylene glycol antifreeze were compared and a signal reduction in the O–H stretch was clearly evident when glycol was present. Doubling the volume of the 50/50 mixture as compared to water alone still res
... Show MoreIn this study, the upgrading of Iraqi heavy crude oil was achieved utilizing the solvent deasphalting approach (SDA) and enhanced solvent deasphalting (e-SDA) by adding Nanosilica (NS). The NS was synthesized from local sand. The XRD result, referred to as the amorphous phase, has a wide peak at 2Θ= (22 - 23º) The inclusion of hydrogen-bonded silanol groups (Si–O–H) and siloxane groups (Si–O–Si) in the FTIR spectra. The SDA process was handled using n-pentane solvent at various solvent to oil ratios (SOR) (4-16/1ml/g), room and reflux temperature, and 0.5 h mixing time. In the e-SDA process, various fractions of the NS (1–7 wt.%) have been utilized with 61 nm particle size and 560.86 m²/g surface area in the presence of 12 m
... Show MoreBackground: The aim of this study is to evaluate the color change ∆E of the dental enamel following treatment with 2 kinds of protector (icon infiltrant, clinpro varnish) before fixed orthodontic treatment to avoid the possible white spot lesions. Materials and Methods: Fifty four subjects treated with fixed appliances were divided into 3 groups: the 1st group was control, while the 2nd and 3rd groups were treated with icon infiltrant and clinpro varnish before bonding procedure, respectively. Color parameters (L,a,b) were recorded for the middle and gingival thirds before and after bonding procedure to get the ∆E of each group. Results: One-way ANOVA test showed a non-significant difference in ∆E between the 3 groups a
... Show MoreOne of the most important problems in the oil production process and when its continuous flow, is emulsified oil (w/o emulsion), which in turn causes many problems, from the production line to the extended pipelines that are then transported to the oil refining process. It was observed that the nanomaterial (SiO2) supported the separation process by adding it to the emulsion sample and showed a high separation rate with the demulsifiers (RB6000) and (sebamax) where the percentage of separation was greater than (90 and 80 )% respectively, and less than that when dealing with (Sodium dodecyl sulfate and Diethylene glycol), the percentage of separation was (60% and 50%) respectively.
The high proportion
... Show MoreThe CO2-Assisted Gravity Drainage process (GAGD) has been introduced to become one of the mostinfluential process to enhance oil recovery (EOR) methods in both secondary and tertiary recovery through immiscibleand miscible mode. Its advantages came from the ability of this process to provide gravity-stable oil displacement forenhancing oil recovery. Vertical injectors for CO2 gas have been placed at the crest of the pay zone to form a gas capwhich drain the oil towards the horizontal producing oil wells located above the oil-water-contact. The advantage ofhorizontal well is to provide big drainage area and small pressure drawdown due to the long penetration. Manysimulation and physical models of CO2-AGD process have been implemented
... Show MoreThe expansion in water projects implementations in Turkey and Syria becomes of great concern to the workers in the field of water resources management in Iraq. Such expansion with the absence of bi-lateral agreement between the three riparian countries of Tigris and Euphrates Rivers; Turkey, Syria and Iraq, is expected to lead to a substantially reduction of water inflow to the territories of Iraq. Accordingly, this study consists of two parts: first part is aiming to study the changes of the water inflow to the territory of Iraq, at Turkey and Syria borders, from 1953 to 2009; the results indicated that the annual mean inflow in Tigris River was decreased from 677 m3/sec to 526 m3/sec, after operating Turkey reserv
... Show MoreAbstract
Coronavirus has affected many people around the world and caused an increase in the number of hospitalized patients and deaths. The prediction factor may help the physician to classify whether the patient needs more medical attention to decrease mortality and worsening of symptoms. We aimed to study the possible relationship between C reactive protein level and the severity of symptoms and its effect on the prognosis of the disease. And determine patients who require closer respiratory monitoring and more aggressive supportive therapies to avoid poor prognosis. The data was gathered using medical record data, the patient's medical history, and the onset of symptoms, as well as a blood sample to test the
... Show MoreThe significance of the research conducted in northern Iraq comes despite the expansion of afforestation projects; yet, the suffering of the forests has increased due to their lack of scientific study, unpredictability of the climate, and adverse effects on the spread and growth of plant species Therefore, the goal of the study is to understand the effects of afforestation through a statistical analysis of plant diversity in northern Iraq and its distinctivenessThe analysis revealed that natural groupings had improved qualitatively more than other groups, particularly some dwindling species that are able to compete and occupy new areas. drought-prone vegetation, vegetation, and climat