The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The electrical and thermal performance of a typical single pass hybrid photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) air collector is modeled, simulated and analyzed for two selected case studies in Iraq. An improved mathematical thermo-electrical model is derived in terms of design, operating and climatic parameters of the hybrid solar collector to evaluate its important characteristics: collector flow and heat removal factors, PV maximum power point and its temperature coefficient, and overall power and efficiency. Unlike previous PV/T thermal models, the present model is obtained with some additions and corrections in radiation and convection heat coefficients for the top loss and for the air duct with more applicable sky temperature correlation. The well
... Show MoreIn order to obtain a mixed model with high significance and accurate alertness, it is necessary to search for the method that performs the task of selecting the most important variables to be included in the model, especially when the data under study suffers from the problem of multicollinearity as well as the problem of high dimensions. The research aims to compare some methods of choosing the explanatory variables and the estimation of the parameters of the regression model, which are Bayesian Ridge Regression (unbiased) and the adaptive Lasso regression model, using simulation. MSE was used to compare the methods.
Methods of estimating statistical distribution have attracted many researchers when it comes to fitting a specific distribution to data. However, when the data belong to more than one component, a popular distribution cannot be fitted to such data. To tackle this issue, mixture models are fitted by choosing the correct number of components that represent the data. This can be obvious in lifetime processes that are involved in a wide range of engineering applications as well as biological systems. In this paper, we introduce an application of estimating a finite mixture of Inverse Rayleigh distribution by the use of the Bayesian framework when considering the model as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We employed the Gibbs sampler and
... Show MoreTourism plays an important role in Malaysia’s economic development as it can boost business opportunity in its surrounding economic. By apply data mining on tourism data for predicting the area of business opportunity is a good choice. Data mining is the process that takes data as input and produces outputs knowledge. Due to the population of travelling in Asia country has increased in these few years. Many entrepreneurs start their owns business but there are some problems such as wrongly invest in the business fields and bad services quality which affected their business income. The objective of this paper is to use data mining technology to meet the business needs and customer needs of tourism enterprises and find the most effective
... Show MoreTwelve species from Brassicaceae family were studied using two different molecular techniques: RAPD and ISSR; both of these techniques were used to detect some molecular markers associated with the genotype identification. RAPD results, from using five random primers, revealed 241 amplified fragments, 62 of them were polymorphic (26%).
ISSR results showed that out of seven primers, three (ISSR3, UBC807, UBC811) could not amplify the genomic DNA; other primers revealed 183 amplified fragments, 36 of them were polymorphic (20%). The similarity evidence and dendrogram for the genetic distances of the incorporation between the two techniques showed that the highest similarity was 0.897 between the va
... Show MoreExploitation of mature oil fields around the world has forced researchers to develop new ways to optimize reservoir performance from such reservoirs. To achieve that, drilling horizontal wells is an effective method. The effectiveness of this kind of wells is to increase oil withdrawal. The objective of this study is to optimize the location, design, and completion of a new horizontal well as an oil producer to improve oil recovery in a real field located in Iraq. “A” is an oil and gas condensate field located in the Northeast of Iraq. From field production history, it is realized the difficulty to control gas and water production in this kind of complex carbonate reservoir with vertical producer wells. In this study, a horizont
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